When El Niño Meets a Thirsty World

A strengthening El Niño is putting water, agriculture and food security under renewed pressure. In a warming world already struggling with groundwater depletion, ecosystem degradation and increasingly erratic weather, the coming months will test how well societies can manage water before a climate shock becomes a humanitarian crisis.

PAHARI BARUAH

El Niño begins thousands of kilometres away from South Asia, in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but its consequences can travel across continents. A sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific alters atmospheric circulation and changes rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the ocean where the phenomenon originates.

The World Meteorological Organization says the 2026 El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to strengthen substantially in the coming months, with a very high likelihood that it will persist into early 2027. For a world already experiencing record heat, glacier loss, water stress and increasingly costly climate disasters, the significance of the event lies not simply in what happens in the Pacific, but in how vulnerable societies respond to the changes that follow.

El Niño is often described as a climate event, but that description can make it sound more distant and less consequential than it really is. In parts of South Asia, Africa and Australia, it can contribute to reduced rainfall and drought, while in parts of South America it can bring unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. These are not merely meteorological inconveniences. A failed rainy season can become a failed harvest, a failed harvest can become a food-price shock, and a prolonged drought can push farmers towards excessive groundwater extraction. In the opposite direction, intense rainfall can overwhelm rivers, drainage systems, irrigation networks and cities within hours.

The most important feature of El Niño, therefore, is not that it produces one particular kind of weather. It is that it rearranges the probabilities of extreme weather across a connected planet. The World Meteorological Organization has repeatedly stressed that El Niño and La Niña are among the most important drivers of year-to-year climate variability, but their effects differ substantially according to geography and season. That complexity becomes even more important as global warming changes the background conditions against which these natural climate fluctuations occur.

A warmer planet changes the consequences

El Niño is a natural component of the climate system and existed long before modern global warming. Climate change should not therefore be confused with the cause of El Niño itself. What is changing is the environment in which El Niño operates. A warmer atmosphere and ocean can alter the intensity of heat, evaporation and rainfall associated with climate extremes, while societies exposed to those extremes are often carrying vulnerabilities that did not exist at the same scale several decades ago.

The 2015-16 El Niño offered a powerful indication of what such a compound crisis can look like. It coincided with one of the warmest periods in the instrumental record and contributed to drought, flooding, food insecurity, disease and displacement across several regions. The World Health Organization estimated that more than 60 million people were affected by the broader impacts of that El Niño episode. The lesson was not simply that a powerful El Niño can produce severe weather. It was that climatic shocks can move rapidly through food systems, public health, livelihoods and economies, creating consequences that continue long after the Pacific begins returning to normal.

This persistence is becoming increasingly important. A climate event may last months, but its social consequences can last years. A farmer who loses a harvest may borrow money to survive, sell livestock or reduce spending on education. A government facing a food shortage may have to increase imports. A city affected by flooding may spend years rebuilding infrastructure. These effects accumulate, particularly in places where households and governments already have limited financial reserves.

Recent research provides evidence of how such consequences can extend beyond the immediate climate event. A 2026 study published in Communications Earth & Environment examined the economic consequences of ENSO events for China’s agriculture and found that the 2015-16 El Niño was associated with substantial agricultural losses. The precise scale and nature of the impact varies from country to country, but the broader message is clear: climate variability can leave an economic footprint long after the atmospheric signal has weakened.

The hidden crisis beneath the drought

The emerging discussion around El Niño is increasingly inseparable from another global problem: the depletion of water reserves. The term “water bankruptcy” has been used to describe a situation in which societies consume groundwater, rivers and ecological reserves faster than those systems can recover, leaving very little capacity to absorb another climatic shock.

The expression is not a formal scientific classification, but it captures a growing concern among water researchers. A community may survive one dry year by drawing more heavily on groundwater, using reservoirs or importing food. It may survive another year through emergency measures. But when drought becomes recurrent and groundwater extraction continues to exceed natural recharge, the safety margin gradually disappears. At that point, the next drought does not arrive in an empty landscape. It arrives in a water system that has already been weakened.

