Why is India’s winter expected to be unusually colder this year?

Why is India’s winter expected to be unusually colder this year?

KAKALI DAS

Many experts have predicted that India might experience a much colder winter this year. A few months ago, similar predictions were made about the monsoon season.

It was said that India would witness heavier rainfall than usual, and that is exactly what happened. Regions like Punjab, Jammu, and Himachal Pradesh faced severe floods this year, floods that were unprecedented in scale and affected areas that had never been flooded before in the history of our country.

Because of this unusual monsoon pattern, the unusually heavy rainfall, and the early arrival of winter in northern India, there is growing curiosity and concern about the causes behind these climatic shifts. Meteorologists have been using the term “La Niña” to explain this pattern and to predict that India and several other parts of the world might see harsher and colder winters this year.

To understand La Niña, we first need to understand another related phenomenon called El Niño, and together these two form part of a larger climatic cycle known as ENSO, which stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation. Understanding ENSO and its effects gives us insight into how the world’s weather patterns are interconnected and why events in one part of the Pacific Ocean can have significant impacts on regions thousands of kilometers away, including India.

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Let us start with the basics. If we look at the world map and focus on the Pacific Ocean, we can divide it into two parts—the western Pacific and the eastern Pacific. On the western side lie the continents of Asia and Australia, and on the eastern side lie North and South America. The Pacific Ocean straddles the equator, which runs through the middle of the ocean. This region around the equator is called the equatorial Pacific region.

El Niño and La Niña are both results of temperature variations in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These changes in ocean temperature affect the air pressure and wind patterns across the globe, leading to significant changes in weather conditions. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the larger cycle called ENSO. ENSO represents the temperature fluctuations between the ocean and the atmosphere in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These fluctuations usually last from nine months to a year, though sometimes they may continue for a longer period.

Since La Niña is easier to understand once we know what El Niño is, let us begin with El Niño. The phenomenon was first recognized by Peruvian fishermen off the coast of South America. They noticed that, at certain intervals, the ocean water near the coast became unusually warm without any clear reason. Because this event usually happened around Christmas time, they named it “El Niño,” a Spanish term meaning “The Little Boy,” referring to the Christ Child. Initially, it was just observed as an occasional warming of the ocean surface, but later scientists realized that it had much broader climatic consequences.

El Niño is an irregular and intense climate phenomenon that involves the warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, near the coast of South America. This warming is not part of a regular cycle, and it occurs irregularly every two to seven years. Because of its irregular nature, predicting the timing and intensity of El Niño events is quite difficult.

When the surface water of the ocean becomes unusually warm, the air above it becomes lighter and a low-pressure area forms. This affects wind circulation and rainfall patterns. During an El Niño event, the warm ocean water in the eastern Pacific leads to heavy rainfall and even flooding in parts of South America, especially along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. The increased evaporation over the warm waters causes more clouds to form, resulting in intense rainfall, coastal flooding, and erosion.

These floods and warm, humid conditions also create favourable environments for diseases such as cholera, malaria, and dengue to spread. The marine life in the region is also affected because warmer water reduces the amount of oxygen in the ocean, which disrupts fish populations and harms the local fishing industry.

While the eastern Pacific faces heavy rains during El Niño, the opposite happens in the western Pacific, which includes countries like India, Indonesia, Australia, and parts of Africa. The warm air rising in the east creates a shift in air pressure that leads to drier conditions in the west. As a result, these regions often experience droughts during El Niño years. Historically, India’s worst droughts have been associated with El Niño events. For example, the severe droughts in 2002 and 2009 were linked to El Niño.

El Niño directly impacts India’s agriculture-dependent economy. Poor monsoon rains lead to crop failures, reduced agricultural output, and economic losses. These conditions can lead to inflation, job loss, and increased hardship, especially for farmers. Because of these effects, El Niño years are often remembered as difficult periods for India’s agrarian sector.

Now that we understand El Niño, we can move on to La Niña, which is its opposite phase. While El Niño involves the warming of the ocean surface, La Niña involves the cooling of the ocean surface in the same eastern Pacific region. The term “La Niña” means “The Little Girl” in Spanish. It is sometimes referred to as the “anti-El Niño” or a “cold event.”

During a La Niña event, the water temperature in the eastern Pacific becomes much cooler than normal. This cooling leads to the formation of a high-pressure area over the eastern Pacific. In contrast, the western Pacific, home to Asia and Australia, experiences a low-pressure area. Because air always moves from regions of high pressure to regions of low pressure, strong trade winds blow warm, moist air towards the western Pacific. This results in heavy rainfall and even flood-like situations in regions such as India, Indonesia, and Australia.

So, while El Niño brings floods to South America and droughts to Asia, La Niña reverses this pattern. During La Niña, South America experiences drier conditions and even droughts, while Asia, Australia, and parts of Africa receive more rainfall than usual. This explains why India and several parts of Asia often see a stronger monsoon season during La Niña years.

La Niña also tends to bring colder winters. The increased pressure differences and wind circulation patterns lead to more intense cold waves, especially in northern parts of India. This year, meteorologists have already confirmed the arrival of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and its effects are beginning to be felt across various regions. The early arrival of winter in parts of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu is being linked to this global phenomenon.

In La Niña years, the Indian subcontinent experiences heavier than normal rainfall during the monsoon season, followed by colder and longer winters. This pattern matches what India has seen this year – unusually high rainfall followed by an early and sharp drop in temperature.

In the eastern Pacific region, meanwhile, countries such as Peru and Ecuador face drought-like conditions during La Niña years. In contrast, countries in the western Pacific region, including India and Australia, face excessive rainfall and floods. For instance, during the La Niña year of 2010, Australia experienced one of its worst flood disasters. The Queensland region was hit badly, with more than 10,000 people forced to evacuate their homes and damages estimated at around two billion dollars.

These climatic shifts are not just random events; they show how interconnected our planet’s systems are. A temperature change in one part of the ocean can influence weather patterns across the world. That is why scientists closely monitor sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure changes in the Pacific Ocean to predict global weather trends.

In India, the impact of La Niña is felt most strongly in the northern and central regions, while its influence is generally less pronounced in the north-eastern states. Farmers may benefit from better monsoon rains, but at the same time, excessive rainfall can also lead to flooding and crop destruction in certain areas. Moreover, the cold waves that follow La Niña years can affect health, disrupt daily life, and increase energy consumption during the winter months.

Understanding these natural cycles helps us prepare better for their consequences. While we cannot prevent El Niño or La Niña, we can adapt to them by improving weather forecasting, strengthening infrastructure, and creating early warning systems for floods and droughts. It also highlights the importance of studying climate science, as these events can significantly affect agriculture, economy, health, and overall human well-being.

In summary, El Niño and La Niña are two sides of the same coin, forming part of the larger ENSO cycle. El Niño warms the eastern Pacific and usually brings drought to India, while La Niña cools the same region and brings heavy rain and colder winters to India and much of Asia. The severe floods in northern India this year and the early arrival of winter can both be traced back to the influence of La Niña.

As La Niña continues to develop, India may experience a colder and longer winter this year. The weather patterns we are witnessing are not isolated or random, they are part of a vast global system driven by the interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. By understanding these patterns, we can better prepare ourselves for the changing climate and respond wisely to its challenges.

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