Rahul Gandhi has asked for an investigation into the connection between the BJP, the alleged “fake polls,” and foreign investors. Is there really a need for such an investigation?
In the four major polls conducted by CVoter, Today’s Chanakya, CNX, and ETG, all projected over 400 votes for the BJP, suggesting it would exceed its previous record of 303 seats and perform exceptionally well in this election. Additionally, they indicated that the INDIA bloc would not secure more than 150 or 160 votes.
To claim that the polls were off the mark is a significant understatement. These polls were grossly inaccurate on multiple fronts—they were directionally incorrect, flawed in their numerical projections, and even their data collection was questionable.
The question remains —how were they all similarly wrong at the same time and in the same direction?
As per the results, the NDA secured 293 seats, with the BJP alone obtaining 240 seats, while the INDIA bloc garnered 232 seats.
On results day, as the pollsters appeared on television channels and acknowledged that the exit poll agencies got it wrong, they remarked that such errors occasionally happen. However, the pressing question remains: How did all of you get it wrong in the same way at the same time?
Let’s understand how exit polls work. In theory, exit polls are straightforward: voters are approached by pollsters as they exit the polling booth and are asked whom they voted for.
Top pollster Sanjay Kumar explains to The Hindu that exit polls are conducted in this manner for two reasons, based on two theories. Firstly, people are believed to be more inclined to tell the truth as they exit the booth, with their memories fresh about their voting choices.
Rahul Verma, a fellow at the Center for Policy Research (CPR) at Ashoka University, explained that surveys should randomly select respondents, but the sample size must be large enough to represent the population. This means ensuring that enough people are surveyed to accurately represent the entire population of the constituency.
One theory being proposed is that people may have deliberately lied or withheld information, possibly out of fear of those in power, resulting in them not disclosing their true voting preferences during the exit polls.
But, could this scenario have consistently unfolded across the entire country, spanning all polls, constituencies, and voting booths? That raises significant doubts.
If we examine the limited data available to us regarding these exit polls, it’s clear that there’s insufficient information about their sample sizes, confidence levels, and margins of error. In some instances, the sample sizes are around 1 lakh people, which pales in comparison to the 100 crore individuals who voted in the election. This doesn’t seem adequate for accurate extrapolation of exit poll results.
However, it’s worth noting that exit polls have been inaccurate not only in India but also globally in the past. For instance, in 2021, exit polls in West Bengal predicted a loss for the TMC to the BJP, but Mamata Banerjee emerged victorious. Similarly, in 2020 in Bihar, predictions suggested a defeat for the JDU-BJP NDA alliance, yet they won. Additionally, in 2004, despite exit polls indicating otherwise, Atal Bihar Vajpayee experienced defeat in the election.
So, what sets this particular exit poll apart? It’s the impact it had on the stock market. Consider this: the exit polls were released on Saturday night, followed by a holiday on Sunday. When the stock market opened on Monday morning, it experienced a frenzy—registering its highest single-day surge in three years, with the Sensex and Nifty climbing nearly 3.3% and closing at record highs. This resulted in a staggering 14.13 lakh crore Indian Rupees being generated in the stock market.
Gautam Adani’s company shares soared to lifetime highs, surging by 18.5%. Similarly, Mukesh Ambani’s shares rose by 5.6%, mirroring the overall market trend.
The following day, when the humbling election results were unveiled, the stock market experienced a severe bloodbath, plummeting to its lowest point in four years. It was a devastating blow. The Sensex and the Nifty plunged approximately 8.5% during the day, ultimately closing down by 5.9%. This translated to a staggering loss of 30 lakh crore rupees in the stock market. Adani stocks, in particular, witnessed a significant decline of 20% across the board. However, the market gradually stabilized, returning to its pre-exit poll levels.
Interestingly, on May 19th, during an interview with NDTV, the Prime Minister advised people to “wait and watch” for June 4th, suggesting that stock market activity would eventually subside. Additionally, on May 13th, the Home Minister hinted to NDTV that people should consider buying shares before June 4th, anticipating a surge.
Furthermore, during a conversation with CNBC TV18 on May 31st, the Finance Minister hinted that a BJP victory would signal stability, potentially fuelling a rise in the stock market.
There are some critical questions that need addressing. Firstly, who within the exit poll companies had access to the data of these exit polls? And were they possibly connected in any way to investors? Because as an investor, let’s say I have access to this insider information that the exit polls predict a significant victory, I could anticipate a surge in the stock market and strategically place my investments. On the contrary, if I also know that the exit polls are inaccurate and the market will likely crash the next day!
Remember, Insider Trading is prohibited in the stock market. If, for instance, you’re employed by a company and have access to non-public information about that company, using that information to profit in the stock market is unlawful. This practice is known as insider trading.
Questions
Firstly, who had prior knowledge of the exit polls before their official release? Who had access to that data, and were they connected to the stock market? Furthermore, does this scenario potentially qualify as insider trading?
Secondly, who sold stocks on Monday and profited from the market downturn? Who then repurchased those same stocks on Tuesday, thereby capitalizing on the movement of those stocks between Monday and Tuesday?
Finally, if the polls were indeed manipulated, who had access to that information, and where were the pollsters receiving their funding from? Did they have any ties to investors or political parties? Moreover, why haven’t they made these disclosures?
To Conclude – All of this information warrants thorough investigation and answers. SEBI needs to probe insider trading, identifying those who had access to the data, who potentially leaked it, and whether anyone exploited that data. This isn’t a daunting task; SEBI has successfully conducted such investigations in the past.
The Election Commission must initiate investigations into the pollsters themselves to determine how these errors occurred, pinpoint where they occurred, and identify if anyone had access to the data from those exit polls. Additionally, they need to scrutinize the potential connections that these exit pollsters may have to politicians, investors, and other relevant parties.
07-06-2024
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