Is India’s Indus Water Treaty Suspension a Diplomatic Death Blow to Pakistan?
KASHMIR / Indus Water Treaty
Is India’s Indus Water Treaty Suspension a Diplomatic Death Blow to Pakistan?
KAKALI DAS
Following the horrific terror attack in Kashmir that resulted in the loss of 26 precious lives, India has made a series of bold decisions aimed at retaliating against Pakistan’s actions.
Among the most significant moves are the closure of the land border, the cancellation of Pakistani visas, suspension of the SAARC visa exemption scheme, reduction of diplomatic staff, and the expulsion of Pakistani military advisers from the Indian High Commission.
However, the most consequential decision taken by the Indian government has been the indefinite suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a move that marks the first such suspension since the treaty was signed in 1960.
The Indus Water Treaty, which has long been regarded as one of the few successful and enduring agreements between India and Pakistan, was the result of nearly a decade of negotiations between the two countries. Despite multiple wars — in 1965, 1971, and 1999 — and the ongoing cycle of terror attacks emanating from Pakistan, the treaty has managed to withstand the test of time.
Now, however, India has suspended it in response to Pakistan’s continued support of cross-border terrorism, sending a strong message about its growing frustration with Pakistan’s actions.
The Indus River and its five left-bank tributaries — the Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum, and Chenab — have long been a focal point of tension between the two nations. At the time of Partition in 1947, the newly drawn borders divided the Indus Basin, with India situated upstream and Pakistan downstream.
The 1960 treaty ensured that Pakistan had control over the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India retained rights over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. This division was intended to ensure the fair distribution of water from these crucial rivers that both countries rely on for agriculture, irrigation, and power generation.
The first major point of contention between India and Pakistan over these rivers arose from the construction of major irrigation projects in Indian territory, such as the Madhopur Dam on the Ravi and the Ferozepur Headworks on the Sutlej. These irrigation systems were essential for Pakistan’s water supply, but since they lay within Indian territory, Pakistan raised concerns about their access to water.
These concerns led to negotiations under the World Bank’s mediation, which culminated in the signing of the Indus Water Treaty. The treaty, though, has always been under pressure from political tensions and military confrontations between the two nations.
The water-sharing agreement allowed India to utilize the waters of the Eastern Rivers — the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — for irrigation and power generation purposes, while Pakistan retained control over the Western Rivers — the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. The treaty was seen as a remarkable achievement in diplomacy, offering a framework for cooperation between two countries that had engaged in three wars and numerous skirmishes.
Even after the 2019 Pulwama terror attack, which led to a similar debate on whether India should suspend the treaty, the government refrained from such drastic measures. However, the recent attack in Kashmir has prompted India to act decisively. It seems likethe Prime Minister’s warning of 2016 – “blood and water cannot flow together” has come true now.
India’s suspension of the treaty has several far-reaching consequences for both countries. On the ground, it is expected that India will halt the regulated release of water from various hydroelectric projects along the Western Rivers. One such project is the Kishanganga on the Jhelum, operational since 2018, which diverts water from key tributaries.
Moreover, the Ratle Hydro Electric Project on the Chenab River is currently under construction, and it may further reduce Pakistan’s access to water from the river. Other significant projects like the Shahpurkandi Dam on the Ravi, which diverts water to Indian channels, are expected to aggravate the water shortage for Pakistan.
The suspension of the treaty also has significant implications for Pakistan’s water supply. Water scarcity has been a growing concern in Pakistan for several years due to a combination of factors including rapid population growth, poor water management, and the impacts of climate change.
Pakistan already faces an acute water shortage, and the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty will only aggravate the crisis. The country’s agricultural sector, which relies heavily on irrigation from the Indus Basin, will be particularly hard-hit.
Major crops such as wheat, rice, and cotton, which are essential for Pakistan’s food security and GDP, depend on water from these rivers. With agriculture contributing 23% to Pakistan’s national income and employing a large portion of the population, any disruption in water supply could lead to severe economic consequences.
If India proceeds with its plans to halt regulated water releases, it could reduce the annual flow of water to Pakistan by approximately 9.3 billion cubic meters, according to a report in Business Today. The disruption would not only impact Pakistan’s agriculture but also its power generation capacity, as hydroelectric projects rely on water from the Indus system.
The economic fallout would likely be widespread, leading to reduced agricultural yields, rural unemployment, and even urban migration as people seek opportunities elsewhere. Pakistan’s exports, especially in textiles and basmati rice, would also take a hit, further straining the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
In addition to these immediate effects, Pakistan’s groundwater reserves would deplete as cities and towns across the country depend on these waters for drinking. The scarcity of water would therefore not only impact agriculture and industry but could also lead to a humanitarian crisis in the form of food shortages and a potential rise in social unrest.
Under the terms of the Indus Water Treaty, both India and Pakistan are allowed to develop infrastructure on the rivers, such as dams and hydroelectric projects, but with strict limitations to ensure that neither country impedes the natural flow of water to the other. India has built several run-of-the-river dams that do not block the flow of water but divert it for electricity generation, including the Uri Dam and the Kishanganga Hydro Electric Project.
With the suspension of the treaty, India may now modify the designs of these projects to increase water storage and further control the flow of water to Pakistan. Additionally, India could expedite the development of infrastructure to maximize its share of the Eastern Rivers, which will further reduce the flow of surplus water to Pakistan.
One of the most significant implications of the suspension is that India may now cease sharing flood data with Pakistan, a practice that was part of the original treaty. This could further complicate flood control efforts in Pakistan, which already faces the threat of devastating floods due to the monsoon season. Moreover, Pakistan’s officials may no longer have access to inspect Indian hydroelectric facilities, which was previously allowed under the treaty.
Pakistan, in turn, has limited options in responding to India’s decision. While it could approach international forums such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, India contests the jurisdiction of these bodies over this matter.
Pakistan could also pursue diplomatic channels, seeking support from allies like China or the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), but given its economic instability, the country may be unable to retaliate effectively. Diplomatic or military action against India would likely be difficult given Pakistan’s current internal challenges.
The treaty’s suspension raises the question of whether India can fully walk away from the agreement. While the treaty does not have an explicit provision allowing for unilateral withdrawal, India could argue that the circumstances have changed fundamentally due to Pakistan’s support of cross-border terrorism.
Pradeep Kumar Saxena, a former Indus Water Commissioner, suggests that India could invoke the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows for the suspension or termination of a treaty in cases of fundamental changes. Although India is not a signatory to the Vienna Convention, it has used it as a reference in past cases.
The Implications of the suspension are clear: India is sending a strong message to Pakistan that its support for terrorism will have severe consequences. The decision also serves as a signal to the international community that India will no longer tolerate Pakistan’s actions and will take whatever steps are necessary to safeguard its interests.
The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty will not only disrupt Pakistan’s agriculture and economy but could also lead to widespread social unrest, particularly in rural areas.
India’s decision marks a new chapter in the strained relations between the two countries. It reflects India’s growing frustration with Pakistan’s behaviour and the need for a stronger response to its use of terrorism as a tool of state policy.
The future of the Indus Water Treaty remains uncertain, but the message from New Delhi is clear: Pakistan must change its ways if it hopes to maintain any semblance of cooperation between the two nations.
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