The long goodbye: Why is Europe’s break from Russian oil and gas so uneasy?

Olha Konsevych

According to the Council of the European Union, energy ministers are scheduled to meet on 20 October 2025 to reach a “general approach” on a landmark proposal to gradually end the remaining imports of Russian oil and gas, culminating in a total ban by 1 January 2028.

The proposed regulation — covering both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — is a key element of the Repower EU Roadmap for Ending Russian Energy Imports, published by the European Commission in May 2025.

Yet, despite the upcoming milestone and sharp cuts in volumes since 2022, Europe continues to purchase Russian hydrocarbons. Analysts from the the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that EU member states imported roughly €11.4 billion worth of Russian oil and gas in the first eight months of 2025.

Who is still buying — and why

While the EU has reduced Russian energy imports by roughly 90 percent since 2022, dependence persists. In 2025, France, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Slovakia remain among the leading importers.

France increased its Russian energy purchases by about 40 percent (to €2.2 billion), mostly LNG.
The Netherlands imported roughly €498 million worth of Russian oil and gas — up 72 percent year-on-year.
Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely on pipeline gas via the Druzhba and TurkStream routes.

Much of the trade now occurs through LNG deliveries, often re-exported within Europe under existing long-term contracts. Two-thirds of these deals are legally binding beyond 2026, making abrupt cancellation costly.

Overall, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, EU countries have imported more than €213 billion worth of Russian energy, according to CREA. That amount far exceeds the €167 billion the EU has allocated to Ukraine in military, financial, and humanitarian aid over the same period, figures compiled by Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy show.

The message to Russia from EU

As Mahabahu clarified, the proposed regulation focuses primarily on natural gas, setting out a legally binding timetable for ending both pipeline and liquefied natural gas imports from Russia. For oil, the measure introduces a complementary requirement: each EU member state must prepare a national diversification plan by March 2026, outlining alternative supply routes, infrastructure adjustments, and strategies to eliminate remaining Russian crude imports.

According to the Council’s explanatory note, Russia has systematically manipulated gas markets and used energy supplies as a tool of political pressure, causing market disruptions and price shocks across the Union. On these grounds, the document states that Russia can no longer be regarded as a reliable trading partner for the EU.

Unlike the EU’s sanctions packages, which are temporary and coercive foreign policy instruments, this regulation establishes a permanent legal framework in trade and energy policy. Its aim is structural rather than punitive — to remove Russia from the European energy market altogether and safeguard the Union’s long-term energy security.

This summer, explaining the rationale, Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, emphasized: “Putin’s weaponization of energy reinforces the urgency to speed up the transition, diversify supplies, and invest in our own capacity to ensure reliable energy delivery and stable prices. This is crucial for our industrial competitiveness and the well-being of our citizens.”

The “general approach” – approved at the ambassadorial level earlier this month — represents a political agreement on the direction of legislation before ministers formally vote. It provides the legal and institutional framework for a complete embargo by 2028, combining climate goals with geopolitical strategy.

As Dan Jørgensen, EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing, put it bluntly: “The message to Russia is clear: You will no longer blackmail our Member States. Not one more euro to your war chest. Your gas will be banned. Your shadow fleet will be stopped. We do this to protect our security — but it is also a major step toward energy independence: producing our own clean, affordable energy instead of importing expensive fossil fuels.”

The risk of “grey imports”

Analysis from DiXi Group, shared with Mahabahu, caution that ending Russian energy flows is as much a technical as a political task. According to DiXi Group’s Energy Sanctions Monitoring Report, loopholes in LNG trading and the use of intermediaries still allow Moscow to earn billions in indirect revenue through European buyers.

Without synchronized infrastructure investment – LNG terminals, interconnectors, storage capacity – and strong enforcement, the risk of “grey imports” remains.

A coordinated wave of new restrictions was introduced over the past months by the EU, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine. These measures targeted Russian energy companies, vessels belonging to the so-called “shadow fleet,” and exports of sensitive technology used in oil and gas production.

At the same time, the report notes that a shift in U.S. policy has led to a loosening of enforcement mechanisms. As Washington scaled back part of its sanctions monitoring, more sanctioned tankers have returned to active service after months of idling. This easing has partially offset earlier pressure on the Russian export system.

Oil deliveries to India and China, which had sharply declined following the strong U.S. sanctions imposed in January 2025, have since recovered to near-previous levels. Meanwhile, Russia is seeking to expand the geography of its LNG and crude oil exports through new cooperation with Indonesia and Mexico. Yet these efforts face growing challenges – including market competition and the domestic-consumption priorities of potential partner countries, which limit the reliability of such diversification.

Cover photo: rusi.org

Olha Konsevych: Journalist, researcher | Vital Voices | GMF | WZB Berlin | Max Planck Society alumna || Mahabahu Correspondent

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