Lok Sabha Elections in North-Eastern States

Lok Sabha Elections in North-Eastern States

H. Srikanth

The elections for Lok Sabha are completed in all northeastern states. The northeast sends 25 MPs to Lok Sabha (LS). Of them, 14 LS constituencies are located in Assam. While the states like Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura send two MPs each, and other northeastern states, namely Nagaland, Manipur and Sikkim, send one each. 

The northeast was in the news in the first phase of 2024 elections when violence and rigging were reported in certain polling booths in Manipur valley. In some hill areas of Manipur which went for poll on April 19, the Kukis abstained from voting.

The voters in six districts in Eastern Nagaland boycotted the elections in response to the appeal of Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO). No such incidents were reported in the elections held in Assam and Manipur during the second and third phases. Barring the incidents mentioned above, the elections in the northeast were more or less peaceful.

As expected, the voting percentage was very high in Assam. The northeastern states have to wait for a couple of weeks more to know the election results. Many poll pundits assume BJP is strong in the region and hence the BJP led NDA would sweep the elections.

But the reality in the northeast is complex. Each state in the region has its own trajectory, and political dynamics in the country vary from one state to another. Hence, it is necessary to understand the specificity of the political situation in each of the state.   

 

In 2019 general elections, BJP won in nine out of fourteen LS constituencies in Assam. Congress party then won only in three constituencies, and Kokrajhar by independent candidate Hira Sarania and United Democratic Front (AIUDF) got Dhubri constituency.

 In the 2024 general elections, BJP is contesting in 13 constituencies, leaving three for its allies – two for Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and one for UPPL. In contrast, Congress, which identifies itself as part of the INDI Alliance, contested in 13 constituencies, leaving only Dibrugarh seat to Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). Congress did not reach any agreement with other INDIA partners in Assam.

Despite the request from CPI (M) and other citizen groups, it did not withdraw its candidate from the Barpeta constituency. Other parties, like Trinamool Congress (AITC), United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Aam Admi Party (AAP) have fielded candidates in select constituencies.

Many factors appear to go in favor of BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam for different reasons. Led by a pragmatic and shrewd Himanta Biswa Sarma, BJP stitched an effective electoral alliance in Assam. On the eve of the elections, Sarma, who is also the CM, has weakened the Congress leadership in the state and ensured defection of some key MLAs and ex-MLAs from Congress to BJP.

He could neutralize powerful Muslim leaders in Assam. The delimitation exercise changed the demography of the constituencies in the state, helping the BJP to a considerable extent. Sarma exploited the locals’ fear of the illegal Bangladeshi migrants. By dividing the people on communal lines, he could neutralize the anti-CAA movement in Upper Assam, and won the confidence of Hindu refugees who had settled in the Barak valley.

Some development and welfare activities that the state and central governments undertook also favor the BJP. The charisma of Narendra Modi is still intact in Assam. Although some BJP contestants are very weak, still they can pull off in the elections because of the popularity of the prime minister, Mr. Modi. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra evoked support among some sections of people.

There is a considerable unrest among the people over price rise, unemployment and corruption. But, the Congress party could not take advantage of the same as it lacks organizational strength to mobilize voters at the grassroots. The Congress should have appeased and won over the left activist by withdrawing its candidate from constituencies like Barpeta and Lakhimpur to its left allies.

 Hence, despite the popular resentment, BJP is likely to hold on to most of the seats it won in 2019. Congress is likely to get around five seats in Assam. 

The other two states where BJP appears confident are Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh. Tripura has two LS seats – Tripura East and Tripura West. BJP is contesting in both the seats. From INDI Alliance, Congress is contesting in Tripura East and CPI (M) is contesting from Tripura West.

BJP is likely to win two seats in Tripura, thanks to the pact that it made with Pradyut Debbarma’s Tipra Motha Party (TIPRA) which is fighting for constitutional guarantees for the local tribes in Tripura. BJP defeated the left front in the last two assembly elections, but it still has some hold in pockets. But the Congress party, which depended on the tribal parties, has become weak in the state.

