World War III: Could Water Be the Spark?

World War III: Could Water Be the Spark?

NILIM KASHYAP BARTHAKUR

Water, the essence of life, is increasingly becoming a source of geopolitical tension.

As populations grow, climates shift, and resources dwindle, competition over shared water bodies is intensifying. Transboundary rivers, critical for agriculture, hydropower, and human consumption, are at the heart of disputes that could escalate into broader conflicts.

From the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) tensions between India and Pakistan to China’s dam-building on the Brahmaputra, and water conflicts in other regions, the potential for water to ignite a global crisis, even a third world war, is a growing concern.

The India-Pakistan Indus Waters Treaty Crisis

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, has long governed the sharing of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. The treaty allocates the waters of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, providing a framework for cooperation despite decades of hostility, including three wars.

Pakistan, heavily dependent on the Indus for 80% of its irrigated agriculture, views the treaty as the backbone of its economy. However, recent developments have pushed this agreement to the brink.

On 22^nd April 2025, following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists, India suspended the IWT, citing national security concerns and alleging Pakistan’s support for cross-border terrorism. This marked the first time the treaty, hailed for its resilience, was disrupted. India’s decision allows it to withhold critical hydrological data, such as flood warnings, and pursue dam projects without consulting Pakistan.

For instance, India has begun boosting reservoir capacity at the Salal and Baglihar hydroelectric projects and lowered sluice gates at the Baglihar dam, reducing downstream flow to Pakistan by up to 90% on the Chenab River.

Pakistan has called this suspension an “act of war,” warning that any attempt to stop or divert water flows would prompt a forceful response. Experts note that India lacks the infrastructure to immediately halt water flows, as its dams on the western rivers are primarily run-of-the-river hydropower plants with limited storage capacity.

However, India could cause significant damage by flushing silt from reservoirs without warning, potentially harming Pakistan’s agriculture during the dry season (December to May), when water timing is critical. Pakistani farmers fear erratic flows could devastate crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane, threatening food security and economic stability.

The suspension also sets a dangerous precedent. Pakistan, with Chinese support, is accelerating dam projects like the Diamer-Bhasha and Dasu dams, raising concerns about seismic risks in the region. A dam break could cause catastrophic flooding in both Pakistan and India’s Kutch region. Moreover, India’s move could embolden other upstream nations, complicating its own position as a downstream state in other river basins.

China’s “Water Bomb”

The Brahmaputra River, originating in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo, flows through India and Bangladesh, sustaining millions of livelihoods. China, controlling the upstream portion, has no formal water-sharing treaty with its neighbors, raising fears of water weaponization. In 2020, China approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the “Great Bend Dam,” which could generate twice the power of the Three Gorges Dam.

This project, coupled with earlier dams like the Zangmu, has alarmed India and Bangladesh, who fear China could manipulate water flows to cause floods or droughts during political crises.

China contributes only about 7% to the Brahmaputra’s flow, but its ability to control the timing of releases is significant. For example, in 2016, after India threatened to suspend the IWT following a militant attack, China blocked a Brahmaputra tributary, citing a hydropower project.

The timing suggested a strategic move to support its ally, Pakistan. India, in response, announced a 10-gigawatt hydropower project in 2020 to counter China’s upstream control. The lack of hydrological data sharing, especially during the monsoon season (May to October), exacerbates tensions, as India relies on this data to predict floods.

Indian security analysts warn that China’s dams could be used as a “water bomb,” releasing water suddenly to flood downstream areas or withholding it to create shortages. The Brahmaputra basin, a biodiversity hotspot with species like the critically endangered Gangetic river dolphin, also faces ecological risks from silt accumulation and altered flows. The region’s seismic vulnerability adds another layer of concern, as earthquakes could trigger landslides or dam failures.

India’s suspension of the IWT could prompt China to escalate its Brahmaputra projects, as it faces no treaty obligations. Posts on X have highlighted this risk, noting that China’s upstream position gives it significant leverage over India, which relies on the Brahmaputra for 30% of its freshwater and 44% of its hydropower potential. This dynamic underscores how water disputes in one basin can ripple across regions, amplifying tensions among nuclear-armed states.