The World Meteorological Organization’s State of Global Water Resources 2024 illustrates the scale of this concern. The report found that only about one-third of the world’s river basins had normal conditions during 2024, while glacier regions continued to experience widespread losses. WMO has called for stronger monitoring, better data sharing and more integrated approaches to managing water resources. Such recommendations may sound technical, but their implications are profoundly human because water security determines the resilience of farms, cities, industries and ecosystems.

Groundwater is particularly vulnerable because its depletion is often invisible. A river that falls dramatically attracts immediate attention, whereas a declining aquifer can remain hidden beneath the surface while pumps continue to operate. Technological improvements can even delay recognition of the problem because deeper wells and more powerful pumps allow extraction to continue for some time. The danger becomes apparent only when the water table falls beyond economic or physical reach, or when the ecological systems dependent on groundwater begin to deteriorate.

This is where El Niño becomes a threat multiplier. It does not have to create a water crisis from nothing. It can intensify a crisis that has already been created by over-extraction, poor land management, inefficient irrigation, ecosystem degradation and inadequate planning. The climatic event becomes the trigger that exposes the weakness of the underlying system.

India cannot read El Niño as a simple drought forecast

For India, the relationship between El Niño and the summer monsoon is well established, but it is not deterministic. Historically, El Niño has often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, yet the actual outcome in any particular year depends on several interacting climate systems. The Indian Ocean Dipole, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, atmospheric circulation and other oceanic and atmospheric processes can modify the influence of ENSO.

This complexity is particularly important when climate information reaches farmers and the public. An El Niño forecast should not be translated into the simplistic message that India will necessarily experience drought. Nor should a national rainfall outlook be treated as an accurate prediction for every state or district. Climate operates through overlapping systems, and a country as geographically diverse as India can experience very different rainfall outcomes at the same time.

Recent research published in MAUSAM has reinforced this point by examining the interaction between ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in shaping Indian summer monsoon variability. The study demonstrates why seasonal climate forecasting increasingly needs to consider the combined behaviour of multiple climate drivers rather than relying on a single index.

That does not make El Niño less useful. It makes it more useful when understood correctly. It is an early warning signal, not a verdict. Governments can use that signal to prepare agricultural contingency plans, review reservoir operations, strengthen food stocks, improve water management and communicate risks before the consequences become severe.

Agriculture stands on the front line

Agriculture is where climate variability becomes particularly tangible because farming operates within narrow windows of rainfall, temperature and soil moisture. A delayed monsoon can alter planting decisions, while a prolonged dry spell can damage crops at critical stages of growth. Excessive rainfall can be equally destructive when crops are submerged or when harvests cannot be brought to market.

Research on recent El Niño years in India has found significant effects on monsoon rainfall and important kharif crops, including rice, maize, pearl millet and sorghum. Such research also points towards the practical value of seasonal climate information. If farmers and agricultural agencies receive reliable information sufficiently early, they can modify sowing dates, select appropriate crop varieties, adjust irrigation and prepare for possible livestock or fodder shortages.

The purpose of climate forecasting, therefore, should not be to create an illusion of certainty. Its real value lies in reducing the cost of uncertainty. A forecast that gives a farmer several weeks or months to make a better decision can be more valuable than an extraordinarily precise forecast delivered after the opportunity to act has disappeared.

This is also why adaptation cannot be treated as a secondary component of climate policy. Mitigation remains essential because reducing greenhouse gas emissions determines the long-term trajectory of global warming. But communities living with increasingly volatile rainfall cannot wait for global emissions to decline before protecting their water supplies, farms and infrastructure.

One ocean, different disasters

The geographical contrasts produced by El Niño reveal the complexity of the climate system. In parts of South America, El Niño can increase rainfall and flood risks even as other regions experience drought. During the 2023-24 event, the World Meteorological Organization documented severe drought across parts of Amazonia and the Pantanal, with rainfall in some areas substantially below normal. The Negro River at Manaus reached a record low, while unusually low water levels affected navigation through the Panama Canal. At the same time, parts of Ecuador and Peru experienced intense rainfall and flooding.

