Overpopulation vs. Overconsumption: Which has Bigger Environmental Impact?

KAKALI DAS

In the time it takes to read this, nearly 1,200 more people will join our global population, consuming the same oxygen, sharing limited space, and contributing to the increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

We need to tackle the population aspect of the equation much more aggressively. If we continue to ignore the challenges posed by exponential population growth, nature may take its own course to reduce human numbers, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are many misconceptions surrounding population growth, and it is not understood as comprehensively as it should be.

How many is truly too many? And what connection does the answer have with frozen food?

Overpopulation vs. Overconsumption: Which has Bigger Environmental Impact? — Image: Powershift

Let’s begin at the very start, when having more people meant security in an uncertain world. On the Indian subcontinent, for instance, Chanakya, the philosopher, encouraged widows to remarry quickly. During the Mughal era, population growth was celebrated as it translated to more hands working on farms, producing more food to sustain the community.

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The Roman emperors were no exception. In some instances, they enacted laws to encourage early marriage and frequent childbirth to maintain the strength of their armies. Life revolved around having children and establishing new colonies until the growing population began to pose visible challenges.

In the 18^th century, British economist Thomas Malthus sounded the alarm on population growth. In more recent times, these fears intensified with the publication of The Population Bomb, in which its author, an American biologist, warned the Western world about the dire conditions he had witnessed in New Delhi.

Overpopulation quickly became the scapegoat for issues ranging from poverty and inefficient resource management to environmental degradation.

Some countries began implementing morally and politically controversial methods of population control. China became infamous for its ‘one-child policy,’ which led to a severe gender imbalance. Like other control measures in Asia, it was eventually repealed due to its far-reaching consequences.

Overpopulation was identified as the enemy. But what exactly is overpopulation? It is defined by the concept of carrying capacity—a somewhat complex idea that essentially refers to the number of individuals an ecosystem’s resources, such as food, water, and space, can support indefinitely.

But demographers have consistently been wrong. “Early calculations suggested that the Earth’s carrying capacity was only 4 billion. However, today we are able to feed more than 7 billion people because we’ve supplemented our natural resources with technological advancements, enabling us to produce enough resources to sustain the growing population,” said a demographer.

We’re still uncertain about the Earth’s true carrying capacity, as the variables are constantly shifting. One thing is clear—it’s not the population itself that will be the problem. In the developed world, population growth has largely stabilized or begun to decline, and the developing world is on track to follow suit.

Education and access to contraception are helping to reduce population numbers, even if cities may not yet reflect this trend.

“People often perceive these cities as overcrowded and hectic. In reality, what’s happened is that planners haven’t fully accounted for the fact that population growth was going to occur regardless. Also, a more significant factor impacting the environment is not just population growth, but the consumption patterns associated with it,” said Anna Walnycki of the Institute for Environment and Development.

As observed worldwide, consumption, unlike population, is on an exponential rise. When we examine consumption levels across different contexts—globally, across cities, and even within cities—they are highly unequal.

Each year, researchers assess the Earth’s annual resource budget and calculate when it will be depleted. When examining this by country, the differences are striking. Many nations in the Middle East and West use up their resources within the first quarter of the year, while a few countries, like India, have yet to overshoot their share.

The average American consumes 16 times more resources than the average Indian. Correspondingly, the carbon dioxide emissions also vary significantly. In 2018, an Indian family of four had a carbon footprint of less than 8 tonnes, while an American family of four in the same year emitted nearly 70 tonnes.

Population and cosumption — Image: Powershift

Shouldn’t we then focus on who is consuming and how much, rather than just counting the number of people?

One of the first studies to compare global emissions involved more than 200 diverse researchers and policymakers. The result, called “Project Drawdown,” published a definitive list of strategies for reducing our environmental impact.

The way we keep things cool is one of our most significant offenses against the planet. Air conditioners and refrigerators still largely emit greenhouse gases far more potent than carbon dioxide when cooling or transporting frozen goods. The project estimates that switching to more efficient cooling systems could reduce emissions five times more than if all cars were converted to electric.

Another major contributor on the list is something we can all address individually: nearly a third of all global emissions come from the food system.

No one can deny that the human population affects the environment, but at present, wealthier countries emit so much carbon that even an increase of 3 or 4 billion people in the global South would not significantly alter the rate of climate change.

called Project Drawdown environmental impact — **Project Drawdown**, Image : Powershift

Lowering consumption also seems much easier than deciding whether such a large population should or shouldn’t exist.

Saying that there are too many people is somewhat unkind, as no individual would ever think there are too many—after all, no one would say that about themselves.

It’s time to shift the narrative from the easily blamed visual issue of population to the more hidden and dangerous problems of waste and overconsumption.

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