World’s Population: Growing or Declining?

Dipankar Deka

The global population, a dynamic entity, is constantly growing, although its patterns vary across different regions. According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the world population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024.

Projections indicate that the population will grow by another 2 billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before slightly declining to approximately 10.2 billion by 2100. This represents a significant adjustment from earlier estimates, Which anticipated a higher peak population.

World’s Population: Growing or Declining? — World’s Population. Image: Powershift

But global population change is uneven and demographic landscapes are evolving, experiencing rapid population growth in some places and rapid aging in others, making reliable population data “more important than ever”, says the United Nations Sexual and Reproductive Health Agency (UNFPA). Announcing the report on the occasion of World Population Day.

Marking the international day, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it was key to accurately count everyone “because everyone counts.”

Uneven growth among regions:

Global population growth rates are not uniform, with considerable variation across regions. This demographic disconnect requires reliable population data for effective policy making and development planning.

Rapid Growth in Low-Income Countries: Several low-income and lower-middle-income countries have experienced rapid population growth. For example:

Niger’s population is expected to double by 2054 with a fertility rate of about 6.9 per woman. According to DESA mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected almost to double in size between 2020 and 2050, accounting for most of the global increase expected by the end of the century.

This rapid growth is expected to increase demand for resources, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where it could exacerbate environmental impacts and pose challenges related to urbanization and living standards.

Decline and Ageing in High-Income Countries: Conversely many high-income countries are experiencing population decline and ageing. Examples include:

Japan: With a fertility rate of about 1.4 births per woman, Japan’s population is rapidly declining and aging. By 2040, a significant portion of the population will be over the age of 65.

Germany: Germany faces similar challenges, where an ageing population is expected to lead to a decline in the working-age population, hurting economic productivity.

Fertility rate trends globally – fertility rates are declining. Women today have one fewer child on average than they did in 1990. More than half of countries and territories have fertility rates below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a stable population size.

In Italy, the fertility rate is 1.3 births per woman, Italy is experiencing both population decline and aging. The current birth rate for South Korea in 2024 is 6.743 births per 1000 people, a decline of 0.38% from 2023.

Several major countries are expected to see continued population growth through 2054. For example India Expected to become the most populous country, surpassing China, with growth continuing into the second half of the century.

According to the UN report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, India’s population will peak in the early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining. India’s population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054.

After this, India’s population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth.

Nigeria Projected to become the third most populous country by 2050, Nigeria’s population growth will place significant demands on infrastructure and resources.

In the United States, while growth is slower compared to low-income countries, but the U.S. population is expected to continue increasing, driven by immigration and natural increase.

Impact of population growth on Resources:

Rapidly growing populations put considerable pressure on natural resources, especially in low-income countries. For example, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are projected to double their populations by 2054, leading to significant increases in demand for water, food, and energy.

According to the UN’s 2024 World Population Prospects, countries such as Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo have fertility rates as high as 6.9 and 5.8 births per woman, respectively, further exacerbating resource scarcity. This increase in population further exacerbates environmental challenges such as deforestation, soil degradation, and water scarcity.

In addition, the combined effects of rapid urbanization and rising living standards put further pressure on these resources.

Climate change exacerbates these issues, especially in agriculture-dependent economies, increasing food insecurity and vulnerability to environmental shocks. Effective management and sustainable practices are critical to mitigate the adverse effects of population growth on resources.

Reproductive Health and Sustainable Development:

Women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are critical to achieving sustainable development. In 2024, approximately 4.7 million children were born to mothers under the age of 18, of which about 340,000 were born to girls under the age of 15.

In 2022, an estimated 13 percent of adolescent girls and young women will give birth before the age of 18, according to UNICEF data. These early pregnancies have a profound impact on the health and well-being of both young mothers and their children.

Japan: With a fertility rate of about 1.4 births per woman, Japan\'s population is rapidly declining and aging. By 2040, a significant portion of the population will be over the age of 65. — Image: Powershift

Health Implications

Early pregnancies significantly increase the risk of complications during childbirth for both mother and baby. Adolescent mothers are more likely to experience conditions such as pre-eclampsia, obstructed labor, and fistula. Their children are also at greater risk of neonatal mortality, low birth weight, and growth problems.

Education can positively impact the rapid population growth in the world. Educated women later marry at appropriate times and have fewer children, because they gain knowledge about reproductive health and family planning benefits. This reduces the fertility rate.

Education also improves children’s health, reducing the need for large families. Economically empowered through education, women can pursue careers, further reducing the birth rate.

In addition, educated individuals promote gender equality and challenge traditional norms favoring large families. By fostering informed choice and increasing economic opportunity, education effectively stabilizes population growth and supports sustainable development.

Japan: With a fertility rate of about 1.4 births per woman, Japan\'s population is rapidly declining and aging. — Image: Powershift

13-07-2024

Dipankar Deka is a student of Communication & Journalism, Gauhati University

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