COP27: A Watershed for Action on Climate Change

A Watershed for Action on Climate Change: COP27

Rituraj Phukan

In just a few days, world leaders, negotiators and civil society observers will converge in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt, for the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27).

As the clock winds down on the annual conference, expectations are high, with the contentious issues of loss and damage and climate finance again likely to be central to the negotiations.

A plethora of reports this week has reemphasized the perils of further dithering during these critical negotiations adding to the pressure on all stakeholders.

Record floods and droughts have undermined development gains in the Global South while unprecedented storms have pummeled coastal communities in many regions. The world is quite literally struggling to recover from the extended pandemic and the war in Europe, which have both caused devastating loss of life, threatened energy crises, and triggered a global food security alarm.

The United Nations has established a Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy, and Finance, to track and address the dangers inherent in these crises, and to ensure emergency response measures are designed to align with long-term sustainability and resilience imperatives. It is therefore a difficult and stressful time for all stakeholders to get down to the business of avoiding catastrophic climate change.

A new report from UN Climate Change show that countries are bending the curve of global greenhouse gas emissions downward but underlines that these efforts remain insufficient to contain global temperature rise within the envisioned threshold. The combined climate pledges of 193 Parties under the Paris Agreement would put the world on track for around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.

COP27: A Watershed for Action on Climate Change

Keeping the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C within reach will require an enormous acceleration of transformations across all systems this decade.

The same publication also shows current commitments will increase emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

Last year’s analysis showed projected emissions would continue to increase beyond 2030. However, this year’s analysis shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

The IPCC’s 2018 report indicated that CO2 emissions needed to be cut 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels. The latest science from the IPCC released earlier this year uses 2019 as a baseline, indicating that GHG emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030. This is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst projected impacts of a warming planet on human civilization.

A second UN Climate Change report on long-term low-emission development strategies looked at countries’ plans to transition to net-zero emissions by or around mid-century. The report indicated that these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 68% per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time.

The report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now. Ambitious climate action before 2030 is urgently needed to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.

The ‘United in Science’ study coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization highlighted the huge gap between aspirations and reality. GHG concentrations continue to rise to record highs and emission rates are now above pre-pandemic levels after the temporary drop during lockdown period. The report pointed out that pledges for 2030 needs to be seven times higher to be in line with the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement.

All countries are expected to arrive at Sharm El-Sheikh with new emissions reduction commitments, bettering the record of Glasgow last year where more than 100 nations declared reduction commitments and yet fell well short of the requirements for the Paris Agreement target.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires transforming almost all systems, from how we power our economy and build our cities to how we feed a growing population and manage our land.

But these transformations are not occurring nearly fast enough. Although there are some signs of progress, the window to limit warming to 1.5°C is rapidly closing, with national 2030 climate commitments, even when fully implemented, leading to roughly 2.4°C to 2.8°C. Getting on track to achieve 2030 targets will require an enormous acceleration in effort.

It has been seven years since the historic Paris Agreement, yet global Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, despite the exponential rise in extreme weather events and other manifestations of a warming planet.

The past seven years have been the warmest on record and there is a 48% chance that the annual mean temperature will temporarily be 1.5°C higher than 1850-1900 average during at least one year within the next 5 years. Another recent report found that unchecked climate change could cost the global economy US$178 trillion over the next 50 years, unless our leaders are able to inspire the world towards a systemic net-zero transition.

The leadership of the host country Egypt have announced that the focus of international action at COP27 should be moving from “pledges to implementation”. During COP26, over a hundred thousand people marched through the streets of Glasgow seeking climate justice for communities at the frontlines.

Reflecting the momentum on climate justice, the hosts have also reiterated the need for developed countries to fulfill their financial commitments urgently as much of the Global South face an uncertain future due to the pandemic, economic slowdown and climate change impacts.

The announcement of Coca Cola as a sponsor put a damper on expectations, prompting backlash from environmentalists the world over. Come what may, the upcoming COP27 will likely evolve as a watershed moment for climate action.

[Writer Rituraj Phukan is the Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India ; National Coordinator, Citizens Climate International; COO, Walk For Water; Secretary General, Green Guard Nature Organization ; Ambassador, European Climate Pact; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Assam Coordinator, Kids For Tigers, the Sanctuary Tiger Programme; Associate Editor, Igniting Minds; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary.]

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