Can any airline challenge the Boeing & Airbus’ duopoly?

KAKALI DAS

It’s your day to visit the local bookstore – from bestsellers to classic novels and beyond – you’re eager to pick up some new reads and replenish your personal library.

But what if you step inside and find the shelves almost bare, with only two books remaining, one damaged beyond repair and the other with pages missing?

Can any airline challenge the Boeing and Airbus’ duopoly?

This is the reality the global aviation industry faces today. After years of consolidations, mergers, and bankruptcies, only two major aircraft manufacturers remain – America’s Boeing and Europe’s Airbus.

Last month, the renowned global air show concluded in Farnborough, Britain – an event usually teeming with new jet orders for aircraft manufacturers. This year, however, the scene was markedly different, with only a few orders placed. Aviation industry experts have even described the 2024 Farnborough air show as the worst in the past 18 years.

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However, this came as no surprise. Leading up to the week-long event, the industry was already grappling with significant challenges. “There’s a major issue with parts availability in the supply chain, and this is critical because you need seats and all those small components that are essential to assemble an aircraft. Both Airbus and Boeing are facing these shortages, and airlines are being forced to wait. This is a major problem in the industry right now,” said Sally Gethin, Aviation Analyst.

Boeing and Airbus jets together account for around 86% of the aircraft in service. Of the approximately 28,954 passenger jets operated by global airlines, over 13,016 are manufactured by Boeing, while about 11,873 come from Airbus. The remaining fleet is made up of aircraft from smaller manufacturers like Brazil’s Embraer and Canada’s Bombardier.

So how did Boeing and Airbus rise to dominate the aviation sector? How did Boeing and Airbus become the giants of the industry?

Boeing was founded in 1916 by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington, and quickly established itself as a cornerstone of American aviation. During World War II, its fighter jets played pivotal roles. After the war, Boeing shifted its focus to civilian aviation, leveraging its expertise to expand into commercial aircraft.

In 1957, Boeing introduced the 707 model, ushering in the jet age and revolutionizing long-distance travel. As Boeing expanded, so did its influence in the industry. In 1997, it merged with McDonnell Douglas, solidifying Boeing’s dominance in both commercial and military aviation.

The exit of other players, like Lockheed Martin, from the commercial aircraft business further bolstered Boeing’s position. It emerged as the sole major commercial aircraft manufacturer in the United States.

As Boeing dominated the market, European nations grew increasingly concerned. In response, they decided to collaborate and formed Airbus in 1970. Led by a consortium of aerospace companies from France, Germany, Spain, and the UK, their aim was to challenge American dominance in commercial aviation.

Airbus’s first aircraft, the A300, took flight in 1972 as the world’s first wide-body twin-engine airliner, a significant innovation at a time when most long-haul flights used three or four engines. Airbus continued to advance by introducing the A320 in 1987.

Challenges that Boeing and Airbus face

Boeing and Airbus provide a range of products for every segment of commercial aviation, from regional jets to long-haul wide-body aircraft. However, both giants are encountering significant challenges.

Boeing’s jets have faced intense scrutiny this year. The troubles began on January 5th, when a door panel of a Boeing 737 Max detached mid-air in the United States. This incident set off a chain of negative developments for Boeing. Initially, US regulators imposed restrictions on the plane maker’s production. Subsequently, reports of irregularities at its factory emerged, and multiple whistle-blowers exposed troubling practices at Boeing and its suppliers.

Meanwhile, Airbus is grappling with its own challenges. Supply chain bottlenecks, especially in obtaining critical components like engines and aerostructures, have severely impacted Airbus’s production. Additionally, the company has encountered labour shortages, leading it to lower its production target for 2024.

Both Boeing and Airbus are dealing with substantial backlogs. Airbus has approximately 8,600 planes to deliver to airlines, while Boeing faces 6,150 unfulfilled orders. According to estimates, at the current production rate, it would take about 12 years to clear these backlogs. Despite this, demand for new aircraft continues to rise.

Established Players and New Entrants

This situation has frustrated airline companies, but their options are limited. Nevertheless, there are some challenges to Airbus and Boeing, although most competitors are still significantly behind. For example, Brazil’s Embraer has been a prominent supplier of regional jets, with its E-Jet family achieving success with several major airlines. However, experts argue that Embraer lacks the engineering capabilities required to challenge the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing.

Meanwhile, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation has developed the IRKUT MC-21, a narrow-body jet intended to compete with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. However, Western sanctions imposed on Moscow due to the war in Ukraine have significantly hindered its prospects.

Experts consider the most significant threat to the duopoly to be China. Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China or COMAC, the state-owned aerospace manufacturer, has heavily invested in developing its own commercial aircraft.

Reports indicate that the Chinese government has invested approximately $72 billion to develop the C919 passenger jet, a narrow-body aircraft similar to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. After years of delays, the C919 has finally entered commercial service. The aircraft manufacturer has also secured over 1,000 orders, primarily from Chinese airlines.

However, the C919 faces substantial challenges. Its technology trails behind that of Boeing and Airbus, and it has yet to secure significant orders outside of China. Additionally, it must obtain approval from Western aviation regulators to operate international flights.

Experts note that there are significant barriers for new entrants in the commercial aviation industry. Developing a new airliner can cost $20 to $30 billion or more, though the potential rewards are substantial.

According to Boeing’s projections, the global passenger fleet is expected to double over the next two decades. Airlines will need 44,000 new aircraft to meet this demand. This significant growth presents opportunities for new entrants in the market.

However, the key question remains: Can COMAC or another challenger break Airbus and Boeing’s duopoly? The answer to this will shape the future of commercial aviation, influencing how we travel, trade, and connect globally in the decades ahead.

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