Europe absorbs Ukrainian migrants… not losing its interest
✊ Now the EU spends a lot on supporting Ukrainian migrants, but in the future it expects to receive benefits, because Ukrainians are actively integrating into the European labor market and paying taxes. In addition, in 2022, the expenses of our citizens abroad more than tripled to $2 billion per month. This is stated in the NBU study “The impact of Ukrainian migrants on the EU economy.”
✊ According to the UN, as of November 15, there are about 4.5 million Ukrainians in Europe, mostly women with children. In Poland – 1.5 million, in Germany – more than 1 million, in the Czech Republic – 450 thousand, in Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Great Britain and France – 100 thousand each. About 70% have higher education, 65% of women are of working age.
👉 Ukrainian women are adapting in Europe and are already working in some places. They began to withdraw less money from Ukrainian cards – $990 million in March and $580 million in October.
👉 According to various estimates, Europe has spent €30-37 billion to support Ukrainian migrants. For example, Poland has invested €2.2 billion in the education of Ukrainian children and €1.5 billion in medical services. And further these expenses will decrease, and the profit will grow. Already this year, employed Ukrainians in Poland have paid about $2.4 billion in taxes.
✊ Polish economists calculated that even if only half of the current migrants remain in Europe, Ukrainians in a few years will add 1.2% per year to the annual GDP growth rates of the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia, and the GDP of Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania almost 0.8% each. At the same time, the long-term benefits from the adaptation of Ukrainian migrants will significantly exceed the current costs.
✊ The NBU also estimates that thanks to the Ukrainians, the output of goods and services in Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic in 2026 will grow by 2.2-2.3%, in Germany – by 0.6%. And this is the development of business, the growth of taxes and the budget. In Poland, a surge in retail sales was recorded in the spring. The Ukrainians compensated for the drop in consumption among the Poles. But at the same time, they added even more to European inflation and contributed to an increase in property prices.
✊ There are also enough problems with finding a job. Particularly because of the language barrier. In Germany in June, more than 350 thousand Ukrainians were registered who were looking for work, but only 10-20% found it. In France, about 15% of migrants are employed, in Spain – 13%. In Poland, 1.2 million migrants received social security numbers and about half of them found work, albeit in lower-wage sectors.
There will be no output. Everyone is able to make them himself.
[Writer Irina Mirochnik is the President at IMMER Group & Doctor of Philosophy in Law(PhD)]
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