Assam Tea: Can Assam Tea Survive Climate Change?

KAKALI DAS

Tea in India has always been much more than a drink. It is the first cup that wakes people up at dawn, the comfort offered to guests, the steaming glass passed around at railway stations, and the break that fuels conversations in offices and roadside stalls alike. A pot of tea brings families together in the evenings, while a tiny roadside stall becomes a place where strangers share stories over sips.

For millions, tea is ritual, memory, and livelihood, woven deeply into the rhythm of daily life. But behind this ordinary comfort lies an extraordinary struggle. The tea gardens of Assam and Darjeeling, which once promised abundance, are now fighting to survive against the forces of a changing climate.

The weather has become unpredictable. Long spells of dryness are broken by sudden floods, the soil grows weaker, the bushes dry up, and the workers tire under a heat harsher than before. India still produces more than a billion kilograms of tea each year, but the numbers hide the cracks. Harvests are falling, exports are uncertain, costs are climbing, and the future of the world’s favourite brew has become fragile.

For nearly two centuries, the misty hills of Assam and Darjeeling have carried India’s tea tradition to the world. Assam alone accounts for more than half of the country’s production. But the skies no longer behave as they once did. Drought may strike in May, floods in June, and drought again in July. The delicate balance of warmth and rain that tea bushes depend on has been broken.

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The statistics reveal the crisis. In 2024, national output fell 7.8%, slipping from 688 million kilograms to 649 million. Across the country, production dropped to just under 1.3 billion kilograms. For planters, the financial damage has been severe.

“I may sound dramatic, but last year we almost went bankrupt. If we did not have income from other sources, including selling some of our real estate, our company would not have survived. It was that bad,” said Mrigendra Jalan, a tea estate owner.

The plants themselves are faltering. Tea bushes need stable warmth and humidity, but rainfall in Assam has fallen by more than 250 millimetres since 1921, while minimum temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius. Leaves that once grew thick and quickly are now fewer, weaker, and slower to appear. Some estates have lost up to 35% of their crops in a single season.

“Erratic rainfall and rising temperatures caused almost a 35% loss for us. We were far below our average crop and even worse than the year before, which was already a bad year,” explained Mrityunjay Jalan, another estate owner.

The workers who pluck the leaves feel this change most directly. In earlier decades, a picker could collect around 110 kilograms of fresh leaves in a day. Now, under the scorching sun, many struggle to gather even 60 kilograms. The harsher weather also encourages pests, forcing planters to use more irrigation and pesticides.

“We feel exhausted when it gets too hot. My head spins and my heart beats very fast. We can’t pluck as many leaves as before. It is especially hard during our monthly cycles, when the heat is unbearable,” said Manju Kurmi, a tea worker.

The economics tell another part of the story. Costs are rising between 8% and 29% every year, driven by higher wages, expensive fertilizers, and costly climate adaptations like irrigation, composting, and pruning. Yet tea prices have not kept pace.

Over the past three decades, auction prices have risen just 4.8% annually, while staple crops like rice and wheat have grown at nearly 10%. Only in 2023, when output plunged, did prices rise by almost 20%, reaching an average of ₹201 or about $2.28 per kilogram.

The prized crop of Assam is shrinking. Shorter harvesting windows and hotter conditions are cutting into yields. At the same time, many bushes planted during the colonial period are aging out of their 40 – 50 year productive life, giving less with each season. Replanting is urgent, but government support is too limited to spark meaningful change.

“The first need of the hour is diversification. Depending only on tea is too risky. So, in areas where tea doesn’t grow well, we have started cultivating other crops,” one estate owner said.

Meanwhile, India itself is drinking more of its own tea. Domestic consumption has surged by 23% in the past decade, reaching 1.2 billion kilograms, while production grew by only 6.3%. Today, about 80% of the tea grown in India is consumed within the country. Yet exports remain strong.

In 2024, India exported a record 255 million kilograms, up 10% from the previous year, making it the world’s second-largest tea exporter after Kenya. Black tea made up 96% of these shipments, sent mainly to markets like the UAE, Iraq, Iran, Russia, the US, and the UK. Still, imports nearly doubled to 45 million kilograms. The irony is hard to miss – the land of tea is importing tea.

The United Nations has warned that without urgent adaptation, India could lose up to 40% of its tea farms by 2050. Possible solutions exist: better water conservation, planting shade trees to protect bushes from heat, and moving toward organic farming. But all of this requires money, time, and strong willpower.

As one planter put it, “There’s no point only blaming climate change. Climate change is here to stay. We have to learn to live with it and work around it. What we can do is focus on mitigation.”

For now, the tea baskets of Assam still fill with leaves at dawn. Workers walk the green rows with nimble fingers, filling their bamboo baskets. Factories still wither, roll, and dry the leaves, sending them on journeys to cups across the world. In countless homes, a kettle still whistles, and the familiar aroma of tea still drifts through kitchens.

But behind this daily comfort lies a growing unease. Every sip carries with it the question of how long this tradition, this livelihood, and this cultural treasure can survive the grip of a changing climate.

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