TIPRA won 13 assembly seats in the 2023 assembly elections. Realising the importance of tribal votes, BJP came forward to appease Pradyut Debbarma. The internal sources say that BJP was simultaneously prying on the MLAs of TIRPRA. It is rumored that Pradyut Debbarma joined the NDA government in Tripura to prevent his MLAs and cadre from joining the BJP wagon for power and positions.

On April 19, 2024, Arunachal Pradesh has gone to simultaneous elections for Lok Sabha and legislative assembly. Arunachal Pradesh has sixty assembly seats and two LS seats. The politics in the state are always volatile. The elected representatives have a tendency to support whichever party or alliance is in power at the center.

 Kiren Rijiju’s elevation as a national leader and the NDA government’s focus on infrastructural projects connecting the state to the rest of India made Arunachal Pradesh a bastion of BJP in the northeast. In the 2024 elections, BJP is contesting in all assembly seats and also for two MP seats in the state. Congress has also filed nomination for two LS seats.

But it has fielded candidates for only 20 assembly seats in the state. As the NDA allies like the National People’s Party of Conrad Sangma are also lending support to BJP, it is likely that the LS seats in Arunachal Pradesh will end up in the BJP’s kitty.

In Nagaland, BJP is in alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) led by Neiphiu Rio. In the assembly elections held in 2023, the NDPP secured 21 seats and its ally BJP won 13 seats. NDA alliance had a clear majority to form the government. But other leading opposition parties in the state also joined the government, turning Nagaland into an opposition-less government. 

In the elections for the lone Lok Sabha seat in 2024, BJP lent support to the NDPP candidate. Congress party has also put up its candidate for the LS seat. There has been a resentment brewing against the BJP-NDPP government in recent months. However, the Congress party in the does not have a leader like S.C. Jamir to steer the fortunes of the party. 

The boycott of elections in Eastern Nagaland brings down the percentage of voting in Nagaland, but does not affect the outcome. The NDPP claims it has been fighting for peaceful and honorable settlement between the Government of India and the Naga militant groups. Irrespective of whether BJP supports it, the NDPP’s victory is certain as it has enjoys the support of almost all political parties in the state and also has the backing of the Naga militants.

In the northeastern states of Assam, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, BJP-NDA has an advantage over other parties. But in other northeastern states like Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Sikkim, BJP is not a big power. In fact BJP has not fielded its candidates not only in Nagland, but also in Meghalaya and Mizoram. In these states BJP-NDA is facing contest from the opposition parties.

 In Meghalaya, there has been a fierce contest between the parties for the two LS seats. In the 2023 assembly elections, Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) formed the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA 2) with the help of the United Democratic Party (UDP) and other regional parties. During the assembly elections, BJP criticized the NPP and contested separately.

But when it failed to improve its tally, BJP had no option but to lend support to and become part of the MDA 2 government. The NPP, on its part, remained part of the NDA government at the center. From the bitter experience of the assembly elections in 2023, BJP understood it has no chance of winning the LS seats in Meghalaya. Hence, in the LS elections 2024, BJP lent support to the NPP candidates.

In return, the NPP offered support to the BJP’s LS candidates in Arunachal Pradesh. But the BJP’s decision to support the NPP seems to have damaged the prospects of the NPP candidates in Meghalaya as the move allowed the opposition parties to brand the NPP as the B team of BJP. Apart from the NPP, the UDP, which is also a partner in the MDA 2 government, has put up its candidate for Shillong LS seat. The Voice of People’s Party (VPP), which won four assembly seats in 2023, is also contesting for the Shillong seat without joining any alliance.

In Meghalaya, Congress party could have taken advantage of the anti-BJP sentiments among the voters, had it not suffered a split in 2021. Mukul Sangma, the ex-CM, left the Congress party and joined AITC. Although both Congress and AITC are part of the INDI Alliance, no seat sharing agreement could take place in Meghalaya between the two because of the rivalry between Mukul Sangma and the state Congress chief, Vincent Pala.

The weakness of Congress and AITC in Shillong parliamentary constituency has gone to the advantage of the VPP, which emerged as a potential alternative to both Congress and NPP contestants for the Shillong seat. Initially, the reelection of Agatha Sangma of the NPP in Tura constituency appeared certain.