The apparent contradiction is actually the defining feature of ENSO. There is no single “El Niño weather”. There are different regional expressions of the same large-scale ocean-atmosphere disturbance. The same climate signal can therefore produce water scarcity in one country and destructive flooding in another.

This is why water policy must be locally grounded even when climate warnings are global. A national government cannot simply copy a drought strategy from another country because the physical, economic and institutional circumstances will be different. What can be shared are the principles: better observation, stronger early warnings, resilient infrastructure, efficient water use and the capacity to act before a crisis becomes irreversible.

The water-energy-food connection

Water cannot be separated from energy and food. Modern agriculture requires energy for pumping, irrigation, fertiliser production, processing and transportation. When rainfall declines, farmers often compensate by pumping more groundwater. Increased pumping increases energy demand, and higher energy costs can then feed into the price of food.

The cycle can become self-reinforcing. Water scarcity raises agricultural costs, agricultural losses affect food prices, and economic pressure encourages communities to extract even more from whatever water remains available. In regions dependent heavily on farming, a climatic shock can therefore become a livelihood crisis.

The same principle applies to cities. Water utilities need energy to pump, treat and distribute water. Industries require reliable water supplies for production. Electricity generation itself can depend on water availability. The three systems form what researchers increasingly describe as the water-energy-food nexus, in which stress in one sector can rapidly create pressure in the others.

El Niño exposes these connections because it can disturb several parts of the system simultaneously. The response therefore cannot remain confined to a single ministry or department. Agriculture, water resources, energy, health, disaster management and finance all have a role in reducing vulnerability.

From relief after disaster to preparation before it

The most important policy shift required in an era of increasingly complex climate risk is a movement from reaction towards preparation. Emergency relief remains essential when disasters strike, but relief begins after assets have already been lost. Adaptation seeks to reduce those losses before they occur.

Early-warning systems are among the most practical tools available. But a warning has little value if nobody knows what action should follow it. A drought forecast should trigger agricultural planning and water conservation. A heat warning should activate public-health measures. A flood forecast should enable reservoir coordination, evacuation and protection of critical infrastructure.

The World Meteorological Organization has repeatedly emphasised the importance of early-warning systems and climate services in reducing disaster risk. The challenge now is to connect increasingly sophisticated climate information with institutions capable of acting upon it.

Water infrastructure must undergo a similar transition. Irrigation systems that lose substantial quantities of water through leakage or inefficient application are increasingly difficult to sustain. Cities need to reduce distribution losses, improve wastewater management where appropriate and protect wetlands and watersheds. Agriculture needs to consider whether crops being cultivated in a particular landscape are compatible with the water that the landscape can reliably provide.

Most importantly, groundwater has to be treated as a strategic reserve rather than an unlimited emergency account.

Assam and the wider Northeast

For Assam and the Northeast, the implications require a careful reading of regional climate science. The region’s weather is influenced by the South Asian monsoon, the Bay of Bengal, the Eastern Himalaya and several interacting atmospheric systems. El Niño can influence the larger monsoon circulation, but it cannot by itself determine what will happen in Assam in a particular season.

That distinction matters because Assam already lives with an extraordinary combination of water extremes. During the monsoon, the Brahmaputra and its tributaries can produce devastating floods, erosion and displacement. At other times, communities face concerns related to dry-season water availability, groundwater, agricultural demand and urbanisation. The challenge is not simply too much water or too little water. It is increasingly the management of a highly variable water system.

The Brahmaputra basin also demonstrates why climate adaptation cannot be reduced to engineering alone. Embankments, drainage channels and flood-control structures remain important, but rivers are dynamic systems. Their channels migrate, sediment moves, wetlands expand and contract, and floodplains perform ecological functions that cannot always be replaced by concrete infrastructure.

For Assam, climate resilience therefore requires better knowledge of how rainfall, river discharge, groundwater, soil moisture, wetlands and land use interact. Data sharing between institutions becomes particularly important because water does not respect administrative boundaries. A rainfall event upstream can become a flood downstream; a change in land use can alter runoff; a damaged wetland can reduce natural water storage.

In such a landscape, information is not simply information. It is part of the infrastructure of resilience.

