Accelerating Towards a Global Food Crisis

Accelerating Towards a Global Food Crisis

RITURAJ PHUKAN

The escalating volatility of our global climate is no longer a distant theoretical threat whispered in the corridors of power. We are now witnessing a systemic breakdown where the warming of our atmosphere is directly translating into a crisis of food security. Experts have warned that the world’s ability to feed itself is under threat from climate change, with the human population expected to grow by a further 2 billion by the end of the century. The interconnectedness of warming, water, and wildlife has reached a critical juncture that demands a fundamental reassessment of how we produce and protect our food.

Crop yields increased enormously as farming methods became increasingly efficient over the last 80 years, but now as yield rates flatten, warnings of efficiency limits and the impacts of climate change  are taking centre stage. Recent data paints a stark picture of a planet where traditional breadbaskets are under siege. From floods to droughts, erratic weather patterns are affecting food security, with crop yields projected to fall if systemic changes are not made.

Multiple projections suggest that climate change will soon lead to the production of key crops like rice, wheat, maize and soybeans plateauing, then sliding down again, under a high-emissions scenario. Extreme weather events pose a major threat to food security around the world. Some places have been hit by rainfall at twice the normal rate, whereas other usually wet places have  recorded months with barely any rain. In just the last two years, increasing weather extremes have had an impact on agriculture, with wild fluctuations in rainfall attributed to a number of record low yields. From Australia to Portugal to Puerto Rico to India, extreme weather events are affecting crop yields across the world, with the impacts rippling out to supply chains, industry and people.

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Between October and December 2024 heavy rainfall and flooding across Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines led to devastating harvest failures and loss of the staple rice corps in the region. Provinces across eastern China faced record rainfall and flooding between June and August in 2023 leading to the loss of tens of thousands of hectares of crops. About 2% of the country’s corn output were affected, while national rice production dropped by about 5% due to the floods.

The Global North has been equally affected by extreme weather. In 2024 England suffered its second worst harvest on record after heavy rains with a 20% drop in wheat production. . France saw a 25% drop in soft wheat production, its smallest harvest in 41 years. Wine harvests were down by as much as 75% in some regions.

The US, which has reversed many of its climate policies and withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, has had its share of extreme weather including cyclones, wildfires, flooding and droughts. The country experienced its driest autumn months on record in 2024, with three-quarters of the mainland affected. Extreme weather events caused over 20 billion US dollars in crop losses across the US last year.

The Amazon was hit by one of its worst-ever droughts in October and November 2024. Millions of people across Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Bolivia were affected, with Indigenous communities hit especially hard. The impact on food security went beyond the harvests, with countries struggling to export crops due to low river levels. Two years of severe drought in the region have left nearly half a million children facing shortages of water and food.

Southern Africa was also devasted by droughts during 2024, with Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe declaring a national disaster. Half of Zimbabwe’s maize crop was wiped out, while over 1m hectares of maize were destroyed in Zambia.

As temperatures rise, the geographical suitability for essential crops is shifting faster than communities can adapt. More than 600 million people worldwide are projected to face food insecurity by 2030. Increasingly erratic climates will only make the situation worse unless action is taken.

Maize, the world’s most produced crop, stands to be hit especially hard and in Africa alone, the production of maize could plummet by forty percent. Globally, maize yield is projected to drop by 6% in a low-warming scenario, and as much as 24% in extreme scenarios by the end of the century. In the tropical regions of Brazil, sub–Saharan Africa, and South Asia, the heat is pushing staples like maize and rice to their physiological limits. These are not just statistics but are the ingredients of a future where hunger becomes a permanent condition for the marginalized.

​The crisis is exacerbated by the proliferation of crop pests and diseases that thrive in a warmer world. Higher temperatures act as an accelerant for the metabolism and reproduction of insects. The prevalence of crop insect pests, which damage crops and reduce their yield, is increasing globally owing to changes in climate and land use, posing a threat to food security. In general, crop pests are responding to warming with expanded geographic ranges, advanced phenological events and increased number of reproductive generations per year. Increased pest damage under warming is projected to exacerbate yield losses of 46%, 19% and 31% under 2 °C warming for wheat, rice and maize, respectively.

