Climate
–Rituraj Phukan |
This has been a summer of reckoning, more than ever, about where we are headed as a species on an imperiled planet. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report has caused widespread dismay, published in the middle of a brutal period of unprecedented climate disasters in every region.
The first part of the IPCC’s sixth Assessment Report (AR6), The Physical Science Basis or Working Group I (WGI) report, stated that “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land,” strongly blaming humans for the climate crisis. Published on August 9, the report projects that Earth will pass the threshold of 1.5-degree Celsius warming above preindustrial levels within the next 20 years.
Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now the highest in the past 2 million years, contributing to rapid rise in global temperatures, the report said. Global temperatures have increased faster than in any other 50-year period in the last 2,000 years since 1970, with some regions like the poles warming faster. Consequently, heat waves are increasing in frequency and intensity along with other extreme weather events.
The IPCC scientists say that some of the changes in the climate system are unprecedented in thousands of years and possibly irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years. These include changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. The authors have said that abrupt changes and climatic ‘tipping points’ cannot be ruled out, including rapid melting of the Antarctic ice sheets and forest dieback, which will be catastrophic for human civilization. Already, global sea-level rise is the fastest in over 3000 years and is likely to continue to rise for hundreds of years.
For the first time, the report also mentions the need for “strong, rapid and sustained reductions” of methane emissions in addition to slashing CO2 emissions. Methane is even more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas in the short term, and animal agriculture is a major source. The UN estimates that methane emissions are responsible for around 30% of warming since the preindustrial era and has called for transformative changes in food production and consumption, including adoption of plant-based diets.
The IPCC was set up by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 with an initial mandate to prepare a comprehensive review of available knowledge on climate change and its likely social and economic impacts to present to policymakers for facilitating informed decisions and policies. The AR6 will be completed with the publication of the Working Group II report on ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ and the Working Group III report on ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’ early next year, followed by an integrated Synthesis Report.
Extreme heat waves, droughts, and wildfires have smashed records across continents. The term ‘Heat Dome’ entered the lexicon after record heatwaves across North America and Europe attributed to climate change dynamics. Furnace Creek in Death Valley, California, experienced the highest reliable temperature record on earth. Europe has been hit by severe heatwaves with Nordic countries experiencing record temperatures as well.
Wildfires raged across North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia throughout the summer. Taiga forests and peatlands covering thousands of miles across Russia and Siberia are on fire prompting a state of emergency in some areas. Smoke from these fires have reached as far as the North Pole. Apocalyptic scenes of wildfires threatening communities emerged out of the USA, Canada, Israel, France, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and Algeria.Floods in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Romania Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Switzerland led to unprecedented loss of lives. Floods also devastated the Henan province of China and Turkey. In India, several states were affected by floods during the same period.
On the other hand, severe drought conditions continue in some nations. In Argentina, large stretches of the Paraná River, the second-largest river system in South America, has dried up. Millions are starving in drought-hit Madagascar with entire villages reportedly surviving on cactus leaves. The food situation is another drought hit country- Ethiopia is also deteriorating.
Last month scientists found that 16 out of 31 key indicators of the global climate crisis were getting worse and close to reaching tipping points. The findings elaborated in the ‘World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021’ included the astounding fact that the Amazon Forest now produce more than a billion tons of CO2 a year and are no longer a carbon sink.
The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres termed the latest IPCC report a “Code Red for Humanity,” reflecting the worldwide consternation immediately after it was published. He has called for solar and wind capacity to quadruple by 2030, and renewable energy investments to triple for a net zero trajectory by mid-century. “The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk,” the Secretary-General said in a statement.
The President of COP26 Alok Sharma wants global action. “Our message to every country, government, business and part of society is simple. The next decade is decisive, follow the science and embrace your responsibility to keep the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius alive. We can do this together, by coming forward with ambitious 2030 emission reduction targets and long-term strategies with a pathway to net-zero by the middle of the century, and taking action now to end coal power, accelerate the roll-out of electric vehicles, tackle deforestation and reduce methane emissions,” he said.
The month of July has “earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded. This declaration by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration adds fuel to the fire created by the IPCC report with huge expectations from the upcoming UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP26) at Glasgow in November. Countries must heed the call for more ambitious climate action plans and finances for an immediate transition process to renewable economies. This is Now or Never- A Climate Red Alert.