Global Climate Leadership in a Post-U.S. Paris Agreement Era

CLIMATE ACTION

PAHARI BARUAH

US President Donald Trump’s second withdrawal of the United States from the Paris climate agreement in early 2025 has reverberated across global climate efforts, raising urgent questions about who will lead the charge to secure a sustainable future for the planet’s next generations.

As the world’s second-largest emitter steps back, emerging leaders-nations, corporations, and subnational actors-are stepping forward, leveraging the latest data and innovations to drive progress.

Their actions signal resilience in the fight against climate change, but the stakes for future generations remain high, with the IPCC warning that deep emissions cuts are critical to limit warming to 1.5°C and avert catastrophic consequences.

The Paris Agreement’s Enduring Framework

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 by nearly every nation, is built for resilience. Its nonbinding structure allows countries to set voluntary emissions targets, ensuring flexibility that has sustained it through previous U.S. exits. In 2017, when Trump first withdrew, the agreement held firm as nations like China, the EU, and Japan reaffirmed their commitments, while U.S. states, cities, and businesses filled the gap domestically. Today, this adaptability is proving vital again.

On July 24, 2025, China and the European Union issued a joint statement at their Beijing summit, marking the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. They pledged to strengthen climate targets and lead a “global just transition” amid a “fluid and turbulent international situation.”

The EU committed to cutting emissions by 77% by 2035 from 1990 levels, with detailed sectoral plans for power, transportation, construction, and agriculture, alongside increased funding for developing nations. China, despite missing its 2025 climate pledge deadline, reiterated its goals of peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2060, underpinned by massive renewable energy investments.

China’s Dominance in Clean Energy

China, responsible for 30% of global carbon emissions, is emerging as a climate superpower. A 2025 report by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) recorded a historic 1.6% drop in China’s CO2 emissions in the year to May 2025, driven by an unprecedented renewable energy boom.

In 2024, China accounted for 53% of global solar capacity growth (250 TWh, up 43% from 2023) and 58% of wind growth (106 TWh). In May 2025 alone, China installed 90 gigawatts of solar capacity—equivalent to 100 solar panels per second. Solar and wind now surpass thermal power capacity, with renewables meeting 89% of new power demand in June 2025.

China’s clean energy exports are transforming global emissions trajectories. In 2024, its exports of solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), and wind turbines-worth $177 billion-avoided 220 million tonnes of CO2 annually across 191 countries, with cumulative savings projected at 4 billion tonnes over their lifetimes. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region saw emissions reductions of 3% and 4.5%, respectively.

Chinese investments through the Belt and Road Initiative, including solar projects in Egypt and wind farms in Ethiopia, further amplify its influence. In 2024, China’s clean-tech manufacturing emissions (110 MtCO2) were offset in less than a year by global savings, highlighting the net positive impact.

Despite this progress, China’s coal reliance persists, with new coal plants approved in 2022–2023 coming online. However, coal imports dropped 25% year-on-year in June 2025, and coal generation growth slowed to 1.9% in 2024 from 6.3% in 2023.

“China’s emissions may have peaked,” said Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute, noting that economic self-interest-cleaner cities, lower costs, and global market dominance-drives this shift. For future generations, China’s trajectory offers hope but underscores the need for accelerated coal phase-downs by 2030, as pledged by President Xi Jinping.

India’s Balancing Act

India, the third-largest power sector emitter, is navigating economic growth and sustainability. In 2024, its electricity demand grew by 5% (98 TWh), with clean generation-solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear-meeting 33% of the increase. Solar generation surged by 20 TWh (18%), driven by record capacity additions, while coal generation growth slowed to 4.3% from 8.8% in 2023. India overtook Germany in 2024 to become the world’s third-largest wind and solar generator, with these sources reaching 10% of its electricity mix.

