A warning for Ukraine and democracies worldwide: Russia’s “peace initiatives” cannot be trusted

Olha Konsevych

On 19 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey, announcing that Kyiv was preparing concrete proposals to “activate negotiations,” unlock prisoner exchanges and move forward on steps to end the war. The visit underscored Ukraine’s ongoing diplomatic activity and readiness for structured dialogue.

Moscow, meanwhile, continues to promote the same demands it put forward in Istanbul in March 2022. More than two years later, Russia’s core conditions have not changed.

Putin’s project of imperial restoration

Russian officials routinely present their long-standing demands as readiness for dialogue. But in substance, they amount to stripping Ukraine of the capacity to act as an independent state.

Mahabahu, together with Taras Zhovtenko, a Security Analyst at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, examined the Kremlin’s key demands. He explained why Moscow seeks not stability but a restored imperial order.

“The notions of ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ are tools allowing Russia to deprive Ukraine of political subjectivity. Moscow seeks conditions under which the Ukrainian state would be unable to defend itself — neither internally nor externally. This is essentially a mechanism for installing a political regime maximally loyal to the Kremlin,” he believes.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that the Kremlin actively promotes the narrative of the “illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government,” referred to as the “Kyiv regime,” as a political foundation for its demands.

Analytical publications in the field of disinformation emphasize that portraying Ukrainian leaders and the Ukrainian military as “Nazi,” “Western-controlled,” “subordinate,” and “illegitimate” is not incidental but a systematic component of Russian propaganda.

“Russian propaganda deliberately distorts historical context. The Kremlin insists it alone defeated Nazism in Europe and uses this narrative to justify modern imperial ambitions. If Ukraine is portrayed as having a ‘Nazi regime,’ then, in Russian logic, that “regime” must be removed and replaced by an administration subordinate to Moscow,” Zhovtenko admitted.

Ukraine’s “non-admission to NATO”

Moscow insists that Ukraine renounce NATO membership “once and forever.” The issue is not legal formality but strategic leverage. A Ukraine outside NATO is a Ukraine without robust security guarantees.

As Taras Zhovtenko stated, Russia’s strategic objective has not changed: to push NATO out of Central and Eastern Europe and turn Ukraine into a buffer zone. “Whether this is achieved through undermining the Alliance from within or through direct confrontation is secondary for the Kremlin,” the expert explained.

ISW notes repeatedly that Russia is also attempting to weaken NATO internally via information operations, political interference, sabotage, and energy pressure. Ukraine is the first line in this broader geopolitical confrontation.

“For Ukraine to become ‘safe’ for Russia, it must be disarmed. This is a direct path to losing control over territory, the economy, and political decision-making. Without a capable military, no state can maintain either security or independence,” Zhovtenko added.

“Protection of Russian-speakers”: intervention, not human-rights advocacy

For decades, Russia has used claims of “protecting Russian-speaking populations” to intervene in neighboring states — in Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic states, and of course – Ukraine. This rhetoric has nothing to do with actual human rights.

The Carnegie Endowment reports that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), once tied to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) and now under scrutiny in Ukraine, has been portrayed by Moscow as a “victim” in need of protection – a narrative that the Kremlin exploits to justify its intervention.

“If Russia did not politicize language and religion, nobody would touch Russian-speakers or the UOC Moscow Patriarchate. But the Kremlin employs these groups as tools of influence and destabilization. Therefore either we allow this influence to persist or we restrict it for reasons of national security,” Zhovtenko emphasized.

The expert presents Bulgaria’s actions as solutions. In September 2023, Bulgarian authorities expelled one Russian and two Belarusian clerics — members of the Russian Orthodox Church in Sofia – on grounds of national-security concerns. Their activities were described by Bulgaria’s State Agency for National Security as “related to the implementation of various elements of the Russian Federation’s hybrid strategy for purposefully influencing the socio-political processes in the Republic of Bulgaria in favour of Russian geopolitical interests.”

Bulgaria’s decision came in the broader context of dozens of earlier expulsions of Russian diplomatic staff and was framed as part of the country’s effort to safeguard its sovereignty from covert foreign interference.

Other reputable analytical institutions – ISW, RAND, British intelligence – conclude that Moscow is not seeking compromise. Russia seeks an operational pause, not a settlement.

Olha Konsevych: Journalist, researcher | Vital Voices | GMF | WZB Berlin | Max Planck Society alumna || Mahabahu Correspondent

Mahabahu.com is an Online Magazine with collection of premium Assamese and English articles and posts with cultural base and modern thinking. You can send your articles to editor@mahabahu.com / editor@mahabahoo.com (For Assamese article, Unicode font is necessary) Images from different sources.