How is this Middle-East War 2026 different?

H. Srikanth

Since the first Arab-Israeli War of 1948, the Gulf and the Middle-East regions have witnessed several wars involving Israel, the US, Western powers, Iran, and different Arab countries in the region. Factors that compelled the wars are varied. The wars were fought and justified in the name of the liberation of Palestine, control of oil resources, destruction of weapons of mass destruction, or for the restoration of democracy.

The US and Israel, which seek political hegemony and economic control in the region, were involved in almost all wars that took place in the region. Over the decades, different Arab and Gulf countries became allies of America and gave up confrontation with Israel. America and its allies engineered regime change in countries like Iraq, Libya, and Syria, where the leaders defied US hegemony. Iran is the only remaining power in the region which could resist the efforts to subvert the regime in power till date.

Iran, a Persian, Shia-majoritarian country, remains a hard nut to crack. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which toppled the Shah of Iran and established an Islamic Republic, Iran has emerged as an economic and military power in the region. It withstood all kinds of international pressure and refused to bow down to US interests.

While most Arab countries virtually gave up the cause of Palestine in return for security and development, Iran openly supported the Palestine cause and started lending support to Islamic militant groups in the region fighting Israel. Iran strengthened its military and economy with the help of Russia and China. Iran has made considerable progress in nuclear research, much against the wishes of America and its allies. It is therefore natural that the US and Israel view Iran as their greatest enemy in the region. Both the US and Israel have been making efforts to destabilize Iran. The US and Western powers have imposed economic sanctions on Iran. Apart from encouraging dissent within Iran, they have been pitting the Kurds against Iran.

Despite its allegiance to Islam, Iran is not like a backward Afghanistan ruled by the Taliban. Iran is no doubt a theocratic and authoritarian state where civil rights are considerably restricted. In recent years, Iran has witnessed social movements challenging patriarchy and theocracy. But Iran’s foresighted leaders have shaped Iran as a centralized nation-state which is not averse to modern education, science, and economic progress.

In recent years, the Iranians have made considerable progress in sports and have made a mark in the film industry. Iran is not as conservative as it was during the period of its first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini (1979-89). After him, there has been a gradual change in the perception of leadership.

Some sections in Iran feel the change has been too little and too slow. The people of Iran have every right to decide what reforms they need and who should rule in Iran. But it becomes problematic when outside powers whose humanitarian and democratic credentials are in doubt intervene in the politics of Iran and advocating regime change, killing its leaders and trying to create a puppet government in Iran to eliminate dissent and ensure control over the oil resources in the country. 

When Israel and the US bombarded Iran and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders of Iran on February 28, Donald Trump triumphantly declared that the war would end in four days. But that did not happen. It has been more than one week now. The war is still on. No regime change has taken place yet. After the bombing of a school building which killed over 160 innocent children, the Iranian people came out in lakhs mourning the deaths and denouncing the US-Israel attacks. Those who wanted regime change went into hiding. The second-rung leadership consolidated and swung into action to take revenge and fight an asymmetric war against the more powerful enemy. 

The war strategies that Iran has been adopting have surprised many military experts. Iran’s air force and navy are no match for Israel and America’s military power. Hence, Iran relied heavily on home-made missiles and drone which it produced in abundance. Instead of focusing only on Israel and the US, it dragged the Gulf into the war by attacking American military bases and US economic establishments in the GCC countries. Using cluster bombs, Iran destroyed the radar systems and expensive receptors in Israel and the Gulf countries.

By attacking oil refineries and commercial establishments, Iran caused heavy financial losses to the Gulf countries and also to America. Iran could create panic among the Gulf states about the ability to provide security to the region. Restrictions on the movement of the vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, have already increased the oil prices. As business is affected, the stock markets are plummeting. Through bombing, Iran showed its capacity to influence air traffic between Gulf countries and the rest of the world.

By attacking different cities in Israel, Iran forced the Jews in Iran to take shelter in bomb shelters, underground parking areas, subway stations, etc. Israel could not fly its aircraft since the beginning of the war. The US expressed its inability to pull out all its citizens holed up in Israel and other Gulf countries. As such, the initial plans that Trump and Netanyahu had have gone awry, and there is panic and confusion in the Western world.

These developments are not adequate to conclude that Iran is winning the war. Through the conventional superiority, the US and Israel have destroyed many key areas in Iran and killed thousands of people. But all this destruction did not appear to have deterred the leaders and the people of Iran. Taking advantage of geography and its decentralized military establishment system, Iran is fighting a valiant battle for survival. In some respects, the Iranian resistance reminds us of the glorious Vietnamese resistance war in the 1960s.

The only difference is that there are no strong socialist countries to stand by. After one week of war, the US has realized that airstrikes alone will not ensure regime change. Trump’s regime is planning to deploy American soldiers on the ground to fight war in Iran. It means the war will continue for a longer period. Who blinks first is not yet clear. But in the end, there will be no clear victors. The effects of this war will not be confined only to the actors involved in the war. The war will worsen the global recession and affect all the countries in the world, preparing the ground for more crises and wars. ( 09-03-2026)

Prof. H. Srikanth, Department of Political Science, North-Eastern Hill University , hskant@gmail.com

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