Roadmap for India and the World to Keep 1.5 C Alive

Roadmap for India and the World to Keep 1.5 C Alive

RITURAJ PHUKAN

The recent report “Solving the climate conundrum: Piecing together a global approach to keeping 1.5 alive,” from the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG0) examines the global challenge of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and focuses on the obstacles to achieving this goal, particularly highlighting the complex interplay of funding issues, equitable solutions, national political cycles, global power imbalances, and resistance from the fossil fuel industry.

This report examines the global challenge of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and focuses on the obstacles to achieving this goal, particularly highlighting the complex interplay of funding issues, equitable solutions, national political cycles, global power imbalances, and resistance from the fossil fuel industry.

It delves into the specific challenges faced by four countries – the US, India, Ghana, and Brazil – examining their individual approaches to climate action, their vulnerabilities to climate change, and their efforts to navigate the complex landscape of economic development, social equity, and environmental stewardship.

As one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, India faces severe challenges from extreme heatwaves and their cascading impacts on public health, agriculture, and economic productivity. The path forward will require balancing the needs of a growing population with the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels, while ensuring energy security and economic growth.

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In 2024, India saw its longest heatwave in history in over 23 heatwave-prone states. Over 37 cities in north and central India experienced daytime highs above 45°C. Delhi and other cities suffered heatwave conditions for over 40 days continuously, facing compounded health impacts from extreme heat and air pollution. This heatwave has led to over 40,000 suspected heat stroke cases since March, record-breaking power demand, lower water levels in reservoirs, and damage to crops.

While India continues its efforts to reduce emissions, it emphasizes that limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C requires a unified global response. There are major concerns as developed countries fall short of their promises, and also fall short of what is fair in an equitable transition. The report also underscores the urgent need for enhanced national commitments (NDCs), particularly from wealthier nations, to accelerate the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

The report emphasizes that developed nations have benefited significantly from fossil fuel-driven economies, while poorer nations bear a disproportionate burden of climate change impacts despite their minimal contributions to the problem. This disparity underscores the moral imperative for wealthier nations to provide financial assistance, technology sharing, and compensation for irreversible losses to support the resilience and adaptation efforts of those most affected.

Currently, NDCs for developed countries give a 36 per cent reduction in emissions compared to 2019. This is much less than the 43 per cent reduction needed on the global average to limit warming to 1.5°C. Developed countries are projected to collectively emit 3.7 GtCO2e more in 2030 than what is pledged in their NDCs.

Since achieving the 1.5°C target relies on the world staying within the UNFCCC remaining ‘carbon budget’ (say 500 Gt CO2), even if developed countries achieve net zero by 2050, they are going to emit about 40 to 50 per cent of this remaining carbon budget.

Developing countries like India, are then left with limited carbon space, even though they are least responsible for climate change and accumulated historic emissions. This threatens the world’s capability for staying within a 1.5°C guardrail. For India to maintain its 1.5C ambition, substantial international support, especially from the Global North, would be key.

Recognizing methane as a potent greenhouse gas, the report stresses the significance of reducing its emissions to mitigate global warming effectively. It calls for swift action to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel operations, emphasizing the economic viability and existing technologies available for achieving substantial reductions.

The report advocates for a multi-pronged approach involving stronger commitments, advanced monitoring, increased investment, and international collaboration to achieve meaningful methane abatement.

The report identifies the urgent need to accelerate the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources as the most critical step in mitigating climate change. However, it acknowledges the intricate interplay of funding challenges, equitable solutions, political cycles, power imbalances, and resistance from the fossil fuel industry as major impediments to this transition.

In rapidly developing economies, coal has powered progress, making a shift to cleaner energy challenging, and seen as risking economic setbacks. India relies heavily on coal and feels unfairly singled out by international climate agreements that target coal for reduction, while oil and gas receive less scrutiny. The failure of wealthy nations to honour their funding commitments is also frequently mentioned. However, rapidly phasing out all fossil fuels in the coming decade is crucial for achieving global Net Zero by 2050.

The CCAG was founded as a proactive response to the urgent climate emergency and the growing disconnect between scientific understanding and concrete action. This group was born out of a critical need to bridge this gap, ensuring that the insights and recommendations from the scientific community are directly translated into effective, tangible measures to combat the climate crisis.

CCAG’s 4R Planet Strategy are reducing emissions, removing excess GHGs, building resilience, and repairing climate systems. As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, the goal is to stabilize the atmosphere at 350 ppm CO2e, creating a more manageable and livable world.

This report has talked about the urgent need for an energy transition, thereby reducing emissions drastically and quickly around the world. Similarly, removal strategies include both nature-based and technology-based solutions like Direct Air Capture. Repair, including climate intervention, could improve local conditions and buy time for the planet. These include forest management, glacier protection, strengthening sea ice and cooling ecosystems.

Strategies to increase resilience must consider social and economic inequalities, biodiversity loss, overall unsustainable consumption of resources, land and ecosystem degradation, urbanization, demography shifts, as well as climatic global trends.

Interventions such as restoring mangrove forests, wetlands, and woodlands can improve biodiversity, reduce land and ecosystem degradation, and support local, vulnerable, economic and traditional livelihoods, all while bolstering natural defences against severe weather events and their impacts and sequestering carbon.

The efforts made today may not yield tangible results for a decade or more, but without them, the options for a safe future for humanity will continue to erode. Just as the relatively straightforward decarbonization pathways available 20 years ago are no longer enough, failing to act now across all relevant climate governance mechanisms and spheres would make limiting global warming to 1.5°C or even returning to 1.5°C after an overshoot impossible.

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