In general, crop pests are responding to warming with expanded geographic ranges, advanced phenological events and increased number of reproductive generations per year. Increased pest damage under warming is projected to exacerbate yield losses of 46%, 19% and 31% under 2 °C warming for wheat, rice and maize, respectively.

The fall armyworm, once confined to the Americas, has now marched across Africa and Asia, devouring maize fields and threatening the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. In East Africa, massive swarms of desert locusts, fueled by unusual weather patterns and extreme rainfall, have decimated hundreds of thousands of hectares of pasture and cropland. This biological invasion is a direct consequence of our disrupted climate, creating a pincer movement against global food security.

​In Europe, the olive fruit fly and the grapevine moth are expanding their reach as winters become milder, surviving in regions that were once too cold for them. In the United States, the mountain pine beetle has destroyed millions of acres of forest, and similar trends are appearing in agricultural zones where pests like the corn earworm are moving northward into previously temperate latitudes. These shifts mean that farmers must spend more on chemical pesticides, which in turn harms the pollinators and biodiversity essential for a healthy ecosystem.

On the other hand, the documented collapse of wild insect populations in some countries, and the lack of reliable data in most tropical regions, is a matter of concern. Insects are by far the most varied and abundant animals on Earth, and they are essential to the ecosystems that humanity depends upon, pollinating plants, providing food for other creatures and recycling nature’s waste.

​The intensity of the hydrological cycle is adding another layer of peril. We are seeing a world of extremes where prolonged droughts are followed by violent deluges. In the mountains, the accelerated melting of the water towers of Asia means that the timing of water availability is becoming unpredictable. The reliance on seasonal rains is being replaced by a precarious dependence on sporadic weather events. This water insecurity is a primary driver of rural migration as farming becomes an impossible gamble.

​Furthermore, the nutritional quality of the food we grow is in decline. Research indicates that higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reduce the concentration of essential minerals like iron and zinc, as well as protein, in crops like wheat and rice. We face a future of hidden famine where people may have enough calories but suffer from deep micronutrient deficiencies. This qualitative decline will have long term consequences for public health, particularly for children in the global south who are already struggling with malnutrition.

​The global nature of food trade means that a crop failure in one region sends shockwaves through the entire system. When heatwaves hit the wheat fields of Russia or the soybean harvests in Argentina, global prices spike, pushing millions into poverty. The current model of industrialized agriculture, with its heavy reliance on monocultures and long supply chains, is proving to be remarkably brittle. To survive, we must pivot toward a more localized and regenerative approach. This means valuing the traditional knowledge of indigenous peoples who have long understood the necessity of crop diversification and natural pest management.

Smallholder farmers produce a third of the world’s food yet have the least access to climate resilient technologies or insurance. International cooperation must move toward tangible support for local adaptation, supporting decentralized water harvesting initiatives, safeguarding pollinators such as bees and other insects that facilitate seventy-five percent of global food crops, and ensuring that climate finance is effectively directed to frontline communities.

​The preservation of our natural habitats is also intrinsically linked to our food security. Forests act as regulators of local climates and provide shelter for natural predators like birds and bats that keep pest populations in check. When we clear forests for agricultural expansion, we destroy the very systems that protect our crops. A holistic view of conservation is required, one that sees the farm and the forest as part of a single, living landscape. Protecting biodiversity is a survival strategy for all of humanity.

​As we look toward the middle of the century, the choices we make today will determine whether we can avert a global hunger crisis. We need policies that penalize polluters and reward those who steward the land sustainably. We must empower the youth and indigenous leaders to be the primary communicators of this transformation. Our survival depends on our ability to restore the balance between our needs and the limits of our planet. We have the data and the information, but we now need the collective will to act before the harvest fails for the last time.

Rituraj Phukan: Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; Co-Founder, Smily Academy ;National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary. Rituraj Phukan is the Climate Editor, Mahabahu and Convenor, Mahabahu Climate Forum.

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