What ‘natural’ calamities in 2026 indicate about Climate Change

What ‘natural’ calamities in 2026 indicate about Climate Change

Dr. Maryam Adli

The first half of 2026 saw record-breaking heatwaves throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and North America, as climate change, exacerbated by the use of fossil fuels, exposes countries to extreme weather occurrences. 

The heatwaves sparked massive wildfires across Western Europe, while smoke cloud from Canadian flames blanketed huge parts of the US northeast and Midwest. The prolonged dry season in Indonesia has resulted in the largest wildfires since the 2015 El Niño, while India is experiencing its weakest monsoon in two decades.

These heatwaves and so-called natural disasters are the types of repercussions that IPCC climate experts have warned us about for decades as a result of coal, oil, and gas use. Record-breaking temperatures, as well as new records for sea surface temperatures, are the terrible truth of climate change and the reason why we must shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Acting now is crucial, as the El Niño is expected to create a new record on top of the planet’s already rising temperatures. The upcoming’super’ El Niño is projected to intensify extreme weather occurrences as the global climate approaches the Paris Agreement’s objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

So, why has 2026 experienced so many wildfires and heatwaves?

Record heatwaves have created circumstances conducive to wildfires as our climate rapidly warms as a result of decades of fossil fuel pollution and forest devastation. 

Since the Paris Agreement was signed, the years 2015-2025 have been the warmest 11 years on record. Our climate is now more out of balance than at any other point in recorded history, and as greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb, the 1.5°C barrier becomes increasingly vulnerable.

The succession of extraordinary weather occurrences in 2026 follow the world’s joint warmest July on record, which tied with July 2024, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It extended a pattern in which the ten warmest Julys on record have all happened since 2016, with the last four years (2023-2026) claiming the top four slots.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported heatwaves, drought, fire, and floods in July and early August as a result of a combination of record land heat and record sea surface temperatures. By early August, the European Union’s wildfires were the fourth worst on record, caused by climate change-related circumstances.

While Southern Africa was hit by cyclones and widespread flooding from heavy rains at the start of the year, the World Meteorological Organization said Africa and Asia had its warmest July on record. Japan and South Korea, as well as other Asian, Middle Eastern, and Latin American nations, experienced extreme and record-breaking heat at the beginning of August. 

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, western Europe saw its hottest June-July period on record, with four heatwaves since May in a “exceptional run of extreme heat”. Europe is now the fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising more than twice as fast as the world average.

It is a trend that delivers the “hot and dry conditions that favor large, high-intensity wildfires” that not only cause damage and death, but also health concerns such as respiratory and cardiovascular sickness, hospital admissions, and premature mortality from smoke inhalation.

However, these extreme weather events can no longer be classified as ‘natural’ calamities. Extreme weather has become more frequent and catastrophic as a result of decades of fossil fuel pollution, and it is past time for governments around the world to hold these oil and gas profiteers accountable.

Extractive economic systems are also not natural, leaving some countries, communities, and groups of people especially vulnerable to such threats. The same powerful interests operating with impunity have stifled political will to bring large polluters accountable.

How are extreme weather occurrences like heatwaves related to fossil fuels?

These growing catastrophic heatwaves, storms, and wildfires are the result of government inertia, which allows fossil fuel firms and environmental destroyers to profit at the expense of humanity. This is why political leaders must step up and speed efforts to eliminate fossil fuels and forest devastation.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) discovered that human-caused atmospheric warming, caused primarily by current and historical emissions from industrialized countries and major corporations, is directly associated with extreme cold and heat events as well as large-scale heavy rainfall events.

Following a recent evaluation of advances in attributing severe weather occurrences to climate change over the previous decade, NASEM stated that these relationships have been established with high confidence, backed by physics knowledge, observation, and modeling.

Two recent fast attribution studies found that the European and North American heatwaves were nearly impossible to occur without climate change, which is driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere as a result of coal, oil, and gas combustion, as well as forest degradation.

According to a fast attribution research conducted by scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) to investigate the impact of climate change, a similar June heatwave in western Europe would have been around 3.5°C cooler if it occurred 50 years earlier.

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Scientists are already predicting that 2026 will be one of the warmest years on record, with 2027 perhaps exceeding this year’s level. 

Berkeley Earth predicts a 69 percent possibility of 2026 being a record hot year due to growing emissions and the El Niño dominating global climate patterns from August to October.

The UK Met Office predicts a “unprecedented” El Niño in 2026, which might be the biggest since the 19th century. According to the report, 2027 would most certainly supplant 2024 as the hottest year on record, with temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5°C.

El Niño circumstances may generate broad severe weather impacts, such as droughts in some areas and heavy storms and rains in others.

