Will Congress ever learn from its failures?

KAKALI DAS

Congress managed to bag power in the state of Himachal Pradesh, and AAP on MCD in Delhi.

Biggest talking point was BJP’s landslide victory in Gujarat.

Question isn’t how BJP won so big – question is, has opposition learnt a thing?

More elections are on the way in 2023 – Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, Telangana etc. If all goes well then election will also be held in J&K. BJP is already preparing – but is Congress and as a matter of fact entire population willing to learn from the losses? Because a democracy needs a strong govt. and strong opposition, which is nil in Gujarat for next 5 years.

Today, in Gujarat’s 182 seats, BJP’s tally is 156, INC’s 17 and AAP’s 5. Congress had 77 seats last time, now reduced to 17. BJP’s vote shares also increased. This was BJP’s most impressive win in Gujarat. On the other hand, Congress’ vote share dropped by 14% – AAP gained 12.9%. 74% candidates lost deposit – 42 of Congress, and AAP’s big plans thrashed. On many seats, AAP was poised at number 2 position.

Elections are over. Everyone knows the formula of winning – Modi+Media+Hindu-Muslim = Victory.

But despite anti-incumbency this is a massive win, so there is a lot to learn for the losing party.

Vote bank is not fixed deposit – This vote bank politics is being played for decades now. BJP managed to outsmart this. BJP has won 17 seats where Muslim popularity is high. BJP also won in Gujarat’s tribal belt – 23 seats of 27 (this was supposed to be Congress’s stronghold. AAP cut Congress’ votes is also a fact). Old vote banks – Muslim and tribal populace – did not favour Congress.
Micro Management – It is true that during elections many people are either too lazy to go vote or too confused to vote. BJP knows this and Panna Samiti and Panna Pramukh track voter – first implemented in 2014. 80 lakhs Panna Samiti members communicate over 5 crore voters. 10 members responsible for 60 voters. Think – for two years, these members are in touch with voters and they help voters get benefits of govt. policies and then ensure that their voter votes. After taking so many favours, voter will vote as encouraged. This kind of management was done by the left front and they were in power in Bengal for 3 decades. Congress has not mastered this system.
Electoral Maths – Politicians may not like to get into maths – but there is maths behind election victories. Even IIT engineers will be impressed with it. Under Madhav Singh Solanki, INC won 149 out of 182 seats in 1985. His formula was KHAM – Kshatriyas, Harijan, Adivashi and Muslim. They ignored Patidar, Baniya and Brahmin because KHAM was enough. On the other hand, BJP moved to other side in 1990 with formula POU – Patidar, OBC and Upper Caste. In 2022 election, T was added to POU – T for tribal. The result of this formula – out of 53 Patidar seats, BJP won 47, and Congress was left with 0.
Performance over loyalty – Our parents used to be loyal to a company and company also appreciated loyalty. These days the culture is of hire and fire. BJP has brought this to politics. No tickets to 42 sitting MLAs. Approved candidates were several Congress rebels. Perform or perish – Ideology and loyalty are side-lined. Ethical or not, this works. Will Congress ever adopt the same practice?
Damage Control – It’s better to solve a problem right away, to stop it from becoming a much bigger one. BJP has changed entire cabinet and even the chief minister 1 year before election. This strategy works – as people see how top command is pro-actively taking notice of performance. In Gujarat, party admin knew that mishandling amid pandemic had people irked. BJP removed CM Vijay Rupani – voter was impressed. Is there any other party that removes their own chief minister?
Winning after Losing – In 2017 election anybody could be the winner – in 30 seats, victory margin was less than 2.5% of BJP. This time BJP didn’t take any chance – there was planning of an excessive campaigning. As a result, BJP won where it was supposed to be INC’s stronghold. This didn’t happen overnight. Droupadi Murmu, tribal woman as President, PM’s visit to Mangarh Dham – place revered by tribals, inauguration of project to provide tap water in every home, inclusive of tribals in ‘upper caste’ party. This is how you can win elections.
Media and Polarisation – Calling Bilkis rapists sanskari, making people remember how BJP taught rioters lessen – this is old strategy of BJP – like BJP would make people remember jungle raj in Bihar – fear of ghazwa-e-hind through WhatsApp forwards. Now 80% of population need not have fear, but it helps get votes – through various forms of media fear and propaganda right by your side. Opposition has been unable to capitalise fear and to use social media as a tool. Doing this is key for opposition.
The Modi Factor – Godi media wants you to believe that one man was behind BJP’s win. There is a limit to a magic – however in Gujarat there is a special bond with Modi – people vote for BJP. In fact, Modi-ji conducted 36 rallies and Amit Shah’s management aided it. Congress leadership lacked presence – Rahul Gandhi conducted only 2 rallies. INC missed Ahmed Patel’s leadership, and INC admits their campaign was low key.

Will Congress ever learn from its failures?

Is BJP invincible? Gujarat is different – at one point in time Left front was in power for many decades in Bengal, but it ended. The day BJP won Gujarat it also lost Himachal Pradesh. We may give godi media and Modi too much credit while ignoring actual grass-root work. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP campaigned door to door, and then they won Delhi and Punjab. It took years.

Now, they pose Modi vs Kejriwal in 2024, but it is just a daydream – it takes decades. On the other side, once upon a time, Congress sacrificed a lot for country to be in power. Today opposition has to re-enter groundwork and make use of technology.

Our country is vast – it cannot be won solely on electoral bonds, media and ED. The road is tough for opposition – challenge is not to defeat BJP in 2024 – challenge is to establish a strong opposition in democratic system to raise people’s concerns.

No matter who wins opposition should be strong and that can happen when opposition admits to its failures and works on them. Opposition cannot use blame game on media and money every time.

[Images from different sources]

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