Why India’s Monsoon in Trouble: 5 Major Factors Behind the Growing Rainfall Crisis

KAKALI DAS

For many years, whenever there was concern about the Indian monsoon, one name usually came up in discussions – El Nino. This natural climate phenomenon has long been known for weakening rainfall over India and creating challenges for agriculture, water resources, and the economy. However, the situation today appears to be far more complex. The Indian monsoon, often described as the lifeline of the country’s economy, is facing pressure not from one factor alone but from several factors acting together at the same time.

[Monsoon Illustration: A monsoon is a seasonal change in the strongest, or prevailing winds of a region. Southeast Asia experiences two monsoon seasons. The first, pictured in the large globe, brings moisture-filled clouds from the Indian Ocean. The second monsoon, pictured on the smaller globe to the right, brings cooler, dry air from eastern Asia and the Himalayan region. Image: https://education.nationalgeographic.org/]

The southwest monsoon is one of the most important weather systems for India. It provides nearly seventy percent of the country’s annual rainfall and supports agriculture, drinking water supplies, hydroelectric power generation, and countless livelihoods. Every year, millions of farmers eagerly wait for the arrival of the monsoon because the success of many crops depends on timely and adequate rainfall.

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This year, the southwest monsoon arrived in India on June. Initially, its progress appeared promising. There was an early burst of rainfall, and the monsoon advanced rapidly across several parts of the country. Weather experts expected that this momentum would continue and bring rain to large parts of central, western, and northern India. However, after the initial advance, the monsoon suddenly slowed down.

Instead of moving steadily across the country, the monsoon became stalled. Its progress stopped over large regions of central, western, and northern India. Areas that should have received rainfall by this time continued to remain dry. As days passed, rainfall deficits began to grow. States such as Maharashtra started experiencing significant shortages in rainfall. In some areas, the deficit reached alarming levels. The Vidarbha region reported rainfall shortages of more than fifty percent, while several other regions also faced serious deficits.

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The slowdown of the monsoon cannot be explained by El Nino alone. Scientists and meteorologists point out that several weather and climate factors are acting together, creating conditions that have prevented normal monsoon progress. Understanding these factors helps explain why rainfall has become delayed and why concerns are growing across the country.

One of the major reasons lies in the Pacific Ocean. Although the Indian monsoon develops over the Indian Ocean, weather systems in the Pacific Ocean can also influence it. During this period, a powerful typhoon formed near the Philippines. Typhoons are intense low pressure systems that attract surrounding winds and atmospheric energy.

To understand this connection, it is important to remember how the monsoon works. Winds move from regions of high pressure to regions of low pressure. The southwest monsoon reaches India because low pressure systems develop over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding seas, drawing moisture laden winds toward the country.

When the typhoon developed over the Pacific Ocean, it created a strong low pressure area. As a result, a large amount of atmospheric energy shifted eastward toward the typhoon instead of helping to create low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. This diversion weakened the processes that normally support monsoon advancement in India. In simple terms, part of the atmospheric energy that could have strengthened the Indian monsoon was drawn toward the Pacific typhoon instead.

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Another important factor has been the unusual behaviour of western disturbances. Western disturbances are weather systems that originate outside India and move eastward across northern parts of the country. They usually bring rainfall and snowfall to certain regions, especially during winter and spring.

This year, western disturbances moved farther south than usual. These systems brought dry north-westerly winds into parts of India. Dry winds reduce the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere. When moisture levels are low, cloud formation becomes difficult. Without sufficient cloud formation, rainfall activity decreases. Although some isolated showers occurred in certain regions because of western disturbances, these systems generally acted as a barrier to widespread monsoon rainfall.

[ Monsoon Drought: These banyan trees, in India, have been permanently bent by monsoon winds. The dry winds of southeast Asia’s winter monsoon often bringdrought.Image://education.nationalgeographic.org]

The Bay of Bengal has also played a significant role in the slowdown. The southwest monsoon has two main branches. One branch moves through the Arabian Sea, while the other moves through the Bay of Bengal. The Bay of Bengal branch is especially important for eastern, central, and northern India.

Normally, low pressure systems form over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon season. These systems strengthen winds, increase moisture accumulation, and help carry rainfall deep into the Indian mainland. This year, however, no major depression or strong low pressure system formed over the Bay of Bengal during a crucial period.

Because these systems were absent, moisture accumulation remained weak. The winds were not strong enough to transport large amounts of moisture inland. Instead of converging and creating favourable conditions for rainfall, the winds remained relatively weak and scattered. Consequently, many areas that depend heavily on the Bay of Bengal branch received far less rainfall than expected.

Beyond these immediate weather systems, larger climatic cycles have also contributed to the problem. One such factor is the Madden Julian Oscillation, often referred to as MJO.

The Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO) is a moving pattern of clouds, rainfall, winds, and atmospheric pressure that travels around the tropical regions near the equator. It takes approximately thirty to sixty days to complete one full cycle around the globe. Scientists often describe it as a giant moving pulse in the atmosphere.

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The MJO consists of two parts. One part is known as the wet phase, while the other is called the dry phase. The wet phase promotes cloud formation, rainfall, and storm activity. The dry phase suppresses cloud formation and encourages clear skies and reduced rainfall.