But the consolidation of anti-BJP votes and the last minute shift of the TMC candidate’s votes to Congress candidate made the contest for Tura seat even. One NPP minister admitted, its Tura candidate may win at best with a thin majority. Association with the NDA at the center appears to have gone against both the NPP and UDP candidates. BJP has little to gain in Meghalaya.

Manipur is another northeastern state, where the BJP-NDA’s victory is not all that certain. The elections for the two LS seats – Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur – have taken place under the shadow of the ethnic clashes that took place last year, which left the people in Manipur virtually divided. BJP, which is presently the ruling party in Manipur, has fielded its candidate only for the Inner Manipur seat, and lent support to its ally, the National People’s Front (NPF) candidate in the Outer Manipur constituency.

In contrast, Congress fielded candidates both for the Inner and Outer Manipur constituencies. During the conflict, the state CM, Biren Singh, stood by the Meiteis and won the support of Arambai Tenggol, an activist Meiteis cultural organization. Hence, it was assumed that BJP would easily win Inner Manipur constituency.

However, not everyone in the valley is happy with the BJP government. A section of the Meiteis is disappointed with Modi’s indifference and holds Biren Singh’s government responsible for the continuing tensions in the state. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which started from Manipur, had some impact in the valley as well.

A section of the Meiteis is lending support to the Congress candidate, Bimol Akoijam. On the eve of the elections held during the first phase, attempts were made by Arambai Tenggol to terrorise and rig the elections in favor of the BJP. But their attempts were resented and opposed by the Meiteis themselves. Congress party has put up a spirited resistance to the BJP in the valley.

In the outer Manipur constituency, where the majority voters are the Kukis or the Nagas, the contest is between Congress and the Naga People’s Front (NPF). The Kukis who suffered the most during the ethnic clashes were divided on the eve of the LS elections. While some Kuki groups wanted to boycott the LS elections, the others supported the Congress candidate.

Not all Naga voters in Manipur are rallying behind the NPF as the Congress candidate, Alfred K Arthur, also happens to be a Naga. Not all Nagas are happy with the NPF’s truck with the BJP. There is a possibility of the Naga votes getting split between the NPF and Congress. As most Kukis have voted en masse for the Congress candidate, the outcome of the contest between the NPF and Congress for the outer Manipur constituency can’t be predicted in advance.

In the state of Mizoram, the contest appears to be between Mizo National Front (MNF) and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). In the 2023 assembly elections, the newly formed ZPM defeated MNF and formed the government. MNF was earlier with the NDA, but it came out of the NDA on the eve of assembly elections. ZPM openly advocated secular values and chose not to align with the NDA.

Congress party has fielded its candidate, but it is not powerful enough. Realizing that it has no base, BJP did not field any candidates in Mizoram. The ethnic attacks against the Kukis in Manipur compelled all the parties to disassociate with the BJP. As the main contestants–MNF and ZPM- are anti-BJP, whichever party wins as the MP, it may find it difficult to align with the NDA alliance at this juncture.

Sikkim is another northeastern state which had simultaneous elections for the state assembly and LS seats. In 2019, the lone LS seat in Sikkim was bagged by the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) candidate. That year, the SKM defeated the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and formed the government. After the formation of the government, the SKM joined the NDA.

However, in the 2024 elections, SKM is going alone with no pre-poll alliance with the BJP. Although BJP did not win any assembly seats in 2019 elections, it engineered a defection of 10 MLAs from SDF, and later won two seats in the by-elections held in October 2019. Aspiring to be a kingmaker, BJP has filed nominations for 31 assembly seats and the lone LS seat.

SDF, which suffered defection, is regrouping again. With the ex-football player, Baichung Bhutia, joining the party, SDF is again in the news. It is contesting all assembly seats and also the LS seat. Congress, which fielded candidates only for 11 assembly seats, also has a candidate for the LS seat. Although the two national parties–BJP and Congress – are contesting, the competition will be between SDF and SKF. 

In the state known for the aayaraams and gayaarams, it does not matter who among the two wins the lone LS seat. Which ever be the party that secures the lone LS seat in Sikkim, it is likely to support the alliance that comes to power at the center.

23-05-2024

H. Srikanth is the Professor of the Political Science Department, NEHU

Images from different sources [This article was first published in the Shillong Times]

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