Statistics in search of truth

Monjit Narayan Deka

It is said:  “A knowledge is, in the final analysis, History.  All sciences are, in the abstract, Mathematics.” 

National Professor, India C. R. Rao added: “All methods of acquiring knowledge are essentially through statistics.”

It is difficult to deny the relationship of Probability (chance), Statistics and Truth. The concepts of uncertainty and randomness have baffled mankind for a long time.  We face uncertainties every moment in the physical and social environment in which we live.

Nobel laureate Antole France remarks- “Chance is perhaps the pseudonym of God when he did not want to sign.”

Philosophers from the time of Aristotle acknowledged the role of chance in life, attributed it to something which violates order and remains beyond one’s scope of comprehension. The chance is inherent in all natural phenomena and the only way of understanding nature and making optimum predictions is to study the laws of chance and formulate appropriate rules of action to be expressed in probabilistic terms.

C. R. Rao: “All human activity is based on forecasting (chance): entering a college, taking a job or marrying, investing money etc.  We are constantly forecasting under uncertainty and any decision we take does not carry its full implication unless the amount of uncertainty is specified in a meaningful way. Attempt to quantify uncertainty, have begun only in the beginning of the twentieth century using the calculus of probability, a subject which had its origin in understanding games of chance about 300 years ago and which is now a highly technical and a fullfledged discipline.” 

French philosopher, scientist, logician, and mathematician René Descartes said three hundred years ago “It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is true we ought to follow what is most probable.”

The chance is the way to present our knowledge. Chance may be the antithesis of all law. But the way out is to discover the law of chance. The classic example of chance is the development of random numbers table exploring uncertainty involves the use of randomly arranged numbers to draw a token numbered 0,1,….,9 from a bag one by one after thoroughly shuffling the bag.

Supposing to exhibit maximum uncertainty (chaos) i.e. there is no clue for guessing the outcome of the next number. Now the production of random numbers is a multibillion dollar industry around the world involving considerable research and sophisticated high speed computers.

Karl Pearson, the British mathematician, was the first to perceive the use of random numbers for solving the problems in probability and statistics that are too complex for exact solution. The most important use of random numbers is in generating data in sample surveys and in experimental work.

Professor Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis Indian Statistician exploited Monte Carlo techniques, which he called random sampling experiments, to solve a variety of problems like the choice of optimum sampling plan in survey work. The Statistical theory tells us estimated values 

through random samples tend to the true value of unknown parameters as the sample size increases (or repeated experiments).  Interesting application of the Monte-Carlo method is the estimation of π=3.14159265… a ratio of the perimeter of a circle to its diameter.

Albert Einstein accepted the chance behaviour of molecules suggested by Satyendra Nath Bose, resulted in the Bose-Einstein theory. Chance used as a tool in model building and predictions in weather forecasting, in molecular behaviour, in Quantum mechanics, use in solving complex problems,  demand for consumer goods, lottery, insurance, future needs of services like housing, schools, hospitals, transport facilities and so on.

Statistics as a method of learning from experience and decision making under uncertainty must have been practiced from the beginning of mankind. Statistics: an inevasible instrument in search of truth. Vic Barnett, Professor Emeritus of Statistics in Comparative Statistical Inference wrote “….statistics as the study of how information should be employed to reflect on and give guidance for action in, a practical situation involving uncertainty.”

“If there is a problem to be solved, seek for statistical advice instead of appointing a committee of experts. Statistics and statistical analysis can throw more light than the collective wisdom of the articulate few- C. R. Rao.” The improvement of natural knowledge and the success of decision making, statistical ideas play an important role in scientific and other investigations. Statistics is now evolving as a versatile, powerful and indispensable instrument for investigation in all fields of human endeavour.

Some examples:

Some years ago, Thomas Roger Trauntmann Professor Emeritus, Michigan University (1971) made a statistical investigation of the authorship and date of publication of Arthaśāstra. He found considerable variation in the styles of prose in different parts of the book and came to conclusion that Kautilya could not have been the sole author of Arthaśāstra and it must have been written by several authors at different periods of time, centering on the middle of second century AD. Since there is no other known works of Kautilya, it is difficult to say which part he wrote.

Salt in statistics: Due to communal riots in Delhi in 1947 immediately after India achieved independence a large number of people of minority community took refuge in the Red Fort and Humayun Tomb which are protected areas. The Government had the responsibility to feed these refugees. The task was entrusted to contractors, and in the absence of any knowledge about the number of refugees, the government was forced to accept and pay the amounts quoted by the contractors for different commodities.

The government expenditure on this account seemed to be high and it was suggested that statisticians may be asked to find the number of refugees inside the Red Fort. The problem appeared to be difficult under prevailing troubled condition. A further complication arose as the statistical experts called on to do the job belonged to the majority community. It was difficult to estimate the number of refugees by physical verification.

The salt method arose out of an idea suggested by late J.M. Sengupta of ISI utilizing the available statistical information.  The quantities of rice, pulse and salt used per day to feed the refugees divided by per capita consumption of commodities in a day must provide same number of persons. When these values are computed it was found smallest value for salt and rice has the highest value which is most expensive. The idea behind it is statistical reasoning or quantitative thinking. The estimate provided by the statisticians was useful to the government in taking administrative decision. 

Similarly statistical techniques may be applied in – Dating of publications, Filiation of Manuscripts, The Language Tree, Geological Time Scale, Common breeding-ground of eels, The importance of being left-handed, Circadian rhythm-of biological process recurring naturally on a twenty-four-hour cycle, Disputed paternity, Economy of blood testing, Machine building factories to increase food production so on.

Statistical methods have been of great value specially in biological and social sciences where is range of variation in observations is often large and the member of observations is often limited; only statistical analysis can give a quantitative estimate of the significance of finding in such situation. The scope of statistics as it is understood, studied and practiced today extends to the whole gamut of natural and social sciences, engineering and technology, management and economic affairs and art and literature.

The layman uses statistics for taking decisions in daily life, or making future plans. The statistical literacy in our modern age dominated by science and technology is necessary for efficient citizenship. Statistical expertise is in great demand in all fields of human endeavour.

Prof. P. C. Mahalanobis: “….statistics is the only court of appeal to new knowledge.” 

Ref: Statistics and Truth- C.R.Rao (first edition).

NB: Nation celebrating the twentieth National Statistics Day on 29th June 2026, by proudly remembering the pioneers of the statistical movement in post independence India, the father of Indian statistics Prof. P. C. Mahalanobis, Prof. C.R. Rao and the extra ordinary Assamese scholar in Mathematical Statistics & globally regarded master of Probability Theory Prof. Jyoti Prasad Medhi. People also deeply acknowledge the exceptional contributions made by the statisticians of India.

Monjit Narayan Deka, M-9435050410

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