“Putin has already shown what kind of ally he is”: why Russia is not saving Iran and what to expect next

Putin has already shown what kind of ally he is: why Russia is not saving Iran and what to expect next

Olha Konsevych

Despite the fact that Russia and Iran are allies and partners, Moscow is not helping the Iranian regime defend itself against US and Israeli attacks, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha noted on X after the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military campaign.

“Most likely, Putin is far more concerned about rising oil prices than about his ‘partners’ in Tehran,” he aptly said.

This is despite the fact that the countries have agreements on strategic partnership and Iran has provided weapons assistance to Russia for waging its bloody war in Ukraine.

A bet on Russia was a mistake

Russia has continued to issue only standard condemnations following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other senior Iranian officials as a result of US-Israeli strikes, without offering any other support, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in its report.

“It seems to me that, as of today, Putin has already shown what kind of ally he is in Syria, when they were essentially unable to support Assad’s regime. Likewise, in my opinion, they have now shown their weakness again. This means that they are worthless as allies. All their forces – all military forces and other formations – are in Ukraine. They have no more forces. And what is happening in Iran, to my mind, is a good signal for Putin to see how dictatorships end,” said Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking during an online chat with Ukrainian and international journalists, including Mahabahu.

His view is shared by Ihor Semyvolos, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Association of Middle East Studies. “Before our eyes, the Moscow–Tehran axis is falling apart. It has been confirmed that Iran indeed appealed to Russia, relying on the clauses on ‘mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.’ Moscow, who would be surprised, resorted to legal casuistry: since the US and Israeli strikes are framed as ‘targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,’ rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a case that does not fall under the collective defense clause,” he wrote on his Facebook page.

According to his information, Russia not only refused, but, according to some reports, even switched off transponders and active radars at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles in order to avoid accidental involvement and any justification for entering the conflict.

“And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and among the countries of the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an ‘ally until the first serious challenge.’ Iranian elites, especially the pragmatic wing, are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe,” the expert concluded.

Thus, the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed on January 17, 2025, contains articles that should have helped Iran.

Under Article 3, the parties undertake to strengthen relations on the basis of the principles of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. In the event of aggression against one of the parties, the other party undertakes not to provide assistance to the aggressor. Articles 4–6 regulate military and military-technical cooperation, including intelligence sharing, joint exercises, and cooperation in the field of military-technical collaboration.

Despite the “template condemnations,” no real support has been observed so far. Of course, Russia is far more interested in the war against Ukraine.

Nuclear and oil issues

Meanwhile, France and Germany have created a nuclear weapons coordination group to cooperate on issues of nuclear deterrence.

Merz stated on X that the initiative belongs to him and French President Emmanuel Macron, and that they are planning certain “concrete steps.”

The President of France, the only nuclear power on the European continent, announced plans to increase the number of French nuclear warheads and readiness to deploy nuclear weapons in allied European countries.

Ukraine is also ready to help if there is a need specifically in training and the use of technologies. “Regarding our drone and air defense operators, we have very experienced personnel. We are ready to share this knowledge. Let our partners come to us; we can continue this. We are open to sharing both our experience and technologies, and so on,” he specified.

As for economic issues, Bloomberg reports that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a halt due to the regional conflict, and even a slight disruption of flows could lead to a significant supply deficit on the global market.

This narrow maritime artery, through which about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil exports and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass, has turned into a high-risk zone for shipping.

“Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC have today confirmed that they are completely suspending passage through the Strait of Hormuz ‘until further notice.’ Most vessels are being rerouted around Africa (via the Cape of Good Hope). Even if Beijing has negotiated reopening – as previously reported – insurance companies (including London’s Lloyd’s) have effectively blocked traffic. War risk insurance premiums for ships have increased by 50%, and for many voyages coverage has been canceled altogether. No captain will enter the strait without insurance,” Ihor Semyvolos added.

Analysts expect prices to remain high while the conflict continues. On March 2, the benchmark Brent crude rose by ten percent compared to Friday, to $79.41 per barrel. This, in turn, could lead to higher gasoline prices and eventually food prices worldwide.

It is believed that Russia, as one of the world’s oil exporters, could benefit from rising prices. However, the situation is not so straightforward. Everything depends on which forces come to power in Iran, and US President Donald Trump stated that the operation against Iran could last “up to four weeks”. If there is a change of regime to a democratic one, sanctions will be lifted, and Russia will lose a lucrative advantage and a source of support for its exhausted economy. Any prolonged war or chaos in the Middle East, however, benefits Russia on the oil market.

Olha Konsevych: Journalist, researcher; Vital Voices; GMF; WZB Berlin ;  Max Planck Society alumna ;Mahabahu Correspondent

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