As the MJO travels around the world, different regions experience either the wet phase or the dry phase. Unfortunately for India, the dry phase of the MJO was positioned over the country during a crucial period in early June. This resulted in reduced atmospheric convection, fewer clouds, and weaker rainfall activity.

Convection is a process in which warm air rises, cools, and forms clouds. It is one of the key mechanisms that produce rainfall during the monsoon season. When convection is suppressed, cloud formation becomes limited, and rainfall decreases. Therefore, the presence of the dry phase of the MJO further weakened the monsoon.

The good news is that the MJO is constantly moving. As it shifts eastward and the wet phase approaches India, conditions may become more favorable for rainfall. However, its positive influence depends on how it interacts with other weather systems.

The final and perhaps most widely discussed factor is El Nino. El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. These warmer waters alter atmospheric circulation patterns across the globe.

For India, El Nino is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall. It tends to reduce the strength of monsoon winds and disrupt the circulation patterns that bring moisture to the country. El Nino is also linked to hotter summers and, in some cases, drought conditions.

Its opposite phase, known as La Nina, usually strengthens the Indian monsoon and often leads to better rainfall. During La Nina years, monsoon circulation becomes stronger, increasing the chances of widespread rainfall across the country.

This year, the developing El Nino has added another layer of concern. While it is not the sole reason behind the stalled monsoon, it has certainly contributed to the weakening of monsoon circulation.

When all these factors are combined, the result is a significant slowdown in monsoon progress. Moisture convergence has weakened. Storm systems have become less organized. Cloud formation has been suppressed. As a consequence, rainfall across large parts of India remains below normal.

The impacts of this situation are already becoming visible. Several regions are reporting severe rainfall deficits. Goa, which normally receives abundant rainfall due to its location along the Western Ghats, has recorded a substantial deficit. The Western Ghats are among the wettest regions in India, making such a shortfall particularly concerning.

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In Maharashtra, rainfall shortages have raised fears about water availability. Reports suggest that some reservoirs may have enough water for only a limited number of days if rainfall does not improve soon. Similar concerns are emerging in other regions where water storage levels are declining.

If the monsoon remains stalled for a prolonged period, the consequences could become much more serious. Agriculture is likely to face the first major impact. The sowing of kharif crops depends heavily on timely monsoon rainfall. Farmers usually begin planting crops such as paddy, soybean, cotton, and pulses once sufficient rain has softened the soil.

Delayed rainfall means delayed sowing. When crops are planted late, their growth cycle is affected. In many cases, yields become lower because the crops do not receive adequate moisture during critical stages of development.

A weak monsoon also increases the demand for irrigation. Farmers who have access to irrigation facilities may need to use more groundwater or rely on canals and reservoirs. This places additional pressure on already limited water resources.

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Groundwater depletion becomes another major concern. In many parts of India, groundwater is already being extracted faster than it can be replenished. Reduced rainfall means less water seeps into the ground, making the situation even worse.

The effects are not limited to agriculture. Reduced rainfall can affect hydroelectric power generation, drinking water supplies, industrial activity, and overall economic growth. Food prices may rise if crop production declines. Rural incomes may suffer, affecting millions of households.

Given these challenges, many people are asking whether the monsoon can recover. Meteorologists believe that a revival is still possible. Weather systems are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.

One possibility is the movement of the Madden Julian Oscillation into a favourable phase. If the wet phase approaches India, cloud formation and rainfall activity could increase. Another possibility is the development of stronger low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. Such systems could enhance moisture transport and help the monsoon advance once again.

Stronger low level jet streams could also improve rainfall. These fast moving winds transport large amounts of moisture from the oceans toward the Indian mainland. If they strengthen, rainfall activity may increase significantly.

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A reduction in the influence of unfavourable weather systems could further support monsoon recovery. Even a combination of two or three positive developments may be enough to restart monsoon progress across many parts of the country.

For now, however, the situation remains serious. The monsoon is facing challenges from multiple directions at the same time. The Pacific typhoon, unusual western disturbances, weak Bay of Bengal systems, the unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, and the developing El Nino have all combined to slow the progress of India’s most important weather system.

The coming weeks will be crucial. Farmers, policymakers, water managers, and ordinary citizens will all be watching the skies closely. The fate of crops, water supplies, and economic activities depends largely on how the monsoon behaves from this point onward. While there is still hope for recovery, the current situation is a proof of how interconnected and fragile weather systems can be and how deeply India’s future remains tied to the rhythm of the monsoon rains.

Reference:

India Meteorological Department (IMD). Southwest Monsoon Reports, Rainfall Statistics, and Monsoon Forecasts. Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India.
Carbon Brief. Climate Science, Extreme Weather, and Climate Change Analysis.
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. Research and publications on Indian monsoon dynamics, atmospheric circulation, ENSO, and climate variability.
Business Standard. Why Has Monsoon Progress Stalled Across Parts of India Despite Early Onset? (June 2026). An analysis of rainfall deficits, dry air intrusion, weak Somali Jet, El Niño, and the slowdown of monsoon advancement across India.

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