The Climate Countdown: Why the Next Five Years Are Critical

Rituraj Phukan

The latest UN Emissions Gap Report delivers a stark reality check: The world is far off track in its fight against climate change. Despite international pledges and policies, we are nowhere near the emissions cuts needed to prevent catastrophic global warming.

The Science: A Race Against Time

To keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels—the threshold for avoiding the most severe climate impacts—greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must plummet by 42% by 2030 and 56% by 2035 (compared to 2023 levels). Yet, under current policies, we’re looking at a less than 1% reduction by 2030 and 2035.

The Climate Countdown: Why the Next Five Years Are Critical

In simple terms, the world needs unprecedented action, at an unprecedented pace. If we don’t make massive cuts by 2030, there will be no way to course-correct in time to stay within the 1.5°C limit.

2025: A Make-or-Break Year

There is, however, a major opportunity ahead. By early 2025, countries will submit their next set of climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. These pledges outline how nations plan to cut emissions over the next decade.

But here’s the problem: Even if current NDCs were fully implemented, we would still be on track for 2.6-2.8°C (4.7-5°F) of warming—a scenario that could lead to deadly heatwaves, rising sea levels, and extreme weather on an unimaginable scale.

For 2025, we need a quantum leap in ambition and immediate action across all sectors. That means setting aggressive new targets for 2035 and strengthening the 2030 goals. And this time, it’s not just about vague promises—countries must include clear, sector-specific targets to ensure real, measurable progress.

What Needs to Change? A Sector-by-Sector Breakdown

The path to a livable future requires transformative shifts across every part of the economy. Here’s what that looks like:

1. Power: The End of Fossil Fuels

Coal-fired power must drop by 89% by 2030 and 97% by 2035.Renewable energy (wind, solar, etc.) needs to increase by 125%-133% by 2030 and 150% by 2035.Energy storage, grid modernization, and efficiency improvements are critical to ensuring a smooth transition.

2. Buildings: The Energy Revolution

Retrofitting rates must rise by 150%-250% by 2030.New buildings must be zero-carbon, with construction of such buildings skyrocketing by 1,000% from today’s levels.Energy-efficient heating, cooling, and appliances must become the standard worldwide.

3. Industry: Cutting Carbon from Manufacturing

Industrial electrification must increase by up to 59% by 2035.Cement and steel production must slash emissions by at least 30%-45% by 2030.Innovations like green hydrogen and carbon capture will be crucial.

4. Transport: The Shift to Zero-Emission Mobility

Public transit must expand by 90% by 2030.Electric vehicle sales must surge by 690%-730% by 2035.Sustainable aviation and maritime fuels need a 1,000% boost by 2030.

5. Land & Ecosystems: Nature as a Climate Ally

Deforestation must drop by 65% by 2030 and 72% by 2035.Reforestation efforts must increase by 115% by 2035.Protecting wetlands, grasslands, and peatlands is essential for carbon sequestration.

6. Food & Agriculture: Rethinking What We Eat

Food loss and waste must be cut in half by 2030.Meat consumption in high-consuming regions must drop by 21%-26% by 2035.Farm productivity must increase to avoid further deforestation.

7. Carbon Removal Technologies: Capturing What We Can’t Avoid

Carbon dioxide removal technologies must scale up from nearly zero to massive deployment by 2030.Countries should set separate targets for emission reductions and removals.

The Final Call: The Time for Action Is Now

With the next round of climate commitments due in early 2025, the choices we make today will shape the future of our planet. Every country must step up with ambitious, timebound, and sector-specific targets. The world needs bold leadership, immediate implementation, and clear accountability.

This isn’t just about climate policies anymore—it’s about survival. The clock is ticking, and the stakes have never been higher. Will we rise to the challenge?

Rituraj Phukan: Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; Co-Founder, Smily Academy ;National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary. Rituraj Phukan is the Climate Editor, Mahabahu.

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