 The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and China’s Brahmaputra dam projects highlight how upstream control can destabilize entire regions. Combined with global disputes over rivers like the Nile and Mekong, these tensions underscore the risk of water sparking larger conflicts. While World War III may not be imminent, the weaponization of water is a ticking time bomb. Only through diplomacy, sustainable practices, and international cooperation can nations defuse this crisis and ensure water remains a source of life, not war.

The Global Water Crisis

The global water crisis is a complex, multifaceted challenge driven by climate change, overpopulation, and mismanagement. According to the United Nations, 2.2 billion people lack access to safely managed drinking water, and 4.2 billion face water scarcity at least one month per year. By 2030, global water demand is projected to exceed supply by 40%, with severe shortages expected in arid and semi-arid regions. Climate change exacerbates this, with melting glaciers, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures reducing freshwater availability.

Transboundary rivers, shared by 153 countries, are particularly contentious. Over 360 major river basins cross national borders, and many lack cooperative agreements, making them flashpoints for conflict.

Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the Blue Nile, threatens Egypt’s water security, as the Nile supplies 97% of Egypt’s water. Ethiopia, contributing 85% of the Nile’s flow, began filling the dam in 2020, prompting Egypt to threaten military action. Sudan, caught between the two, faces flood and drought risks. Negotiations remain deadlocked, with Egypt warning that reduced flows could devastate its agriculture-based economy.

China’s 11 upstream dams on the Mekong control flows critical to downstream fisheries and rice production, which sustain 60 million people. During droughts, China’s selective water releases have favored allies like Laos while leaving Vietnam and Cambodia vulnerable. In 2020, a U.S.-funded study found China withheld water during a severe drought, exacerbating downstream losses. The Mekong River Commission lacks enforcement power, leaving downstream nations with little recourse.

Turkey’s dams, like the Ilisu, have slashed water flows to Syria and Iraq by up to 50%, crippling agriculture and exacerbating droughts. Turkey’s control is seen as a political tool, particularly against Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq. Iraq’s marshlands, a UNESCO World Heritage site, are drying up, displacing communities and fueling unrest. No binding treaty governs the basin, leaving downstream nations dependent on Turkey’s goodwill.

The Jordan River, shared by Israel, Jordan, and Palestine, is heavily diverted by Israel for agriculture and urban use, leaving Jordan and Palestine with limited access. Israel’s control of West Bank aquifers further restricts Palestinian water supplies, with per capita water use in Palestine at just 70 liters per day compared to Israel’s 300 liters. This disparity fuels political tensions, with water a key issue in peace negotiations.

The Colorado River, shared between the U.S. and Mexico, is over-allocated due to century-old treaties that underestimated climate impacts. The river often dries up before reaching Mexico, threatening agriculture in Baja California. In 2023, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to temporary water cuts, but prolonged droughts and growing demand in the U.S. Southwest continue to strain relations.

Climate change amplifies these challenges. The Himalayas, the “Third Pole,” hold 15% of the world’s freshwater in glaciers but are warming at twice the global rate. By 2100, rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra could lose 20-40% of their flow due to glacial retreat.

In Africa, the Sahel region faces desertification, with Lake Chad shrinking 90% since the 1960s, displacing millions and fueling conflicts like the Boko Haram insurgency. In Central Asia, the Aral Sea’s near-disappearance due to Soviet-era diversions has left Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan grappling with salinization and economic collapse.

The global water crisis, driven by tensions like the India-Pakistan Indus Waters Treaty dispute, China’s Brahmaputra dam projects, and conflicts over rivers like the Nile and Mekong, underscores water’s potential to escalate geopolitical rivalries.

As scarcity grows due to climate change and overexploitation, these disputes could destabilize regions. Diplomacy, sustainable water management, and international cooperation are critical to prevent water from becoming a catalyst for conflict and to secure it as a shared resource for peace.

Nilim Kashyap Barthakur: MA in Journalism & Mass Communication Writer

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