Managing Climate Vulnerability in the Eastern Himalaya and Third Pole

Managing Climate Vulnerability in the Eastern Himalaya and Third Pole

Ranjit Barthakur

The Himalayan Region with its abundant natural resources and diverse ecosystems houses the Third Pole, a complex network of mountain glaciers and snowfields  storing frozen water at a volume second to only the Arctic and Antarctic polar caps.

But looming climate threats and events like rising temperatures and glacial melting has made the region severely susceptible to the climate crisis, with far-reaching consequences for both the environment and local communities.

Research has predicted that the region will experience major changes by 2050 and beyond — unless urgent climate action is taken at a global and local level to change the trajectory.

Current emissions and temperature trends present a concerning outlook for the region. Several studies have suggested that the Himalayan region is warming faster than the global average and if current emission trends continue, the region could see temperature increases of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, with potential rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100.

This warming will not only accelerate glacial melt but in turn will also affect water security for over a billion people who rely on river systems fed by these glaciers^[1].

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Despite all the efforts to bring down global emissions, the region may still continue to face the impacts of global warming. The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment on climate change in the Himalayas by ICIMOD, has suggested that even if temperature is arrested within the 1.5 °C target, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region will likely continue to warm by at least 0.3 °C higher, and in the northwest Himalaya and Karakoram at least 0.7 °C higher^[2].

These trends are concerning as they could trigger a wide range of negative biophysical and socio-economic events including increasing glacial melting, biodiversity loss, and unpredictable water supplies impacting life in the region.

Effects on Ecosystems and Communities

This region, the Third Pole, is often referred to as the ‘Water Tower of Asia,’ and supplies vital water resources to billions across Asia. However, the accelerated melting and retreat of glaciers, combined with shifting precipitation patterns, are jeopardizing water security and disrupting ecosystems.

The reduction in glacial meltwater during dry seasons will exacerbate water scarcity, affecting both agriculture and drinking water supplies. Erratic monsoons, now continuing over a longer period with intense showers, are already causing floods and exacerbating soil erosion in hill states.

The region’s unique biodiversity, including many endemic species, is also at risk due to changing climates and habitat loss. In turn, the loss of biodiversity is further accelerating the loss of ecosystems services such as soil nutrient cycling. Desertification now affects over 12% of the land area in India’s Eastern Himalaya. The risks are even more pronounced on nature-dependent climate-sensitive activities like agriculture, livestock rearing, and tourism.

In a highly rural economy like that of this region,  A varying and unpredictable climate threatens livelihoods, food security, and public health, particularly among marginalized groups who lack the resources to adapt.

In October 2023, Sikkim witnessed a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) which wreaked havoc along the Teesta river, bringing into focus the magnifying risk of climate change-induced GLOF across the Indian Himalayan Region. Such climate induced hazards are often cascading in nature thus making their prediction really difficult. 

As the impacts of climate change intensify in the Himalayan region, it is therefore imperative to adopt comprehensive and coordinated policy measures informing both adaptation and mitigation efforts. Not acting promptly on these challenges could lead to irreversible damage to both the environment and the communities that depend on it.

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Strategies to reduce the region’s climate vulnerabilities

From a mitigation lens, reducing the demand for fossil fuels and rapidly transitioning to renewable energy sources globally can help slow down global warming and its effects on the Himalayas. Leveraging hydropower, solar, and wind, alongside promoting energy-efficient technologies such as end to end electrification of grids and better building insulation, can significantly lower emissions.

Promoting electrified public transportation, coupled with policy measures like subsidies for clean energy, can accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels. These combined efforts could help reduce the region’s carbon footprint while building resilience against climate impacts.

In the region, at the ground level, concerted efforts are also needed towards monitoring and forecasting of extreme events which could be done through increased budgetary provisions for better monitoring, forecasting and stronger early warning systems for floods, landslides and glacial lake bursts.

More policies and schemes are needed to provide insurance and effective remuneration to communities in high climate-risk areas for the rising, recurrent costs of extreme weather events. Better planning is needed to map climate-risk prone zones and areas and plan for appropriate development and infrastructure installation.

On the adaptation front, promoting sustainable agricultural and land-use practices in the Himalayan region can help protect the environment and secure the livelihoods of local communities. Nature-based solutions linked to the conservation of forests and wetlands can go a long way in building natural climate resilience to floods, droughts and desertification. Additionally, improving watershed management can help mitigate water security issues.

Government can develop and implement strategies promoting climate resilient infrastructure by modifying building by-laws, mandating environmental impact assessments etc. It is also important to acknowledge the necessity of climate finance to aid the mitigation and adaptation efforts in the region.

In addition to policy measures, on-the-ground actions are necessary to mitigate ongoing climate impacts starting with community-based disaster risk management programs aimed at enhancing their capacities and response to climate risks. Raising awareness about climate change and its impacts can strengthen community resilience. Educational programs should promote sustainable practices and encourage local populations to reduce their carbon footprint and enhance their adaptive capacity.

Pursuing a comprehensive strategy for the Third Pole

The Third Pole and the wider Eastern Himalayan region are facing escalating threats from climate change, with projections indicating profound impacts on both ecosystems and local communities by mid-century and beyond. To mitigate these challenges and prevent irreversible damage, it is crucial to adopt a comprehensive strategy that combines strong policy measures with immediate, on-the-ground actions.

By focusing on sustainability and resilience, stakeholders—including governments, communities, and international partners—can work together to protect this vital region. Ensuring the long-term well-being of its ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them requires urgent and coordinated efforts to address the mounting risks posed by climate change.

^[1] ENVIS Bulletin Himalayan Ecology, Vol. 31. (2023). EIACP Centre on Himalayan Ecology, G.B. Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment.

^[2] Krishnan, R. et al. (2019). Unravelling Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Rapid Warming in the Mountains and Increasing Extremes. In: Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A., Shrestha, A. (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment.

Ranjit Barthakur, Founder Forester, Balipara Foundation

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