India’s Jobless Juggernaut: A Nation of Promises, a State of Despair!

India‘s Jobless Juggernaut: A Nation of Promises, a State of Despair!

SPECIAL MENTION: ASSAM

PAHARI BARUAH

In the world’s most populous nation, home to over 1.4 billion souls, the promise of a “Viksit Bharat” rings hollow against the deafening silence of empty job queues and shattered dreams.

As of September 2025, India’s official unemployment rate has dipped to a purported 5.1% in August, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), a figure touted by the Modi administration as evidence of economic recovery.

Yet, this statistic, peddled with fanfare, is dismissed by a chorus of independent economists as a mirage-over 70% of 50 polled by Reuters in July 2025 labeled it “inaccurate,” estimating the true rate at double digits, masking rampant underemployment and a youth bulge teetering on the edge of despair.

In Assam, this national farce plays out in stark relief, where the rate hovers at 6.5% officially but climbs to 10.4% per independent trackers like CMIE, fueling protests, migration, and a growing indictment of government policies that prioritize spectacle over substance.

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The Modi era, now in its third term, was built on grandiloquent vows: two crore jobs annually, doubled farmer incomes, and a manufacturing renaissance under “Make in India.”

A decade later, these pledges stand exposed as electoral smoke and mirrors. Youth unemployment, at 17.8% nationally and soaring higher in states like Assam, has eclipsed global averages, with 83% of the jobless holding secondary education or above-a damning testament to a skills mismatch engineered by neglectful policies.

The International Labour Organization’s scathing assessment rings true: India has squandered its demographic dividend, with growth sputtering at 5.8% annually from 2014-2024, far below the 8% needed to absorb 10-12 million workforce entrants yearly. Instead of job creation, we’ve witnessed a parade of disruptions-demonetization in 2016 that gutted informal sectors, GST’s chaotic rollout in 2017 that idled millions in MSMEs, and a COVID-19 response that prioritized lockdowns over livelihoods, spiking unemployment to 23% in 2020. Manufacturing’s share of GDP, stagnant since 1960, plummeted from 17% in 2014 to 13% by 2022, reversing the Lewisian transition and trapping workers in low-productivity agriculture.

Critics, including retired JNU economist Arun Kumar, lambast the government for sidelining employment-generating sectors like labor-intensive manufacturing and agriculture, opting instead for capital-heavy tech and services that benefit the elite. The Budget 2025, hailed as a job-creation blueprint, is derided as rhetoric over action, with schemes like the Employment Linked Incentive offering incentives but no enforcement, while inflationary pressures erode wages and trigger layoffs in export-dependent industries.

The PLFS data itself is under fire: its methodology, sampling 89,372 households monthly, is accused of undercounting “discouraged workers”-those who abandon job hunts amid futility-leading to artificially low rates. In a nation where 28 million educated youth scramble for jobs and 100 million (mostly women) have quit looking, the government’s rebuttals-citing global benchmarks-smack of deflection rather than accountability.

This fiscal folly extends to the states, with Assam emerging as a prime example of profligacy amid penury. Plagued by stagnant revenue generation-reliant on volatile tea exports, oil royalties, and central transfers that cover only 60% of expenditures-the Assam government has ballooned its debt under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s regime, swelling to ₹61,191 crore as of August 2025, per RBI data. By July 2025, estimates peg the total at a staggering ₹1,84,463 crore, driven by a fiscal deficit ballooning to 5.7% of GSDP in 2024-25 (revised) against a targeted 3.7% for 2025-26.

To bridge this chasm, the state has turned to heavy borrowings from the Reserve Bank of India via its market borrowing window and other financial institutions, with states collectively slated to raise ₹2.86 lakh crore in the July-September 2025 quarter alone. Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia has urged the Gauhati High Court to intervene in this “escalating debt crisis,” warning of a vicious cycle where loans fund short-term populism rather than sustainable growth.

Yet, instead of channeling these funds into job-creating infrastructure or skill programs, the administration has diverted resources to cultural extravaganzas and vote-bank schemes that smack of electoral maneuvering. In 2025, Assam splurged on hosting the world’s largest Jhumur dance festival in February, involving 8,000 tea tribe artists, with each participant receiving ₹25,000 and every tea garden allotted another ₹25,000 for “Jhumoir-based” initiatives-costs borne by the state exchequer amid fanfare attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

This followed a similar outlay for a world-record Bihu dance and plans for the largest Bodo traditional performance in June, all timed ahead of investment summits like Advantage Assam 2.0. Critics decry these as “dance records over development,” siphoning loan money from pressing needs while unemployment climbs.

Compounding this, populist handouts like the Lakhpati Baideu scheme-aiming to empower 35 lakh women to earn ₹1 lakh annually through SHGs-and Orunodoi 3.0, expanded to 37.2 lakh beneficiaries in FY 2025-26 with monthly stipends, are portrayed as empowerment tools but widely viewed as election bribes.

Orunodoi, in particular, has been ramped up ahead of polls, distributing cash directly to women voters without addressing root causes like skill gaps or industrial voids. These schemes, funded partly through borrowings, offer temporary relief but exacerbate fiscal strain, with debt servicing now consuming 15% of the budget-leaving scant room for unemployment alleviation. As revenue generation falters-tax collections up only 8% YoY against 12% inflation- the cycle perpetuates: borrow more, spend on spectacles, watch jobs evaporate.

Assam exemplifies this betrayal on a regional scale. Despite Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s boasts of the state’s fastest GSDP growth-projected at 113%-and poverty slashed to 3.8%, the reality is a sevenfold spike in educated unemployment in one year, per the Economic Survey. The obsession with “sarkari jobs” persists, as private sector growth lags due to infrastructural woes: broken roads, erratic power, and annual floods that displace thousands and exacerbate seasonal joblessness.

Illegal immigration from Bangladesh intensifies competition, altering demographics and sparking communal tensions, while agriculture’s declining viability pushes youth to migrate for menial work abroad. Sarma’s initiatives-the Assam Kalpataru Scheme for startup stipends, Swa-Niyojan Yojana for training-sound progressive but falter in execution, with low uptake and persistent employability crises. Mysteriously vanishing jobless figures-from 35.73 lakh in June 2025 to 21.18 lakh in July-raise eyebrows, suggesting statistical sleight-of-hand rather than genuine progress.

The human cost is visceral. Nationally, an aging workforce (over-45s now 49%) and declining youth participation signal a generation lost, with mental health crises surging amid eroded self-esteem.

In Assam, protests erupt: 20,000 Moran community members blockaded roads demanding ST status, while opposition marks Modi’s birthday as “National Unemployment Day,” decrying unfulfilled vows.

On X, voices amplify the outrage: users lambast Modi’s “fake promises” on jobs, farmers’ incomes, and anti-corruption, linking them to poverty, inequality, and communal violence. One post equates voting for Modi to endorsing “poverty, unemployment, inequality,” while another mocks the regime’s silence on crises like Manipur amid tax hikes and job losses.

As India hurtles toward 2047, the government’s policies-prioritizing optics like UCC or temple reclamations over structural reforms-risk turning the demographic dividend into a demographic disaster.

In Assam and beyond, the call is clear: enough with fake commitments. The world’s largest population demands real jobs, not rehearsed rhetoric. Without a policy overhaul-fostering manufacturing, addressing regional disparities, and transparent data-the juggernaut of joblessness will crush aspirations, leaving a legacy of lost potential.

16-09-2025

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