CLIMATE CHANGE IS EVERYWHERE

KAKALI DAS

Climate change is no longer a distant warning from scientists or a problem limited to polar bears and melting glaciers. Climate change is everywhere. It is in the rising heat of our cities, in the changing rhythm of the monsoon, in stronger cyclones over warm oceans, in melting mountain ice, in forest fires, in floods, in droughts, and in the daily lives of people across continents. The science is clear, the data is overwhelming, and the impacts are already unfolding at a speed that is deeply concerning.

For nearly 100000 years, the Earth’s climate moved within a relatively narrow range. Human civilization developed during the last 10000 years in a stable period known as the Holocene. During this time, the average global temperature remained close to about 14 degrees Celsius, with small variations of roughly half a degree. This stability allowed agriculture to flourish, cities to grow, trade routes to expand, and societies to advance. Today, that stability is being disrupted. The planet has already warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels.

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In 2023, the global average temperature briefly crossed 1.5 degrees Celsius. In 2024, global temperatures averaged around 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre industrial baseline, making it the warmest year ever recorded.

What worries scientists is not only the warming itself but the speed of change. Over the past 50 years, global temperatures increased at an average rate of about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade. Since around 2014, that rate has accelerated to approximately 0.26 degrees Celsius per decade. If current trends continue, the world could cross 2 degrees Celsius of warming within the next two decades and approach around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Such warming would have profound consequences for ecosystems, economies, and

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Global warming happens because of the greenhouse effect. Certain gases in the atmosphere trap heat from the sun and keep the Earth warm enough to support life. Without this natural greenhouse effect, the planet would be too cold. However, human activities have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases to levels not seen in millions of years. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the main contributors. In 2024, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exceeded 420 parts per million, compared to about 280 parts per million before the Industrial Revolution. This sharp rise is directly linked to fossil fuel burning, deforestation, and industrial processes.

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor to human caused climate change because it is emitted in massive quantities and remains in the atmosphere for centuries. Methane is more powerful in the short term, trapping much more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide, but it stays in the atmosphere for a shorter period. Nitrous oxide is also a potent greenhouse gas, largely produced by agricultural fertilizers and industrial processes. Together, these gases are thickening the heat trapping blanket around the planet.

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Human activity is the primary driver of this increase. Since the eighteenth century, the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas has powered industrial growth, transportation, electricity generation, and modern lifestyles. In 2022, global greenhouse gas emissions reached approximately 57 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the highest level ever recorded. Emissions continued to rise in 2023. The energy sector accounts for the largest share of emissions, including electricity and heat production. Transport, industry, and buildings also contribute significantly.

Agriculture, forestry, and land use change are major sources as well. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agriculture and land use together contribute around 20 to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Livestock produce methane through digestion. Fertilizers release nitrous oxide. Deforestation releases carbon stored in trees and soils. When forests are cleared for farming or development, the carbon sink that once absorbed emissions becomes a source of emissions.

Cement manufacturing is another important but often overlooked source of carbon dioxide. The chemical process of converting limestone into clinker releases carbon dioxide directly. Globally, cement production accounts for roughly 7 to 8 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions. This shows how deeply climate change is connected to modern infrastructure and development.

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Aerosols also influence climate. These tiny particles come from burning fossil fuels, industrial pollution, and biomass burning. Some aerosols reflect sunlight and create a temporary cooling effect. Others absorb heat. While aerosols can slightly mask warming, they are harmful to human health and do not cancel the long term warming caused by greenhouse gases.

The period since the 1950s is often called the Great Acceleration. During this time, human population, energy use, water consumption, fertilizer use, plastic production, and industrial output increased dramatically. At the same time, biodiversity loss accelerated. Scientists now warn that we are in the middle of a sixth mass extinction. Freshwater systems are under pressure. Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles are disturbed by heavy fertilizer use. Forests are disappearing at alarming rates. All these pressures weaken the stability of the Earth system.

Climate change is already affecting economies. In recent years, the United States has experienced climate related disasters causing more than 100 billion dollars in damages annually. Globally, economic studies estimate that unchecked climate change could reduce global GDP by up to 18 percent by mid century. These losses represent damaged infrastructure, lost harvests, disrupted supply chains, health crises, and deepening inequality.

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Extreme heat is one of the clearest signs that climate change is everywhere. In 2023, temperatures around 40 degrees Celsius affected large parts of Asia, Europe, North America, and Africa. During the 2024 Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, temperatures rose above 50 degrees Celsius, contributing to the deaths of more than 1000 people. Scientific studies show that climate change has made such extreme heat events at least three times more likely.

Oceans are absorbing around 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Sea surface temperatures in 2023 reached record highs, about 0.4 degrees Celsius above previous records. The ocean has warmed down to depths of 2000 meters. Each year, the Earth system absorbs heat equal to about 300 times the world’s annual electricity consumption. This energy imbalance is a powerful signal of how much the climate system is changing.

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Nature has so far absorbed about 53 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans. Land ecosystems absorb roughly 30 percent each year, and oceans absorb around 25 percent. However, scientists are seeing warning signs that this buffering capacity may be weakening. Parts of the Amazon rainforest are turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources due to deforestation and drought. Boreal forests are suffering from heat and fires. If these systems weaken further, more carbon will remain in the atmosphere.

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Climate change is significantly accelerating forest fires in India, particularly in the Himalayas and the Northeast, by causing rising temperatures, prolonged dry spells, and erratic monsoons. Forests cover around 21.67 % of India’s land, and nearly 36 % of this forest cover is prone to frequent forest fires, according to the India State of Forest Report, highlighting a growing climate-driven vulnerability in the country’s ecosystems. Regions such as the Himalayas, Western Ghats, and North-eastern forests are especially susceptible to these fires due to increased heat stress and moisture deficits.

