How much CO2 does the Military emit and why don’t we know?

How much CO2 does the Military emit and why don’t we know?

KAKALI DAS

We calculate how much climate impact many things have – like avocados, jeans, or airplanes. But it is almost impossible to find out how much pollution the military causes.

The military is huge. It has a budget of $2.2 trillion and uses many machines like helicopters, tanks, ships, and fighter jets. But none of these emissions are required to be reported.

How can such a big sector stay hidden when it comes to pollution? And what can we do to change this?

Before we go further, a quick note: talking about greenhouse gases from war and the military may sound strange. War causes terrible damage – people die, forests burn, and cities are destroyed. This is terrible beyond words. But here, we want to focus only on how much greenhouse gas the military produces.

The military’s carbon footprint is a big blind spot. One reason is that there is very little data available.

Governments send data to the United Nations about their military emissions. The five countries with the biggest military budgets all have very poor or poor reporting.

India, which has the second-largest military by troop numbers, does not report any emissions data at all. You can’t manage something if you don’t even know how much it is.

“We have very limited knowledge at the moment. We have been trying to map and estimate this because military emissions sit outside the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are many gaps, and governments need to recognize how important this is,” says Linsey Cottrell, Environmental Policy Officer at the Conflict and Environment Observatory.

This problem started a long time ago, with the Kyoto Protocol, a climate agreement from 1997. Back then, after strong lobbying by the United States, the military was exempted from reporting their emissions.

Then, in 2015, the Paris Agreement left it to each country to decide how and where to cut emissions. Reporting military emissions was again not made mandatory.

That is why today, we have almost no idea how much the world’s armies emit. But we do know the problem is getting worse.

Military spending grew by 3.7% on average in 2022. In Eastern Europe, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it grew by 58%.

In Europe, part of this spending goes to updating fighter jets. Some countries are replacing their old F-16 jets (which were sent to Ukraine) with new F-35s.

Right now, Europe has about 120 F-35 jets flying. Lockheed Martin, the company that makes them, expects there to be 600 by 2030. The US plans to buy around 2,500 new F-35 jets.

This kind of long-term buying is called “lock-in.” The F-35 jets bought today will still be flying and burning fuel until 2070.

A study in the journal Nature said that for every 100 nautical miles flown, an F-35 emits about 185 kilograms of CO2. One F-35 jet produces as much CO2 as an average car in the UK does in a whole year.

So, what do military leaders say about this? Most see climate change mainly as a security risk. Only a few, like NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg, openly admit their own emissions are part of the problem.

“We need to make sure our armed forces also reduce emissions. We can’t reach net zero unless the military cuts its emissions too,” Stoltenberg said.

But it is hard to know how much reduction is needed when nobody knows how much the military emits in the first place.

This is why scientists started to calculate the numbers.

“We estimate the military causes between 3.3% and 7% of global emissions, with the best estimate being 5.5%,” says Stuart Parkinson, Executive Director of Scientists for Global Responsibility. He co-wrote a study calculating the military’s global carbon footprint.

He added, “The number of military personnel is a key factor. Also, spending, military activity, and the number of big machines like tanks and planes matter. But a lot of data is hard to find, so we had to piece together what we could.”

Most countries don’t publish data on their military’s greenhouse gas emissions. They say it would risk their national security. But these same countries like to talk openly about how big their military is — how many troops they have, what planes they own, and so on.

“What we do know about India, Russia, and China is a good estimate of the size of their military in terms of personnel. We use data from Western countries to link the number of personnel to emissions. Then we apply those ratios, adjusting for how many planes and tanks they have. It is based on assumptions but gives an idea,” Parkinson said.

The US Armed Forces spend 39% of all military money spent worldwide. This huge amount causes a huge amount of emissions. The Pentagon is the biggest single greenhouse gas emitter in the world. It produces more greenhouse gases than entire countries like Sweden or Finland.

And remember, this only counts emissions from building and running the military. If the military goes to war, emissions rise dramatically.

Looking at US military greenhouse gas emissions from 1975 to 2018 shows spikes. In 1991, emissions spiked during the Gulf War. Then emissions dropped as the Cold War ended and US bases abroad closed. Then emissions rose again after 2001 following 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The war in Ukraine made measuring the environmental impact of war more detailed because it is the “big data era.” We can watch the battlefield from satellites. The Ukrainian government published data on the environmental impact of military actions, including destroyed equipment and emission costs.

A study called “Climate Damage Caused By Russia’s War in Ukraine,” funded by Ukrainian and European NGOs, estimated that in the first 18 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, 150 million metric tonnes of CO2 were emitted. This is the same amount Belgium emitted during that time.

Lennard De Klerk, lead author of this study and climate scientist, said, “War produces a lot of emissions from fossil fuels used by tanks and jets, but also logistics – moving ammo, rotating soldiers, supplying food. I thought those would be the biggest sources, but they are not.”

The largest source of emissions comes from rebuilding Ukraine, which accounts for 36% of emissions. Warfare accounts for 25%, fires for 15%, and flights rerouted because of the war add another large part.

Fires burn large areas because firefighters often cannot reach the territory. Diverted civilian flights added 18 million tonnes of CO2 in the first year and a half of the conflict.

War also needs fuel to keep armies running. The Russian army has used more fuel than the Ukrainians during the war.

Another study measured the war in Gaza. It found that in the first 60 days, fighting produced over 281,000 metric tonnes of CO2 – the same as 62,500 gasoline cars in a year. This number does not include emissions from rebuilding Gaza in the future.

Most of these emissions came from Israeli bombardment and invasion. This shows how war worsens climate change.

So where does this leave us? The military is a major cause of climate change, and war makes it much worse. What can we do?

“There is a tension between maintaining military power and reducing emissions. Politicians must decide the right balance. But you can only make a fair decision if you have the numbers,” says Lennard De Klerk

There have been small steps forward. The UN recognizes the problem and is pushing for more transparency in military emissions.

Some countries, like the UK, Norway, and Germany, are reporting their military emissions more openly. NATO encourages its members to address this issue. NATO released a methodology providing guidelines and tools to help calculate military greenhouse gas emissions.

Experts say these guidelines have problems or flaws, but could encourage other militaries to follow.

Also, a study found that defence industry manufacturers are starting to change. They are setting net zero targets and reporting their emissions. This could pressure militaries to reduce their emissions as well.

But reporting emissions is not enough. The military must be willing to reduce them.

Mahabahu.com is an Online Magazine with collection of premium Assamese and English articles and posts with cultural base and modern thinking.  You can send your articles to editor@mahabahu.com / editor@mahabahoo.com(For Assamese article, Unicode font is necessary) Images from different sources.