The Indian summer monsoon, for example, is already substantially below normal rainfall, and Central America, the West Pacific states, and tropical South America are all at risk of poor rainfall. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, El Niño circumstances can lead to lost crops, animal losses, increased household debt, and migration for food and water.

El Niño may cause violent storms and excessive rainfall in central Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea), southern South America, the US, and the Horn of Africa.

How is Europe’s heatwave impacting river water levels and nuclear energy systems?

In August, water levels hit record lows in four of Europe’s major rivers: the Loire, Po, Rhine, and Danube. The protracted dry spell is putting further strain on water supplies, agriculture, energy systems, river transportation, tourism, and ecosystems.

Water shortages have a significant impact on nuclear energy installations, which rely on piped river water for cooling.

Water shortages have a significant impact on nuclear energy installations, which rely on piped river water for cooling. Pumping mechanisms for nuclear power stations along the Danube have been unable to access the water due to low water levels.

As a result, Romania shut down its nuclear power station, Cernavodã, which generates approximately 20% of Romania’s electricity. Hungary avoided a complete shutdown of its Paks nuclear facility, but had to reduce output to 10% due to the closure of three of its four reactors. The plant typically generates over half of Hungary’s power.

This demonstrates the inherent susceptibility of nuclear power plants to water shortages and drought, as a total and long-term loss of water cooling would pose a significant safety risk. It’s just another reason why we need a renewable energy system rather than one dependent on nuclear or fossil fuels, as well as another warning of the far-reaching consequences of catastrophic weather.

The atmospheric CO2 is at a record high as fossil fuel emissions continue to increase

CO2 emissions are alarmingly high and increasing. Governments must move quickly to bring them down. The International Energy Agency reported that increase in energy-related CO2 emissions decreased in 2025, growing by 0.4 percent, the weakest pace since 2021. However, CO2 emissions reached a record high of roughly 38.4 billion tons (Gt), 5% more than in 2019.

While this is certainly not good news, the use of renewable energy is decreasing the increase in emissions. The increase of solar power had the greatest impact on decreasing emissions rise last year, saving 1.5 Gt of yearly CO2 emissions (equivalent to half of India’s annual CO2 emissions in 2025, for example). 

Despite this, record atmospheric CO2 levels of around 427 parts per million were reported in 2024, which is over 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.

These levels continued to rise in 2026, reaching a monthly average record high of 432.3 parts per million in May at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory, which has the longest record of direct CO2 observations in the atmosphere.

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How far are we from exceeding the 1.5°C limit?

Exceeding the 1.5°C global warming limit increases the possibility of irreversible climatic tipping points and significant environmental harm. The continuous pattern of record hot years demonstrates how the aim of reducing global warming to 1.5°C is becoming increasingly difficult to attain. However, this fact must serve as a rallying cry for all nations to significantly increase their climate ambition, particularly wealthy countries, who have a historical obligation to act first and fastest.

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global temperatures would most certainly exceed 1.5°C for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also stated that it’s probable the 2026-2030 five-year average would surpass. It also stated that the five-year average temperature between 2026 and 2030 is projected to surpass 1.5°C, increasing the probability of more extreme weather occurrences.

This suggests that it is time for political leadership! Governments must now respond, and as critical moments and deadlines approach, international leaders must accelerate the fair transition away from fossil fuels with the pace and dedication required to meet the challenge.

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What can governments do to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

Governments can and must accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to decentralized renewable energy systems fueled by low-cost, dependable, and abundant energy sources such as wind and solar. The good news is that the transition to renewables is already accelerating. According to a Greenpeace International analysis, the rate of development over the last decade has provided enormous optimism for a sustainable future, thanks in major part to huge cost reductions in solar, wind power, and battery storage technologies.

At the inaugural conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, over 60 countries pledged to collaborate and promote the development of national and regional roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels. This ‘coalition of doers’ must now spearhead ambitious domestic action while also driving actual progress in a volatile global environment.

A fair transition ensures that all communities benefit from renewable energy and that no one is disadvantaged as a result of the change. This includes providing enough and accessible funding, consulting with communities and enabling them to define their own energy futures, and minimizing harmful consequences on vulnerable groups, such as mining for essential minerals.

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Governments must demonstrate their intention to speed a fair transition as they approach the UN General Assembly in September and the UN Climate Conference COP31 in November. That includes ensuring that COP31 objectives targeted at raising electricity’s share of total global energy demand become a roadmap to ending fossil fuel reliance.

The answers are available, and domestic renewables are already winning: solar, wind, and battery storage provide affordable, dependable, 24/7 electricity now. We can achieve genuine climate safety and stability by aggressively resetting the energy landscape with affordable and dependable renewable energy sources.

Policy Brief: A Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
Analysis: The Energy Revolution+10.

Dr. Maryam Adli is the correspondent of Mahabahu and Mahabahu Mirror in Baku, Azerbaijan.

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