Trump Tariffs: How Will Trump’s Tariff Threats Impact India-US Relations Amid Russian Oil Trade?

KAKALI DAS

Donald Trump has once again made strong statements against India. He first put a 25% tariff on Indian goods. Now, he says he will increase that tariff even more because India continues to buy oil from Russia.

In a social media post, Trump said that not only is India buying large amounts of Russian oil, but it is also selling it in the open market and making a profit.

He also said that India doesn’t care about how many people are being killed in Ukraine. Because of this, he says he will increase the 25% tariff on Indian goods in the next 24 hours. Trump also claimed that India is not being a good trade partner to the United States.

To understand this situation, we need to go back a bit. When Trump was running for president, he promised that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in just 24 hours. But after returning to office in January, he realized it wasn’t that simple. Russia is still attacking Ukrainian cities, Ukraine is losing land, and there are no peace talks happening.

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So Trump made his position stronger and asked for more sanctions. He also asked for secondary sanctions on countries that trade oil with Russia, especially India and China.

Despite these threats, nothing has changed. Russia continues its military actions, and the diplomatic situation remains stuck. Ukraine believes that sanctions have hurt Russia’s economy and wants the West to go even harder.

Ukrainian President VolodymyrZelensky has called for stronger actions against Russia’s energy and banking sectors. However, the Kremlin says the sanctions have had little to no effect. Trump himself admitted that Russia has found ways to avoid sanctions and called them clever for doing so.

Trump’s latest complaint is that India is buying too much Russian oil and helping Russia fund the war. He says India is buying cheap oil from Russia and then selling it to other countries at a higher price. Let’s look at the facts. Until February 2022, India barely bought any oil from Russia, only about 0.2% of its total imports. But things changed after the war began.

As Western countries stopped buying Russian oil, Russia needed new customers. Europe started buying oil from the Middle East, and that oil was no longer available to India. So India began buying more oil from Russia.

Today, about 35% to 40% of India’s oil comes from Russia. In July alone, 36% of India’s total oil imports came from Russia. India says it made this decision based on its need for energy and not to support Russia.

When questioned about this in 2022, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said that India’s monthly oil purchases from Russia were less than what Europe bought in a single afternoon. That is no longer true because India now imports a lot more, while Europe has reduced its imports.

India still insists that this is not a political decision. It needs cheap oil to keep prices low for its people. This is important because India has a population of 1.4 billion, and affordable fuel is needed for transportation, cooking, and many other daily activities.

Trump also accused India of buying weapons from Russia. But the facts show that India has actually reduced its dependence on Russian military equipment. In 2009, around 76% of India’s weapons came from Russia. But by 2024, that number has dropped to 36%. India is now doing more business with the United States and France and is also building more of its own weapons.

Since 2018, India has signed $20 billion worth of defence deals with American companies for things like drones and aircraft. So saying that India is still heavily buying Russian weapons is not accurate.

Now let’s look at trade between India and the United States. In the year 2024 – 2025, the two countries traded about $186 billion worth of goods. Out of this, India exported $86 billion and imported $45 billion from the US. This means there’s a trade gap of $44 billion, which makes the US unhappy.

The 25% duty Trump imposed affects things like textiles, gems, and auto parts from India. Luckily, Indian farm products have been left out. These new tariffs are coming even as India and the US are still talking about a trade deal.

India’s biggest export to the US is pharmaceuticals, about $8 billion worth, and this is not affected by the tariffs. Other key exports include telecom equipment, gems and jewellery, petroleum products, auto parts, steel products, and garments. These are the sectors that are now facing the heat.

A top White House official, Stephen Miller, who is very close to Trump, gave an interview to Fox News. He said it is not acceptable for India to keep helping Russia by buying oil. He added that people would be shocked to know that India and China are now the top buyers of Russian oil. He also accused India of being unfair in trade, putting high tariffs on American goods, and even cheating in immigration.

These are serious claims, especially since Miller is close to Trump and his views are likely to influence future policy.

There is also a new immigration policy being tested by the US called the Visa Bond Scheme. Under this scheme, some foreigners may have to deposit a $15,000 bond when applying for a US tourist or business visa. This is to prevent people from overstaying their visas. The scheme will be tested from August this year till August next year.

Although the countries affected have not yet been named, if Trump continues to target India, this scheme could impact Indian travellers. This could hurt tourism, business trips, and even families who travel back and forth between India and the US. Many Indian families have relatives in the US and travel often, so this would be a big problem.

For the first time, India has responded strongly. India’s External Affairs Ministry said that Europe’s trade with Russia is much larger than India’s. Europe traded goods worth €67.5 billion and services worth €17 billion with Russia. That’s far more than India’s trade with Russia.

So, according to India, the West is being unfair by pointing fingers at India while doing much more trade with Russia themselves. The Ministry also repeated that India buys oil from Russia because it is necessary for its people’s energy needs and that it will do whatever is needed to protect its national interest.

India’s main point is that it is being unfairly targeted. While the West keeps trading with Russia in different ways, they are blaming India for doing something they themselves are doing too. Trump is using trade tariffs as a political tool to pressure countries like India and China to stop doing business with Russia. He wants to use this pressure to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire. But India is not backing down. It says energy security comes first.

What happens next depends on how Russia reacts to Trump’s new deadline. Trump has said he will raise tariffs if Russia doesn’t change its behaviour, and that deadline is approaching soon. So, in the next few weeks, we will see what Russia decides to do and what that means for India and the US.

These actions could change the relationship between India and the US. They might also change how global trade and diplomacy work. Since Trump became president again, he has changed how countries talk to each other and how deals are made. The coming weeks will be important in deciding where this all goes.

Right now, Indian businesses are feeling the pressure. Many exporters, especially in the garment and jewellery sectors, are already being asked by their American buyers to cover the cost of the new tariffs. This means Indian exporters are making less profit. These industries are important for India because they employ a lot of people, especially in labour-intensive jobs. So any hit to these businesses could also affect jobs and livelihoods in India.

In the end, Trump’s actions are affecting trade, politics, and diplomacy. India is trying to stand firm and protect its own interests, while the US is trying to put more pressure on countries trading with Russia.

What happens next will depend on many moving parts, including how Russia responds, how India handles the pressure, and how the US decides to act in the coming weeks. All of this will shape not just India-US ties, but global relationships too.

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