COP 27 - Now or Never: IPCC’s Last Warning?

COP 27: IPCC’s Last Warning

Rituraj Phukan

Humanity is at a crossroads on climate action and the window of opportunity to avoid catastrophic impacts in narrowing down rapidly.

Although average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history during 2010-2019, the rate of growth has slowed. Despite the gloomy outlook, scientists see hope in the increasing evidence of climate action, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

‘Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change’, the Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.

The report says greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025, which gives policymakers a timeframe of around 30 months to bend the curve of a hundred years of increase.

The target of limiting warming to 1.5°C will require at least 43% reduction of emissions, including one-third decrease of methane emissions within this decade. Further, the report says it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily experience ‘climate overshoot’ or exceed the 1.5°C threshold even with these reductions, before temperatures return to safer limits.

COP 27 - Now or Never: IPCC’s Last Warning — Green Power

Global temperature will stabilize when carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. For 1.5°C, this means achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally in the early 2050s; for 2°C, it is in the early 2070s. This assessment shows that limiting warming to around 2°C still requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by a quarter by 2030.

The race to limit warming to 1.5C must include an end to all new fossil fuel infrastructure while phasing out coal. The report called for cancellation of new projects, retirement of existing fossil fuel infrastructure and a switch to lower-carbon fuels. For the first time the IPCC said that CO2 removal technologies might be necessary to ensure roll back of climate overshoot.

It introduces a chapter dedicated to analyzing the ‘demand side’ of what drives consumption and how behavioral and cultural changes could cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 40-70% “compared to baseline scenarios”. The report refers to the lockdowns during the Covid19 pandemic which “demonstrated that behavioral change at a massive scale and in a short time is possible”.

There is another new chapter on innovation, technology development and transfer, which describes how a well-established innovation system at a national level, guided by well-designed policies, can contribute to mitigation, adaptation and achieving the sustainable development goals, while avoiding undesired consequences.

Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries. An increasing range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy. Limiting global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector. This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen.

The report points out that around 42% of global emissions are associated with food systems, even though “there is still widespread food insecurity and malnutrition.” The food sector dominates household carbon footprints across all income groups with rice and cattle being the major contributors. The authors concur that sustainable food systems are achievable with better agricultural practices, diet-change and waste reduction across all associated sectors.

Cities and other urban areas also offer significant opportunities for emissions reductions. These can be achieved through lower energy consumption, electrification of transport in combination with low-emission energy sources, and enhanced carbon uptake and storage using nature. There are options for established rapidly growing and new cities.

Reducing emissions in industry will involve using materials more efficiently, reusing and recycling products and minimizing waste. For basic materials, including steel, building materials and chemicals, low- to zero-greenhouse gas production processes are at their pilot to near-commercial stage. This sector accounts for about a quarter of global emissions. Achieving net zero will be challenging and will require new production processes, low and zero emissions electricity, hydrogen, and, where necessary, carbon capture and storage.

The report looks beyond technologies and demonstrates that while financial flows are a factor of three to six times lower than levels needed by 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C, there is sufficient global capital and liquidity to close investment gaps. However, it relies on clear signaling from governments and the international community, including a stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy.

Accelerated and equitable climate action in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Some response options can absorb and store carbon and, at the same time, help communities limit the impacts associated with climate change.

For example, in cities, networks of parks and open spaces, wetlands and urban agriculture can reduce flood risk and reduce heat-island effects. Mitigation in industry can reduce environmental impacts and increase employment and business opportunities. Electrification with renewables and shifts in public transport can enhance health, employment, and equity.

The IPCC dwells on the costs and benefits of mitigation and stressing that “the global economic benefit of limiting warming to 2C is reported to exceed the cost of mitigation in most of the assessed literature”.

Further, it points out that “the economic benefits on human health from air quality improvement arising from mitigation action can be of the same order of magnitude as mitigation costs, and potentially even larger”.

It is evident that future scenarios incorporating implemented climate policies poses significant risks to human and natural systems. In other words, we are not doing enough to contain and reduce emissions, jeopardizing the Paris Agreement goals and the future of humans on Earth.

This report could possibly be the last warning before inaction pushes us down the abyss of complete climate chaos. It is the “Now or Never” moment for human civilization.

[Images from different sources]

(Writer Rituraj Phukan is the Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India ; National Coordinator, Citizens Climate International; COO, Walk For Water; Secretary General, Green Guard Nature Organization ; Ambassador, European Climate Pact; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Assam Coordinator, Kids For Tigers, the Sanctuary Tiger Programme; Associate Editor, Igniting Minds; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary)

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