The 2024 Report of Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change!

KAKALI DAS

The new Lancet Report stands out as one of the most credible and alarming assessments of the state of the globe in 2024, highlighting the severe impacts of climate change.

The 2024 Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change emphasizes the growing threats that climate change poses to human health. It reveals that individuals are experiencing unprecedented risks due to delayed action on climate issues. Key findings indicate an increase in heat-related deaths, food insecurity, and the spread of infectious diseases.

The 2024 Report of Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change

Here are some key quotes that should raise significant concern among all of us. To begin with, the world is dangerously close to exceeding its target of limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Remember, the further we exceed the 1.5-degree threshold, the greater the likelihood that the changes will become irreversible—a scenario we must avoid. Such shifts could fundamentally alter our entire way of life.

Earlier this year, the annual mean surface temperature soared to a record high of 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline for 2023, with new temperature extremes recorded throughout 2024. This underscores the severity of the situation.

The 2024 Lancet Countdown report, drawing on the expertise of 122 leading researchers from UN agencies and academic institutions around the world, presents some of the most alarming findings in the collaboration’s eight years of monitoring.

One major concern that has emerged is the record-breaking 167% increase in heat-related mortality among people over 65 years of age compared to the 1990s.

Another critical factor is that 151 million people are experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity. Additionally, 48% of land has endured at least one month of extreme drought.

The key point about heat exposure is crucial. Firstly, heat exposure is increasingly impacting physical activity and sleep quality, which in turn affects both physical and mental health. In 2023, there was a record 6% increase in hours of sleep lost compared to the average between 1986 and 2005.

Heat not only affects physical activity but also significantly impacts sleep, both of which have been severely affected.

Hot and dry weather conditions are increasingly facilitating the occurrence of sand and dust storms. This environmental phenomenon has contributed to a 31% increase in the number of people exposed to dangerously high levels of particulate matter concentrations between 2003–2007 and 2018–2022.

The average annual economic losses from weather-related extreme events increased by 23% from 2010-2014 to 2019-2023, totaling $227 billion. This amount surpasses the gross domestic product of approximately 60% of the world’s economies.

The issue of dangerously high concentrations of particulate matter is crucial. One contributing factor is the burning of polluting biomass, such as wood and cow dung, which still accounts for 92% of the energy used in homes by people in countries with low human development indexes. Additionally, in parts of North India, the frequent occurrence of sand and dust storms further exacerbates this alarming situation.

“We are witnessing the effects of climate change as outlined in the report. The significant impact it is already having on people’s lives around the world is evident. Once we exceed the 1.5-degree mark, we must carefully consider the implications.

It is crucial to minimize how much the temperature surpasses that threshold, as even a small increase can make a significant difference in people’s lives and health. Therefore, we need to take action to limit temperature rise,” stated one of the report’s authors.

Sunita Narain Director General of the Centre for Science and Environment — Sunita Narain, Director General of the Centre for Science and Environment.

“The latest research on the recent intense heat in much of India reveals a concerning trend: night-time temperatures are not dropping as they should. Traditionally, cities would cool down at night, but now, the lack of cooling has serious implications for mortality and well-being, as our bodies need time to cool off. This rise in night-time temperatures is partly due to urbanization, with increasing concrete structures and vehicles leading to more fossil fuel burning and elevated temperatures. Furthermore, the demand for air conditioning to combat rising heat contributes to this cycle, as these cooling devices further heat our cities,” stated Sunita Narain, Director General of the Centre for Science and Environment.

We are entering a vicious cycle where cities are heating up not only during the day but also at night.

Heart-breaking stories reveal how people are dying at night because their bodies lack time to recover. We must recognize that heat is a killer; it has become an inferno.

We must also acknowledge that, at current emission rates, we are likely to breach the 1.5-degree guardrail by 2030 or 2032. However, it’s important to remember that 70% of the world still needs the right to develop. By that time, we will have exhausted the carbon budget required to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, while much of the world still requires access to housing and energy.

Every 0.1 degrees of warming leads to accelerating impacts, and recent studies indicate that certain key ecosystems will transition into new states if we exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Notably, the Amazon rainforest and Arctic ice are two critical ecosystems at risk. Changes in these ecosystems are irreversible on human timescales; they will not return to their current conditions within a human lifespan. Furthermore, these alterations will contribute to increased carbon dioxide emissions from the Amazon, exacerbating the problem.

Moreover, the impacts of climate change are non-linear. Over the past year, we have effectively glimpsed the future, as the average global warming has risen to about 1.5 to 1.6 degrees Celsius. This temperature may decrease slightly next year as the effects of El Niño fade, but it will likely rise again due to greenhouse gas emissions.

Since 2012, the rate of warming has accelerated to approximately 0.3 degrees per decade. As we move forward, the impacts discussed earlier— which are already highly unequal— will accelerate in a non-linear manner, as highlighted in the report.

The report addresses the impact of heat on workers, particularly in less developed countries, highlighting its significant effects on their well-being.

Unfortunately, the adaptation measures currently being implemented are both insufficient and class-based. For example, the report notes the growth of air conditioning over the last 20 years, highlighting that this response primarily benefits those who can afford it.

“What is extremely concerning is what the report fails to address. It primarily includes data and studies from 2022 and 2023, largely excluding information from 2024. For instance, the unprecedented heat in Northwest India earlier this year, where temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius for more than 40 days and minimum temperatures reached 33 degrees Celsius, is not mentioned in this report. This will likely be addressed in next year’s report, which is deeply worrying” – NagrajAdve, Climate Activist

The risks of people dying from heat are particularly acute for infants and those over 65 years of age. Both groups are now facing much longer heat wave durations than they did in the 1990s.

In India, where 40% of the population works in agriculture, outdoor agricultural workers are especially vulnerable to these effects. Individuals experiencing stress, those with underlying cardiovascular issues, kidney problems, and diabetes are particularly at risk.

Moreover, there are numerous indirect ways in which rising temperatures are impacting people, such as increased food insecurity and longer seasons for diseases like dengue and malaria.

The report also indicates that 48% of the global land area was affected by at least one month of extreme drought in 2023, marking the second-largest area impacted since 1951. This contributes to the broader issue. In India, we are witnessing significant fluctuations in weather patterns repeatedly.

We must acknowledge this as the new normal and hope that things begin to reverse within our lifetime. However, even if changes do occur, they won’t happen as quickly as many people expect.

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