COP28: A Crucial Confrontation on Climate, Petrostates, Fossil Fuels, and the Human Future

MAHABAHU TEAM (From COP28, DUBAI)

The 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the 1994 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has become a focal point in the ongoing battle against climate change.

Taking place in the United Arab Emirates, this conference sets the stage for a pivotal moment where the urgency of the climate crisis collides with the interests of petrostates, prompting profound questions about the trajectory of humanity’s future.

The Unprecedented Petrostate Presidency

The shockwaves were palpable when a petrostate, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), secured the presidency for COP28. Led by Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the conference’s leadership raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

With oil and gas playing a significant role in the UAE’s economy, leaked documents revealing the host state’s pursuit of new oil trade deals have added a layer of complexity, sparking outrage and eroding the credibility of the conference.

IMG 20231203 WA0021 — Indigenous People with Mahabahu in Dubai

Global Emissions

Over the past three decades, global emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases have surged by half, defying the promises of nations to curtail them. COP28 unfolds against the backdrop of a confrontation between petrostates determined to bolster oil and gas production and vulnerable nations foreseeing an existential threat.

Small island states, already grappling with the consequences of climate change, express dismay at the prospect of political failure, revealing a stark clash over the human future.

IMG 20231203 WA0033 — Mahabahu in COP28, Dubai

The Paradox of Petrostate Power

The paradox intensifies as petrostates, including the UAE, plan substantial increases in oil and gas production despite the escalating climate crisis. The irony of beaches illuminated for night-time bathing due to unbearable daytime heat highlights the dissonance between economic interests and the harsh climate realities facing the region.

The looming specter of large areas becoming uninhabitable adds a sense of urgency to a conference ostensibly aimed at preventing dangerous climate change.

COP28 at a Crossroads

As COP28 participants strive to avert their gaze from the current perilous climate conditions, scientific imperatives struggle to find a place at the discussion table.

The UN’s recent report exposes the stark gap between political pledges and actual plans, revealing a contradiction that jeopardizes the world’s ability to limit global warming to the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius target. The intentions of the world’s major fossil fuel producers, including China, the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Australia, underscore the civilization-threatening trajectory.

Exporting Emissions:

A critical, yet often overlooked, aspect of the climate crisis lies in the export of fossil fuels. The conventional scorecard, centered on domestic emissions, fails to capture the true impact of major fossil fuel exporters.

Countries like the United States, despite making strides in reducing domestic carbon emissions, are contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas levels through extensive fossil fuel exports. The looming threat of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports exacerbates the paradox, with projections indicating emissions surpassing those of entire regions.

The Leading Culprits

Oil Change International’s recent report identifies the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom as the primary culprits in the planned expansion of oil and gas production. These nations, despite vocal commitments to climate action, collectively account for over half of the projected increase in production by mid-century. The report sheds light on the disconcerting reality that these expansions are already underway, undermining global climate targets outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Petrostate Influence and Veto Powers

The COP process grapples with inherent challenges, prominently the influence of petrostates and the veto powers wielded by member states. The historical pattern reveals a recurring theme of petrostates diluting climate agreements, resulting in outcomes misaligned with scientific imperatives. As COP28 unfolds, the clash between ambitious climate goals and relentless fossil fuel pursuits underscores the need for fundamental changes in the consensus rule and limits on fossil fuel lobbying within the COP framework.

IMG 20231204 WA0028 — Miss Climate Kenya with Mahabahu in COP28, Dubai on 04-12-2023

From Wildfires to Building-Ignition Problems

Addressing climate change requires a paradigm shift in how we perceive its inevitable consequences. Researchers advocate for redefining wildfires as building-ignition problems, acknowledging the inevitability of fires and focusing on preventive measures to safeguard homes and communities. This pragmatic approach aims to move beyond futile attempts to control fires and instead mitigate risks effectively.

Climate Anxiety

The psychological toll of climate change is increasingly evident, with climate anxiety emerging as a normal and healthy response. While not classified as a mental health disorder, climate anxiety serves as a potent motivator for climate action. Urgent attention is required to understand and alleviate climate anxiety, recognizing its legitimacy as a concern that warrants consideration.

Hope on the Horizon

Amidst the challenges, former U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu offers a ray of hope, highlighting significant advances in renewable energy, batteries, electric vehicles, and emerging technologies. Drawing parallels with historical transitions, Chu envisions a future where the decline of the oil age is inevitable, signaling a positive trajectory in the fight against climate change.

COP28 emerges as a pivotal moment where the urgency of climate action collides with the vested interests of petrostates. The confrontation over fossil fuel production, export paradoxes, and the psychological toll of climate change underscores the need for transformative changes in the COP process.

As the world grapples with the consequences of political inertia, the decisions made at COP28 will shape the trajectory of humanity’s future in the face of an escalating climate crisis.

04-12-2023

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