UKRAINE: Putin‘s mistake

IRINA MIROCHNIK

The word “defeat” began to flicker in the lexicon of the Kremlin elite.

Let now it sounds in the context of Medvedev‘s rabid attacks, raving about the practical implementation of the threat of nuclear escalation.

But on the face of the symptoms of some hidden tectonic shifts in the minds of the ruling clique.

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How can anyone be inspired by an aggressive battle, the goals of which for a whole year have not been able to understand even in the closest retinue?

And the secretive suspicious and arrogant demiurge of war himself ceased to satisfy the demands of the vertical of decision-makers.

If the deep people can still be fed conspiracy theories and myths about “everything goes according to plan“, then the elite takes root in the idea of breaking all more or less optimistic scenarios.

Extreme shadow businessmen are preparing to make a dubiously legitimate president.

Now “zeroing 2020” is interpreted as a trap for the usurper, a legal basis to sew on him Article 278 of the Criminal Code on the forcible seizure of power.

The leader has existed for many years in a mode of isolation from objective reality and is immersed in a warm bath of filtered analytics.

Strikingly, Putin himself is the number one target for manipulation by the local intelligence community.

He literally bursts with disinformation, and to some extent is really dead, because he has already lost his cognitive abilities and has become inadequate.

The return of the disrespectful and mediocre Gerasimov to the management of “SVO” is an unnatural decision from the sphere of insanity.

It points to the real risk of using the most terrible forms of warfare.

From millions of infantry battles in the Ukrainian steppes to the use of prohibited weapons, including the nuclear arsenal.

At the same time, the existing version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine does not even allow one to think about it in relation to the invasion of the territory of Ukraine.

In addition, there are many historical examples of the loss of nuclear powers.

The US left Vietnam, the USSR failed in Afghanistan, China lost to Vietnam in 1979, nuclear India and Pakistan are conventionally fighting in Kashmir, and so on.

Nowhere did it reach nuclear wastelands, although it is difficult to call many “Chinese immortals” or the late Brezhnev completely sane.

There is no existential threat to Russia, especially the deployment of the Pantsir S1 air defense missile system on the Ministry of Defense building in Moscow, and the S-400 air defense system on Losiny Ostrov demonstrates the strengthening of air defense to the teeth.

So even attacks by Ukrainian UAVs seem to be not a special reason to rattle a nuclear cudgel.

And the seizure of Crimea and other temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine is Putin’s biggest mistake.

The sooner it is corrected, the better and cheaper it will be for the country.

Is it worth focusing on small areas of the territory, when the system of governance of the country is collapsing, resource wealth is going away for nothing to ungrateful Asians, and international isolation is getting worse every day?

What can we hope for, even if leaders from the list of “friendly” countries send signals to Moscow to stop before things get really bad.

Serbian President Vučić said that he did not support the Russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine, and considered all the occupied territories to be Ukrainian.

Belgrade is preparing to provide humanitarian aid to Kyiv.

Iran also emphatically distanced itself from the idea of revising the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, opposed the war and the mass forced resettlement of people.

China, in turn, is pleased with the landslide weakening of Russia and is showing interest in the Ukrainian formula for peace.

Moods are ripening in Georgia and Moldova to implement the Azerbaijani scenario for the liquidation of separatist formations. They understand that the Russian Federation does not have a military resource for any encroachments in order to protect its puppets.

In addition, new packages of military assistance to Ukraine are superimposed on the lack of clear motives for those mobilized from the reserve army to go to certain death and die for someone else’s mistake.

The situation on the Ukrainian chessboard is reminiscent of mate in Putin’s multi-move.

[Writer Irina Mirochnik is the President at IMMER Group & Doctor of Philosophy in Law(PhD); Images from different sources]

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