At the heart of the COP28 agreement is the establishment of the world’s first ‘global stocktake.’ This mechanism is designed to intensify climate action over the next decade, with a primary objective of maintaining the global temperature increase within the critical limit of 1.5°C.
The global stocktake emerged as a central focus of COP28, encompassing every aspect of the negotiations. It is positioned as a tool that participating nations can leverage to fortify their climate action plans, which are slated for submission by 2025.
Recognizing the urgency of the climate crisis, the agreement underscores the need for substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions—43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels—to align with the 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement.
While the COP28 agreement refrains from an immediate cessation of fossil fuel usage, it is being heralded as the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell, emphasized this point in the closing speech, asserting that the outcome sets the stage for a transformative shift.
The agreement explicitly calls for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, with the ultimate goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
This historic recognition of the need to move away from fossil fuels is a significant departure from previous climate agreements.
More than 100 countries advocated for robust language in the COP28 agreement to explicitly “phase out” oil, gas, and coal. However, this proposition faced resistance, notably from the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC, which argued for emissions reduction without singling out specific fuels.
A source familiar with Saudi Arabia’s stance indicated that the agreement, as formulated, provides a flexible “menu” for each country to determine its own pathway toward the energy transition. This flexibility seeks to accommodate diverse national circumstances and preferences, highlighting the delicate balance required in addressing the global energy transition.
Climate finance emerged as a critical focal point during COP28, with Simon Stiell repeatedly highlighting its role as the “great enabler of climate action.” The Green Climate Fund (GCF) experienced a boost in its second replenishment, garnering pledges totaling a record USD 12.8 billion from 31 countries.
The commitments are expected to support initiatives aimed at aiding developing nations in clean energy transitions, implementing national climate plans, and bolstering adaptation efforts.
In addition to the GCF, commitments were made to the Least Developed Countries Fund and Special Climate Change Fund, totaling over USD 174 million.
The Adaptation Fund also received new pledges, approaching USD 188 million. However, the COP28 global stocktake underscored that these financial commitments are insufficient to meet the trillions required to support developing countries comprehensively.
Addressing the financial gap is crucial for delivering on climate promises. Discussions during COP28 laid the groundwork for setting a ‘new collective quantified goal on climate finance’ in 2024.
This goal, starting from a baseline of USD 100 billion per year, is anticipated to play a pivotal role in shaping and implementing national climate plans by 2025.
The two-week-long conference commenced with the World Climate Action Summit, where 154 Heads of States and Government convened. Notably, COP28 achieved a historic agreement on the operationalization of the loss and damage fund and funding arrangements.
The decision to host the secretariat of the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN Office for Project Services further advances efforts to assist vulnerable developing countries in addressing climate-induced challenges.
Parties at COP28 also reached agreements on targets for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and its framework. This framework establishes global consensus on adaptation targets and emphasizes the need for financial, technological, and capacity-building support to achieve them.
These agreements underscore the comprehensive approach required to strengthen global resilience to the impacts of climate change.
Looking Ahead: COP29 and COP30
As COP28 concluded, eyes turned to the future, with discussions shaping the roadmap for the coming years. The conference agreed that Azerbaijan would host COP29 in 2024, followed by Brazil as the host for COP30 in 2025.
These upcoming summits are anticipated to play a critical role in maintaining momentum and ensuring that the commitments made at COP28 translate into tangible action.
The next two years leading up to COP30 are deemed critical, with governments urged to establish a new climate finance goal at COP29, reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge.
Additionally, countries are expected to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in early 2025, aligning with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
The urgency of these actions is underscored by the COP28 Global Stocktake, which revealed that progress is not happening fast enough.
The achievements of COP28 are juxtaposed against challenges related to human rights and civic engagement. Amnesty International raised concerns about restrictions on civil society during the summit, particularly in the host country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Amnesty highlighted the UAE’s contempt for human rights, emphasizing the need for stronger safeguards in hosting arrangements for future COPs.
The limitations on civic space at COP28, including stringent regulations on protests and actions, cast a shadow over the principles of freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.
The UNFCCC’s enforcement of protest guidelines and widespread video surveillance created an atmosphere of intimidation. Amnesty International called for strengthened hosting arrangements, transparent Host Country Agreements, and a clear conflict of interest policy for future COPs.
COP28 marks a historic juncture in the global effort to address the climate crisis. The agreement’s recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels, coupled with commitments to global stocktakes, financial support, and adaptation goals, reflects progress.
However, the challenges of implementation, ensuring financial commitments are met, and addressing human rights concerns underscore the complexity of the path ahead.
The urgency of climate action demands sustained commitment and collaboration, with future COPs playing a crucial role in shaping the trajectory toward a sustainable and climate-resilient future.
14-12-2023
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