Sea Levels Rise: Will the movie ‘Waterworld’ become a reality soon?

Sea Levels Rise: Will the movie ‘Waterworld’ become a reality soon?

KAKALI DAS

Humans have always been fascinated by stories of civilizations swallowed by the sea, like Atlantis and Lemuria, or even the futuristic world of “Waterworld” starring Kevin Costner.

In the 1995 film, the polar ice caps have completely melted, and the sea has risen over 7,600 meters, covering almost all of the land.

Today, these kinds of stories might not be as far-fetched as they once seemed, or aren’t limited to a fictional plot in the movies.

Ocean levels, in reality, are rising faster than ever. Cities worldwide are responding by building higher sea walls, elevating homes, and even creating new land by reclaiming space from the ocean.

But will these efforts be enough? Can we really adjust to the rising sea levels?

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If you live in the mountains, you’re probably safe. However, around 1 billion people live within 10 kilometers of the coast, including major cities like Mumbai, New York, Shanghai, and Jakarta. For these cities, the rising sea is a serious threat.

Since 1880, sea levels have already risen by more than 20 centimeters, and the rise is speeding up. Right now, sea levels are rising by about 3 to 4 millimeters every year. This might not seem like much, but over a lifetime, that adds up. By the end of the century, sea levels could be about 1 meter higher than they were in 1900, or even more.

Sharon Gray, a marine scientist at the Rising Seas Institute in Florida, believes the rise could be 2 to 3 meters by 2100, depending on our emissions.

There are two main reasons why the sea levels are rising, and we humans are behind both of them. The first is melting ice. Average temperatures have increased by about 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, causing glaciers and ice sheets in places like Greenland and Antarctica to melt. This meltwater contributes to rising sea levels.

The second reason is thermal expansion, meaning water expands as it warms, similar to how liquid in a thermometer rises when heated. The oceans are warming, and this expansion is also contributing to rising sea levels. Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels today, the oceans will continue to warm for many years because they absorb 90% of the heat trapped by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

But sea level rise isn’t the same everywhere. Ocean currents and gravity shift water around, causing it to rise more in some areas than in others. This causes problems for coastal infrastructure like ports and power plants.

Rising seas also bring storm surges, flooding, and erosion, which harm farmlands and contaminate drinking water.

So what can we do about it? One option is protection. For centuries, people have relied on sea walls, dikes, levees, and embankments to hold back the sea.

For example, in northern Germany, authorities calculate how high the dikes should be every 10 years based on predicted sea levels 100 years in the future. Sea walls are found all over the world, but they are expensive to build and maintain. Renovating just 750 meters of a dyke can cost €4.6 million. Poorer regions often can’t afford such infrastructure. And there are risks. If a wall fails, the water can flood a city, and sometimes, the water can’t flow out, making the problem worse.

Along the coast of India, fishing villages rely on the beach for their livelihoods. Replacing the beach with a sea wall could isolate these communities from the ocean, taking away their source of income.

There are other ways to protect the coastline. Natural barriers like salt marshes, mangrove forests, and wetlands help buffer the coast against flooding. In South India, mangroves are being planted to protect against floods. Their roots stabilize the beaches and reduce coastal erosion. Mangroves can even trap up to 80% of the sediment washed up, helping to rebuild beaches, but only if they are planted in areas without strong tides.

Another advantage of mangroves is that they can move inland as sea levels rise, continuing to protect the coastline. However, many mangroves have been cut down to make space for development. The increasing value of land along the coast is one of the main reasons for this loss of mangroves.

Another approach is to learn to live with the water. In New York, large parts of the city are at risk from flooding. After Hurricane Sandy caused over $60 billion in damage in 2012, the city started using new construction standards to reduce flood risks. Buildings in flood-prone areas must be elevated or sealed to prevent water from entering. Some projects even raise buildings higher to add extra protection.

In Indonesia’s Timbulsloko village, where both rising seas and land subsidence are problems, residents have been raising their homes on stilts. However, they can’t raise the houses much higher. In MuaraAngke, Jakarta, houses are built on steel stilts to withstand the salty sea water. In the Netherlands, residents of Schoonschip live in floating homes, which stay high and dry.

There are even ideas for whole floating cities. OceanixBusan, a UN-backed plan for a district in Busan Harbor, looks great in computer-generated images, but real-world construction has been slow due to challenges like securing reliable power and water, managing waste, and withstanding storms. For now, these floating cities are still more of a dream than a reality.

Another idea is to create new, higher land. In the Maldives, a new island is being built with dredged land to house 65,000 people. Over the past 25 years, the Maldives has been expanding its capital, Malé, onto artificial islands to prevent overcrowding. Tuvalu, a low-lying island nation in the Pacific, is also building new land to protect against rising sea levels.

But creating new land is not the only solution they’re considering. On November 9, 2023, Tuvalu signed a migration pact with Australia, allowing 280 Tuvaluans to move there each year. Since 1993, sea levels in parts of the Pacific have risen almost twice the global rate, and without action, Tuvalu could be flooded regularly by the end of the century. To preserve their culture, Tuvalu is even creating digital 3D maps so the country can live on in digital form even if the land disappears.

Retreating from the coast is the most drastic solution and comes with many challenges. Moving entire populations is complicated and raises questions about social, cultural, and financial impacts. However, for many decision-makers, sea level rise is seen as a “future problem,” something that won’t happen within their lifetime. Politicians, often focused on short-term goals, may not prioritize the slow rise of sea levels.

Despite this, we must face the reality that climate change is here. Waiting for two or more disasters before acting is not a viable strategy. Smart adaptation requires long-term planning that considers the unique needs of each area. However, none of these measures will be enough without reducing fossil fuel use, the primary cause of global warming.

Otherwise, future generations could end up like Kevin Costner in “Waterworld”, searching for the last dry land.

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