India’s carbon intensity (708 gCO2/kWh) exceeds global (473 gCO2/kWh) and Asian (573 gCO2/kWh) averages, and coal still powers 75% of its electricity. Yet, per capita emissions remain low at 1 tonne of CO2, compared to the global 1.8 tonnes, reflecting low per capita electricity use (1.4 MWh vs. 3.8 MWh globally).

India’s goal to triple renewable capacity to 500 GW by 2030, with 200 GW achieved by October 2024, positions it as a leader in clean energy manufacturing, focusing on solar modules, batteries, and electrolysers. For future generations, India’s progress ensures broader energy access but requires faster decarbonization to align with global climate goals.

U.S. Corporate Leadership Amid Federal Retreat

The U.S. withdrawal could add 1.8 gigatonnes of CO2 to its 2030 emissions, jeopardizing its Paris target of a 26-28% reduction from 2005 levels by 2025. Trump’s rollback of the Clean Power Plan, vehicle efficiency standards, and methane regulations threatens to flatline emissions reductions, with the power sector alone projected to emit 202 million metric tons more CO2 in 2025 without the Clean Power Plan. However, market forces-coal plant retirements and renewable growth-have cut U.S. emissions by 17.2% from 2005 levels, though this falls short of the 26-28% goal.

American businesses are stepping up where federal policy falters. The 2025 America’s Climate Leaders list, a USA TODAY and Statista collaboration, grew to 500 companies, up from 450 in 2024 and 400 in 2023. These firms reduced carbon intensity (emissions per dollar of revenue) by at least 3% year-on-year. Dayforce, a Minnesota-based HR software company, led for the second year, cutting emissions from 8,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalents in 2021 to under 300 in 2023 by adopting 100% renewable energy. Zillow Group and Aramark followed, reflecting a trend of 900 companies reporting emissions data in 2025, a 25% increase from 750 in 2024.

“Economic pressures drive emissions reductions,” said Michael Vandenbergh of Vanderbilt University. A 2025 Kearney survey found 60% of CFOs plan to invest at least 2% of revenue in sustainability, citing cost savings, efficiency, and market demands. However, “green hushing” has emerged, with companies quietly pursuing climate goals to avoid backlash from the Trump administration. For future generations, U.S. corporate action offers a lifeline, but federal policy reversals risk long-term setbacks, especially if global cooperation weakens.

Subnational and Global Resilience

U.S. states and cities remain defiant. California’s rigorous climate regulations and the United States Climate Alliance, a coalition of states and cities, continue to push for reductions. Legal challenges may delay Trump’s rollbacks, and economic trends-natural gas and renewables outpacing coal-support emissions declines. Globally, the EU’s ambitious 2035 targets and the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, including China, India, Bolivia, and Venezuela, are pressing for stronger commitments from developed nations.

The upcoming COP30 in Brazil will be a pivotal moment. The Paris Agreement’s design ensures its survival, but stabilizing emissions is not enough. The IPCC emphasizes that global emissions must plummet to avoid irreversible impacts-rising sea levels, extreme weather, and ecosystem collapse-that would burden future generations. China and the EU’s leadership, India’s renewable push, and U.S. corporate efforts demonstrate progress, but the gap left by the U.S. risks slowing global momentum.

A Future at Stake

For the children of 2050, the actions taken today are critical. China’s clean energy dominance, exporting technologies that shave 1.5% off global emissions annually, offers a model for scalable impact. India’s renewable ambitions ensure energy access while curbing emissions growth.

U.S. businesses, despite federal headwinds, prove that economic and environmental goals can align. Yet, the window to limit warming to 1.5°C is narrowing. COP30 will reveal whether these leaders can balance economic growth with the urgent decarbonization needed to secure a livable planet for future generations.

Mahabahu.com is an Online Magazine with collection of premium Assamese and English articles and posts with cultural base and modern thinking.  You can send your articles to editor@mahabahu.com / editor@mahabahoo.com (For Assamese article, Unicode font is necessary) Images from different sources.