Third Pole in Crisis Due To Snow Drought

CLIMATE CHANGE

RITURAJ PHUKAN

It has been a winter of reckoning for the Himalayan ranges. Snow cover across the lofty mountains fortuitously known as the “Third Pole” has become noticeably lighter, leaving many stretches bare and rocky.

The mountains also known as the “Water Towers of Asia” should be cloaked in winter snow, but they are not and meteorologists say that the pattern has shifted, defining a phenomenon that is now known as “snow drought.”

Over the last five winters, snowfall has dropped well below the long-term average records from 1980 to 2020. The impacts of global warming mean that the reduced amount of snow that does fall, melts quickly, while at the same time, some lower-lying areas are experiencing precipitation change with more rain and less snow.

The lack of winter precipitation is compounding an already urgent crisis. Glaciers in the Himalayas are melting at accelerated rates as the climate warms, and this situation is a growing concern for India’s Himalayan states and neighboring countries. When spring arrives, the snow that built up in winter melts and feeds river systems. This meltwater is a vital source for rivers and streams, supporting drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower.

A study published by IIT Jammu in 2025 shows that the Himalayan region is now increasingly seeing snow droughts between 3,000 and 6,000m elevations. Melting Himalayan glaciers pose long-term water scarcity risks, while reduced snowfall and faster snowmelt threaten near-term water supplies.

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Experts warn that vanishing glaciers and shrinking snowfall weaken the mountains because the ice and snow provide a kind of cement that helps maintain their stability. As a result, rockfalls, landslides, and glacial lake outbursts are becoming more common, along with debris flows. The drying pattern in the mountains and the surrounding lowlands also raises the risk of forest fires due to arid conditions.

The projections are that many parts of northwest India, including Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, as well as Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, will see rainfall and snowfall at only about 14 percent of their long-period average between January and March. The long-period average, or LPA, reflects what is typical over a 30- to 50-year period and helps classify current conditions as normal, excess, or deficient. North India’s LPA rainfall between 1971 and 2020 stood at 184.3 millimeters.

Meteorologists say this sharp drop in precipitation is not a one-time event. There is clear evidence across multiple datasets that winter precipitation in the Himalayas is diminishing. A 2025 study using four different datasets from 1980 to 2021 shows a decrease in precipitation in the western and parts of the central Himalayas.However, they also add that there have been heavy snowfalls during some winters in recent years, but these have been isolated, extreme events rather than the evenly distributed precipitation of past winters.

The official records reveal that snowfall in the northwestern Himalayas has fallen by about 25 percent in the past five years compared with the 1980–2020 long-term average. In Nepal too, researchers have observed a notable drop in winter precipitation, pointing to a trans Himalayanimpact.

Another way scientists assess the decrease in snowfall is by measuring how much snow is accumulated on the mountains, and how much of that remains for a period of time on the ground without melting, which is known known as snow-persistence. The 2024-2025 winter saw a 23-year record low of nearly 24% below normal snow persistence, according to a report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).It said four of the past five winters between 2020 and 2025 saw below-normal snow persistence in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region.

Many meteorologists point to weakening westerly disturbances as a key driver of reduced winter rainfall and snowfall in northern India, Pakistan, and Nepal. Historically, these low-pressure systems from the Mediterranean brought substantial rain and snow during winter, supporting crops and replenishing mountain snowpacks.

The Himalayan region faces a double challenge of rapid loss of glaciers and a reduction in snowfall. This combination promises far-reaching consequences for water resources, hazard risks, and the broader environment across the region. Reduced ice and snow will alter the landscape and impact on the lives of hundreds of millions of people and the region’s ecosystems. The “Snow Drought” is another unfolding crisis for the Third Pole region and will impact he lives of billions living in the “Himalayan Watershed” region.

RITURAJ PHUKAN : Founder, Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum; Co-Founder, Smily Academy ;National Coordinator for Biodiversity, The Climate Reality Project India; Member, IUCN Wilderness Specialist Group; Commission Member – IUCN WCPA Climate Change, IUCN WCPA Connectivity Conservation, IUCN WCPA Indigenous People and Protected Areas Specialist Groups, IUCN WCPA South Asia Region and IUCN WCPA-SSC Invasive Alien Species Task Force; Member, International Antarctic Expedition 2013; Climate Force Arctic 2019 ; Ambassador, Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary. Rituraj Phukan is the Climate Editor, Mahabahu and the  Convenor, Mahabahu Climate Forum.

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