Theme@ UKRAINE: Gloomy Date; Sun, June 26, 2022

UKRAINE

IRINA MIROCHNIK

Source: “Date: Sun, June 26, 2022

Ukrainian soldiers and pilots are not only protecting their homeland !

Theme: Gloomy

To: Gulag-no Official channel

https://t.me/NetGulagu/2874

Vladimir, good day!

The situation is going in an absolutely gloomy direction. Ukraine has already become a strategic defeat for Russia, and any potential tactical success will not change the situation.

This is understood both in the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense, and in our country, and, apparently, in the country’s leadership, but the conclusions are extremely negative: now the main unspoken goal of Russia is a large-scale geopolitical conflict (the same planned transfer of Iskanders to Belarus is a direct challenge). Will it be a classic world war, or will it be a different format – it’s not so important.

On the subject of Ukraine: even if one theoretically assumes military success in capturing most of this country, then it will take many months, at least 100,000 more dead and monstrous costs, and in return with a probability of 99.999% it will be possible to get a scorched field with an overwhelmingly protest population, with a historical penchant for partisanship and protest. Sanctions will only aggravate this situation, but there will be no economic bonuses even in theory. And this is despite the military success of Russia, which is still under a big question mark.

Theme @Ukraine : Gloomy Date: Sun, June 26, 2022

The existence of Russia in the “option until 24.02.22” is no longer possible in the current world order, and its forces are critically lacking to unleash several more fronts (even the small Baltic states are much more than Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, which fettered the lion’s share of Russia’s power resource).

At the very beginning of the war (well, or NVO – whichever is safer), I wrote to you that we are expecting a Chinese war for Taiwan by the fall. Several months have passed – circumstances only confirm this forecast.

The worst thing about the current situation is that calling for peace today is the best way to drag the world into a big war. One of the factors that our leadership clings to is that the world is not ready to raise the stakes to the maximum and will accept the imposed conditions. In general, I cannot say that there is some logical error in this – for the “tyrant-victim” relationship, one tyrant is not enough, a victim is also needed. On the whole, the Western world copes well with this role.

Apparently, it would be more correct to list the entire set of installations that we now rely on:

– The world is not ready for the maximum increase in rates – with the demonstration of the reality of the nuclear threat (“Gordian knot” could have changed, but not canceled) and the promise “to perish the entire planet if Russia is defeated”, the world will come to a collective agreement on negotiations with the subsequent rewriting of the conditions and rules “from scratch”;

– Russia does not have time to play for a long time – the resource situation looks so critical that it is better to act too early than too late;

– In a global conflict, the old contradictions around the world will escalate everywhere and immediately so much that this is enough to destroy all the old balances;

– Modern war is not only a military invasion, but also a bet on regime change in unfriendly countries.

At the same time, today there is no way to return to peace without a global reformatting of the entire world situation – even if we assume that tomorrow morning Ukraine and Russia will sign peace on any terms, this will only mean the beginning of preparations for a new, much larger conflict. The Russian authorities have already taken that step, after which they can only have either a global victory (in world terms – it’s even ridiculous to talk about Ukraine here), or a global defeat. If global victory is not visible in the current variants of the conflict, then the variant must be changed, and the only way is to unwind the military spiral. Not enough of their military forces – you need to include other forces. It doesn’t matter how – to provoke, to take as allies, to go to them for secondary roles. All the talk (especially by Europeans) about peace between Russia and Ukraine is simply bringing a big war closer with them.

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The current system in Russia is aware that it has no chance, except for a big war, other options will not be considered, because the current system perceives the issue of its preservation as a matter of the country’s survival.

Now it is not so important that this is wrong, the important thing is that the subject of decision-making is monolithic in this sense.

“Russia” as a country does not decide anything – its management system decides, which in fact perceives this very “Russia” as a tool for its protection. Therefore, my unequivocal verdict, whether our country can come to a consensus with the Western world – no, it is impossible until there is a total change in the system of government. I don’t see how this can be done, because with any victory of one of the active forces inside Russia, nothing will change, and there are no other forces capable of such a breakdown today. Tsarist Russia collapsed under the onslaught of military fatigue, today’s Russia is going to initiate a world war of a new scale as soon as possible. You can use this part if you want, but all references to the fate of my analytics and assessments by its management will need to be removed.

I do not presume to predict when and what kind of military solution

It may sound that our unit has prepared more than 20 scenarios for the development of events: perhaps in a few hours (half an hour before dawn at the point of impact) a military strike will be launched on Lithuania. Perhaps the Europeans will be able to adjust to a compromise with Russia, and therefore the military solution will be delayed, but this will only increase its future inevitable scale – playing the role of a victim is guilty of creating a tyrant no less than the tyrant himself.

The situation is rapidly devolving into a global world conflict. The leadership of Russia does not rely on the army, navy, or even on nuclear missiles – first of all, it relies on confidence in the softness of the Western world and the hope that it is worth throwing a world spark to blaze fires. And I will say a thing that many people are not even able to accept: it is fundamentally wrong to say that it is “Russia is unleashing a new world war”, it is correct to say that “this Russian leadership provoked a situation that is leading to a new world war.” There are far more culprits here than you might think. Even in a simple victim-tyrant pair, not everything is so simple with the distribution of guilt, but in our performance there are much more participants.

Unfortunately, there is neither the strength nor the time to give a more substantive analysis. This time I had to simplify everything almost to the point of breaking the structure, but still I will try to give more specifics and interrelated aspects next time.

Sincerely,

all the best…

P.S. I saw that comrades from the FSO had also pulled themselves up, and realists and sources also appeared there. We already have a whole group working on you and the search for a leak from the Information Systems Directorate of the FSO, but they work without fanaticism, fearing to come out on themselves.

All employees at Vernadsky, 10 are not yet driven through the polygraph, they have not yet been reported in full even to the director of the service. This has never happened before at such a high level. No one understands, including myself, what array of data from the vernadka leaked to you.

But, of course, the Deputy Prime Minister reporting to Putin’s daughter and her girlfriends is strong. We will wait for publication. There have always been plenty of tyrants in power, tyrants – for more than 130 years at least. Although we already have a lot of materials on this and its environment, and not far off, after a go-ahead from above, everything will be used in order to debunk the cult of another “personality”.

The letter is from a source that the Western media refers to as Wind of change!

28-06-2022

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