The climate signal travels far beyond the Pacific

The significance of the 2026 El Niño ultimately extends beyond rainfall statistics. The modern world is connected through food markets, energy systems, trade routes and financial networks. A drought in one agricultural region can influence commodity prices elsewhere. A flood can interrupt transport and supply chains. A prolonged water shortage can encourage migration or intensify competition between agricultural, industrial and urban users.

The World Meteorological Organization’s assessments of recent El Niño events have shown how drought, heat, floods, wildfires and water shortages can occur within the same global climate system. Their impacts extend into health, food security, energy production and economic development.

This is why climate risk is increasingly being understood as systemic risk. The question is no longer simply whether a drought will occur or whether a flood will happen. The more consequential question is whether institutions, economies and communities possess enough resilience to absorb the shock when it arrives.

The real lesson of El Niño

There is a natural temptation to treat the 2026 El Niño as an extraordinary event that will eventually pass. It will. El Niño will weaken, atmospheric conditions will change and another phase of the climate system will eventually emerge. The Pacific has always moved through these cycles.

What has changed is the world in which those cycles now operate.

The planet is considerably warmer than it was when many of today’s water-management systems were designed. Groundwater reserves in numerous regions are under pressure, glaciers are retreating, ecosystems are being degraded and agricultural systems are facing greater climatic uncertainty. Cities have expanded into flood-prone landscapes, while millions of people remain dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods.

The natural climate system has not suddenly become incomprehensible. Human vulnerability has become more complicated.

That distinction should determine the response.

The coming months provide governments with an opportunity to use El Niño as a planning signal rather than waiting for it to become a disaster. Agricultural agencies can prepare contingency plans. Water managers can review reservoirs and groundwater conditions. Cities can strengthen heat and water preparedness. Governments can protect vulnerable households and improve food-security mechanisms. Scientific institutions can expand climate services and make information more accessible to communities that need it most.

There is also a deeper question about the way societies understand water. For decades, development has often been built on the assumption that water can be extracted whenever demand rises. Wells can be deepened, rivers diverted, reservoirs expanded and irrigation intensified. That model becomes increasingly dangerous when climate variability is combined with declining ecological resilience.

El Niño is a reminder that water security is never entirely local. A disturbance in an ocean thousands of kilometres away can influence rainfall, agriculture, food prices and livelihoods on another continent. But the severity of the consequences is not determined by the Pacific alone. It depends on the condition of the societies receiving the climate signal.

A drought arriving in a healthy watershed with functioning institutions, efficient irrigation, protected groundwater and effective early-warning systems is one kind of event. The same drought arriving after decades of groundwater depletion, ecosystem degradation and poor planning is something altogether different.

The Pacific may provide the warning, but the consequences will be shaped much closer to home.

The real question facing governments in 2026 is therefore not simply how strong El Niño will become. It is whether the world has learned enough from previous events to prepare before the water runs out, the crops fail and the flood arrives.

That is ultimately the test of climate resilience: not whether societies can predict every extreme event, but whether they can reduce the damage when uncertainty becomes reality.

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References

World Meteorological Organization, “El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027,” 3 September 2026.
World Meteorological Organization, El Niño / La Niña Phenomena, overview of global teleconnections and climate impacts.
World Meteorological Organization, “Act now to limit health risks of El Niño,” September 2026.
World Meteorological Organization, State of Global Water Resources 2024, published September 2025.
World Health Organization, “El Niño affects more than 60 million people,” 26 April 2016.
World Meteorological Organization, State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2023, 2024.
India Meteorological Department, Assessment of the relationship between ENSO and the Indian Summer Monsoon, including discussion of the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole and other climate drivers.
Ratna, S.B. et al., “Multiscale ENSO-IOD-MJO Interactions Modulating Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability,” MAUSAM, 2026.
“Relevance of climatological information on spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in recent El Niño years and its impact on four important kharif crops over India,” Climate Services, 2023.
“Heterogeneous persistent ENSO impact on China’s agricultural economy in a warming climate,” Communications Earth & Environment, 2026.
India Meteorological Department, “Relationships between planetary-scale waves, Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO,” MAUSAM,
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