The Forest Survey of India reported that 4 % of India’s forests are extremely fire-prone and 6 % are very highly fire-prone, with parts of northern and northeastern India showing the highest concentrations of fire events. This combination of climate and land use pressures is worsening fire seasons and threatening biodiversity, forest health, and local livelihoods.

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Forest fire incidents have been increasing sharply. In Odisha alone, approximately 27 120 fire outbreaks were recorded between November 2024 and June 2025, showing how intense and widespread the risk has become. Satellite data shows that over half of India’s forests have experienced occasional fires in recent years, with heatwaves and dry conditions amplifying the danger.

In the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh, forest fire incidents increased seven times in one winter compared to the previous year, illustrating how changing climate patterns are extending fire seasons and increasing their severity. These fires contribute to carbon emissions, habitat loss, and degradation of critical watersheds in mountain regions, undermining ecosystem stability and increasing threats to communities that depend on forest resources for livelihood and cultural identity.

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The impacts of the climate emergency are not limited to forests and weather extremes. One example of climate emergency consequences is melting ice in high-altitude regions such as the Himalayas, which provide freshwater to billions of people. Reports indicate that if global temperatures rise by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, up to 75 % of Himalayan glacier ice could disappear, threatening water supplies and ecosystems.

This leads to the concept of tipping points. Scientists are increasingly confident that humanity may have already crossed at least one major climate tipping point. A tipping point is a critical threshold in the Earth system. When crossed, changes become self reinforcing and difficult to reverse. These shifts can include the collapse of ecosystems, the melting of massive ice sheets, or the breakdown of ocean currents.

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Many climate systems may begin tipping around 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. For the first time in recorded history, the planet has experienced a full calendar year at or above this level. Tipping points are nonlinear. Small temperature increases can trigger very large changes. Once these changes begin, they may continue even if emissions are reduced.

There is a belief that people do not act because climate change feels distant. But a survey reveals that 91% of Indians say they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, yet 38% do not agree that humans are the main cause. And, about 76 percent of Americans say climate change is already affecting their daily lives. The greater risk may be that climate change can suddenly accelerate and become much harder to control.

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One major tipping system is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC. This ocean current moves warm water northward and cold water southward. It keeps Western Europe relatively mild. If AMOC collapses, winter temperatures in parts of Europe could drop by 5 to 10 degrees Celsius. Sea ice could extend further south. Monsoon systems in India and West Africa could shift or fail, threatening food and water for hundreds of millions of people.

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The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are also critical. Together, they hold enough ice to raise global sea levels by about 10 meters over time. West Antarctica alone could raise sea levels by about five meters. Once melting crosses a threshold, it could become unstoppable.

Permafrost in the Arctic contains roughly twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere. As it thaws, it releases carbon dioxide and methane, creating a feedback loop. Scientists are already observing abrupt thaw events and methane release.

Coral reefs may be among the first systems to tip. Temporary warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius has caused widespread coral bleaching. Without rapid action, 70 to 90 percent of coral reefs could disappear in coming decades. Coral reefs protect coastlines, support fisheries, and sustain tourism economies.

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The Amazon rainforest is another concern. If deforestation reaches about 20 to 25 percent of its original area, combined with warming, it could shift from rainforest to savanna. Current deforestation is already around 17 percent. The Amazon may tip between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius if pressures continue.

Scientists estimate that to have a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, humanity can emit only about 200 billion more tons of carbon dioxide. We currently emit about 40 billion tons per year. At this rate, the carbon budget will be exhausted within five years. Emissions must decline by roughly 7 percent per year to reach net zero around mid century.

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Despite these risks, there are positive tipping points. Renewable energy is one example. The cost of solar power has fallen by more than 90 percent since the 1970s. Each doubling of solar capacity reduces costs by about 20 percent. In 2024, most new electricity capacity added globally came from renewable sources. Battery costs have also fallen sharply.

China produces more than 80 percent of global solar panels and around 75 percent of electric vehicle batteries. India is rapidly expanding solar capacity. In parts of Africa, solar energy is bringing electricity to communities for the first time. Renewable energy is becoming the cheapest source of new power in many regions.

However, fossil fuel subsidies remain high. Globally, subsidies for fossil fuels amount to trillions of dollars annually when direct and indirect costs are included. This slows the transition. We are in a race between negative tipping points in the climate system and positive tipping points in clean energy.

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The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals recognize climate action as essential. SDG 13 calls for urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Climate change affects food security, water availability, health, education, and economic development. Vulnerable communities, especially in low income countries, are suffering the most despite contributing the least to emissions.

Climate change is everywhere. It is in the rising seas threatening coastal cities. It is in the heatwaves affecting farmers and workers. It is in the floods displacing families. It is in the shifting seasons altering crops and ecosystems. It is in the economy, in public health, and in global security.

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Yet solutions exist. Renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable agriculture, forest protection, and ecosystem restoration can reduce emissions and strengthen resilience. The challenge is speed and scale. Incremental change is no longer enough. Rapid and transformative action is needed.

The next decade will determine the future of the planet. The science is clear. The data is compelling. The risks are serious, but the opportunities are real. If humanity acts boldly, we can tip toward a cleaner, safer, and more just world. If we delay, we risk crossing thresholds that cannot be undone. Climate change is everywhere, but so is the potential for change. The choice is ours, and the time to act is now.

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