The war is not over, but has entered a "probation break" until further war notice!

The war is not over, but has entered a “probation break” until further war notice!

IRAN-ISRAEL WAR

RUBA AYYASH

The curtain suddenly came down, and each side returned to its life, after 12 days of fear, intimidation, preparedness, and an arms race… Then everything stopped.

But has it really stopped? I do not think so.

The war is not over, it seems to have entered a period of observation break. A tactical pause, a calculated calm, a break used to reposition, to inventory accounts, and perhaps also to reconstruct understandings that have not yet matured.

Perhaps, in closed rooms, the agreed form of the world has not yet been determined. Perhaps these rooms are still oscillating, differing on the nature of the events to be produced, as if the adults themselves do not have a unified conception of the end of the scene.

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Israel, which is preoccupied with its wars on several fronts, may not be suitable for it to fight a long war with Iran, which may drain it internally and externally. It is not in an internal political situation that would allow for an open, unresolved war.

Iran, on the other hand, took advantage of the “agreed strike” to appear strong, without involving itself further in an adventure that could threaten the entire regime.

In contrast, the United States under Trump does not see the continuation of the war as serving its interests; Trump presented himself as a “man of peace” and came to end the wars started by his predecessor Joe Biden, not to reignite them. He promotes himself as the one who restores “stability, growth and economic development,” not as the one dragging the world into additional disasters.

A long war in the region will show him as disloyal to his allies there, weaken his image as a man of deals rather than a man of conflict, and undermine the narrative on which he built his entire political campaign. Therefore, appeasement was part of a deliberate strategy, even if it seemed indiscriminate or abrupt.

As for the Iranian regime? He didn’t fall. Why? Maybe because there is no ready alternative. The opposition is divided, and does not appear to be strong or united. The alternatives are unclear, and a sudden change could open the doors of massive chaos that no one knows how to close.

Iran is not a small country; it has nationalities, sects, widespread weapons, and a violent security system. The sudden fall of the regime could mean Syria multiplied by ten.

Perhaps because Iran’s allies, from Russia to China, do not want to see an alternative regime that brings Tehran closer to the West. The region also does not want to see chaos after the fall of Iran’s regime. Because the West has not yet agreed on what it originally wants from “the next Iran,” it may see it as more beneficial to drain Iran and trim its proxies than its total collapse.

So, we go back to thinking. The war is not over, but has entered a “probation break” until further war notice.

RUBA AYYASH: Multimedia Journalist @ Sky News Arabia ; Master’s in Journalism, Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates

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