Why India doesn’t condemn the US aggression on Iran?

H. Srikanth

The developments in the Middle East started haunting India after Narendra Modi’s two-day visit to Israel, wherein the PM addressed Israel as fatherland; hugged Netanyahu, and accepted the highest Israeli civilian award with great pride. Not sure whether Modi had any hint of the US-Israeli attack on Iran two days after his return to India.

But India’s diplomatic silence over the brutal assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenie; and the government’s hesitation to express concern over inhuman bombing of the school that killed more than 160 innocent school children, put India in the dock. India may not be responsible for the American torpedo attack on the Iranian warship, Iris Dena, but not condemning the US again left a shadow of suspicion.

Modi was quick to criticize Iran’s attacks on the Gulf countries. But he said nothing about Israel’s attack on Chabahar, where India invested nearly $500 million for creating a corridor that seeks to connect India to Central Asia and Europe, via Afghanistan and Iran, bypassing Pakistan.

India remained silent for one week after outbreak of the war. India authorities started talking to the Iranian counterpart when it started feeling the pinch of the war after Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz and stopped the movement of all commercial ships. Any delay in the movement of the ships carrying oil and gas from the Gulf is likely to exacerbate the energy crisis in India.

The opposition parties in India took advantage of the government’s failures. The protests are likely to intensify as the public feels the scarcity of cooking gas and oil. Congress and other opposition parties assert that the problems could have been avoided had the Modi government remained neutral in the war, and condemned even the US and Israel for their immoral and illegal aggression against a sovereign nation. Several theories are floating in the public domain on the actions and inactions of the Indian government.

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Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition, thinks the Epstein Files and Adani’s legal troubles in the US are forcing the Modi government to not say anything unpleasant to America and Israel. One may not completely overlook personal interests, but what determines most in the making or unmaking of foreign policies is the national interest as perceived by the political and economic elite ruling the country. To know why India has meekly accepted the US directives not to purchase oil from Iran and Russia, and hesitates to condemn the US-Israeli aggression against Iran, one should understand the changing nature of India’s political economy.

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When India became politically independent, it chose the mixed economic model and developed the public sector alongside the private sector. The USSR helped India develop the public sector and helped it withstand imperialist pressures. Indian national leaders who had a first-hand experience of colonialism boldly stood against imperialism and supported anti-colonial movements. They dared to take a moral stand on the issues of war and peace. The non-alignment policy that it pursued enabled India to maintain a balance between the imperialist and the socialist powers. But that autonomy that India once exercised has now vanished with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The reassertion of market forces compelled India to adopt the policies of privatization, liberalization, and globalization. All restrictions on the entry of Indian and foreign monopolies were removed. Several public sector undertakings were dismantled or privatised. Giant MNCs found an easy way into the Indian markets and began collaborating with Indian monopolies. The IT sector developed rapidly in India, serving the interests of foreign clients. External markets and foreign investments became indispensable to the growth of the Indian economy.

As India turned to an export-led growth model, it encouraged earning revenue from the export of commodities and services. The growing unemployment and desire for a better life compelled millions of Indians to migrate to different countries. Taking advantage of liberalization, some Indian monopolies became multibillionaires and expanded their private empires in different countries and continents. These private monopolies can easily influence the government’s policies. No mainstream political parties can survive in India without financial support from the corporate sector. The growing clout of the likes of the Ambanis and the Adanis in Indian politics weakens India’s ability to fight imperialist forces.

Some startling facts about the Indian economy help us understand why India cannot dare to antagonize the US. The share of exports as a percentage of India’s GDP stands somewhere around 21% of GDP. The US is the largest market for Indian goods and services. India exports some $79 to 85 billion worth of goods and services to America every year, which accounts for 18% of its total exports. All Indian-based IT industries heavily depend on US clients. Fifty to sixty percent of the revenue of companies like Infosys and TCS comes from the US.

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There are over 5 million Indian citizens working in the US, and their remittances to India account for 27% of total remittances from Indian expatriates. Further, Indian business tycoons like the Ambanis and the Adanis have investments in the US and countries close to the US. They are all heavily dependent on the US financial system for loans, permissions and concessions. Any changes in tariffs and investment policies will affect Indian companies. This apart, India, which views China as its enemy and competitor, requires US support at the international level. All these factors compel India to bear with Trump’s tantrums.

Subsidized oil imports from Iran and Russia benefitted the Indian oil companies and helped India overcome the energy crisis. But only for that sake, India cannot antagonize the US and invite sanctions. Similarly, notwithstanding its Hindutva politics at home, the Modi government can’t ignore the Gulf countries on whom they depend for the import of oil and gas.

Apart from oil, the Gulf becomes important for India as several leading Indian companies such as L&T, TCS, Wipro, Infosys, Adani Ports, Indigo, etc., are engaged in business in the Gulf countries. They have invested millions of dollars in different businesses and infrastructure ventures. This apart, over 10 million Indian citizens are working in different Gulf countries.

The remittances from Indian expatriates in Gulf countries account for 40 percent of total remittances. The war near the Gulf is therefore not in the interest of the Indian economy. But India does not have the resources or credibility to influence the US and Iran to stop the ongoing war in the Middle-East.

Most citizens in India don’t support the imperialist aggression. The US threats dictating when India should stop war; what India should buy and from whom irritate patriotic Indians. They expect the Indian government to assert its national autonomy and not yield to US blackmail. They want India to be a Vishwaguru in a positive sense.

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However, the people’s aspirations have little influence on government policies. As the Indian economy finds itself so entangled with the US economy, the government cannot take an upright stand against US aggression against Iran and other developing countries. The private monopoly interests within India compel the Indian government not to do anything that affects their business interests.

The Indian government gives priority to the concerns of the business elite more than the views of its ordinary citizens. As its economy is intertwined with the global economy, the government considers protecting the interests of Indian businesses as more important than standing up against unjust wars. In the process, India ceases to be a moral force in international relations.

Prof. H. Srikanth, Department of Political Science, North-Eastern Hill University , hskant@gmail.com

This article published on Shillong Times too

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