The Global Risks Report 2025: Navigating a Fragmented Future

The Global Risks Report 2025: Navigating a Fragmented Future

Rituraj Phukan

The Global Risks Report 2025 presents a sobering analysis of the world’s most pressing challenges, based on insights from over 900 global experts. The report divides risks into three timeframes—immediate (2025), short- to medium-term (2027), and long-term (2035)—helping decision-makers prioritize urgent crises while planning for the future.

Key themes include declining optimism, intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, societal fragmentation, escalating environmental threats, and emerging technological risks. Here’s a closer look at its findings.

A Decline in Optimism

Now in February 2025, the world appears increasingly fractured. Ongoing conflicts, extreme weather events, social and political polarization, and the rapid spread of misinformation are shaping a pessimistic global outlook.

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Survey results indicate that 52% of experts foresee an unsettled global landscape over the next two years, while 31% anticipate turbulence and 5% expect a stormy outlook. Over a 10-year horizon, this sentiment worsens, with 62% of respondents predicting a turbulent or stormy future. This scepticism highlights doubts about the ability of existing institutions to manage global fragility effectively.

This declining optimism is not without reason. The world is experiencing growing economic uncertainties, exacerbated by fluctuating inflation, stagnating wages, and ongoing global supply chain disruptions. Nations are struggling with rising debt, increasing income disparity, and social welfare concerns, all of which contribute to widespread unease.

Rising Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Tensions

One of the most alarming shifts in global risk perception is the rise of state-based armed conflict as a top concern. Ranked as the #1 current risk by 23% of respondents, it was not even a top concern in the survey two years ago. Conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan, and escalating violence in the Middle East and Sudan have heightened concerns about geopolitical instability beyond 2025.

The ranking of geoeconomic confrontation has also risen, reflecting worries about deteriorating global economic relations. The trade war between the United States and China continues to reshape global supply chains, impacting businesses and consumers worldwide. Meanwhile, cyber espionage and warfare now rank #5 in the two-year risk outlook, reflecting the increasing threats posed by state-sponsored cyberattacks and data breaches.

The role of misinformation and disinformation remains a top risk for 2027, highlighting how misleading narratives can influence political outcomes, disrupt societies, and undermine international trust. From deepfake technology to AI-generated misinformation, digital tools are now being weaponized to shape global events, elections, and public opinion at an unprecedented scale.

A Growing Divide in Society

Social fragmentation is a key issue highlighted in the risk interconnections map. Economic inequality is at the core of many interconnected risks, eroding trust and diminishing shared values. Other critical societal risks include societal polarization, involuntary migration, and the erosion of human rights and civic freedoms.

The rise of populist movements across the globe reflects a deepening divide between different social and economic groups. As economic hardship persists, disenfranchised communities are becoming more vocal, leading to widespread protests, political upheaval, and, in some cases, violence. The digital divide is also becoming more pronounced, with disparities in access to technology further marginalizing certain populations.

Concerns about economic downturns and inflation have eased slightly compared to previous years, but their lingering effects have exacerbated inequality, reinforcing its role as the most central global risk. While societal risks appear less dominant in the 10-year outlook compared to the short-term, long-term challenges such as inequality and polarization remain critical. Super-aging societies like Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Germany are particularly vulnerable, facing pension crises and labor shortages that could further strain social stability.

Global migration trends are another pressing concern. Climate change, political instability, and economic hardship are forcing millions to flee their homelands. Countries in Europe and North America are struggling to balance humanitarian responsibilities with domestic economic and political challenges. This has led to growing tensions over immigration policies and border security.

Environmental Risks: From Long-Term Threats to Immediate Crisis

Environmental risks, once considered long-term concerns, have become urgent realities. Extreme weather events top the 10-year risk ranking for the second consecutive year, and biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse follow closely behind.

The generational divide in risk perception is evident—young respondents rank pollution among the top three risks for 2035, while older generations place less emphasis on it. This divergence extends to different sectors as well, with the public sector ranking pollution as a top 10 risk for the next decade, while the private sector does not.

Climate change is accelerating at an alarming rate, with natural disasters becoming more frequent and severe. Wildfires, hurricanes, floods, and droughts are devastating communities, displacing millions, and causing billions of dollars in damages. The global response to climate change remains fragmented, with many countries failing to meet their emissions reduction targets.

Deforestation, ocean acidification, and the loss of biodiversity are further compounding environmental challenges. The depletion of natural resources is putting immense pressure on agriculture, leading to food shortages and rising prices. As these crises unfold, global cooperation is crucial in developing sustainable solutions, yet political and economic barriers continue to hinder progress.

Technological Risks: The Silent Threats

Despite the rapid adoption of AI tools, concerns about their adverse outcomes remain surprisingly low in the short-term risk rankings. However, complacency could be dangerous, as AI is poised to play a significant role in shaping societal polarization. Over a 10-year horizon, the risks associated with AI and biotechnology are expected to escalate.

The Global Risks Report 2025 explores how generative AI contributes to misinformation, while advances in biotech present both tremendous opportunities and potential threats. Emerging risks in biotech, including biological terrorism and the misuse of gene-editing technologies, could have profound consequences if not carefully managed.

The widespread use of AI in hiring, surveillance, law enforcement, and military applications has raised ethical and security concerns. The increasing automation of jobs is also fueling fears of mass unemployment, further exacerbating economic disparities. In the biotech sector, advancements in gene editing and synthetic biology present both opportunities for medical breakthroughs and risks of unintended consequences.

Cybersecurity remains a growing concern, with data breaches, ransomware attacks, and digital espionage posing major threats to businesses and governments. The rise of quantum computing could potentially upend existing encryption methods, making current cybersecurity measures obsolete.

The Urgent Need for Global Cooperation

A deepening divide in international relations raises concerns about whether global structures are equipped to tackle these interconnected risks. As major economies turn inward to address domestic challenges, multilateral cooperation is weakening at a time when it is most needed.

Survey results indicate that 64% of respondents believe the next decade will be defined by a multipolar or fragmented global order, where regional powers set competing norms. While the Western-led global order is expected to decline, new power centers—including China, India, and the Gulf states—are emerging.

With rising nationalism and protectionist policies, countries are prioritizing their own interests over global stability. This shift threatens to disrupt international trade, weaken alliances, and reduce the effectiveness of global institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.

The Path Forward: Collaboration or Crisis?

The coming decade presents a critical crossroads. Without coordinated efforts, the world risks descending into deeper conflict, economic instability, and environmental disaster. However, with strategic collaboration and decisive action, leaders can still mitigate these challenges and build a more resilient global future. The time to act is now.

Efforts must be made to strengthen international institutions, promote sustainable economic policies, and develop robust strategies to combat climate change. Investing in education, technology, and social infrastructure can help bridge societal divides and create a more equitable world. Ultimately, the path forward depends on the willingness of nations to prioritize cooperation over division and progress over stagnation. Source: World Economic ForumGlobal Risks Report 2025

Rituraj Phukan: Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; Co-Founder, Smily Academy ;National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary. Rituraj Phukan is the Climate Editor, Mahabahu.

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