WHICH EVENTS OF 2023 WILL SHAPE 2024? Elections, Climate Change, AI and many more…
KAKALI DAS
Do you know where the word January comes from?
From the word Janus, Roman God of Doors, the God of Transition. Janus is portrayed with two faces – one facing the past, and one facing the future – much like the month of January, where we take stock of the past as we step into the future.
Now we will discuss what the future holds, exploring the trends and ideas shaping 2024, and the themes that may come to define it. From elections to geopolitical volatility, economic forecasts to climate action, weight loss drugs to the disruption of AI, and the developments in the space world, 2024 promises to be a year of multifaceted changes.
2024: The Year Of Elections
A significant feature of 2024 will be the elections, with nearly half of the world – approximately 40 to 70 countries, representing 45% of the globe and 42% of the global GDP – heading to the polls. So, do expect a few ripples in the world order.
The electoral journey kicks off on January 7th in Bangladesh, where Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seeks a record fourth term. Meanwhile, Taiwan, just four days later, faces a crucial decision that will shape its future – a choice between alignment with China or asserting its independence. Will the winner be Pro-China or Pro-Independence? Will the result lead to war?
The current pro-US president faces a tough battle against an opposition leaning towards Beijing, turning the election into a geopolitical battleground closely observed by Washington and Beijing. And thus, when people cast the vote, they will also be choosing between China and America.
February brings Pakistan into the electoral spotlight, with Imran Khan in jail, the son of terrorist Hafiz Saeed entering the fray, and Nawaz Sharif returning from exile, aiming to reclaim the Prime Minister’s seat. Although Nawaz is banned from contesting, but the rule of law hardly matters in Pakistan.
March marks Russia’s turn, and it’s widely expected that Vladimir Putin will secure another term. However, the looming question remains – will this be his final election? At 78 years old by the term’s end, Putin would surpass even Joseph Stalin as the longest-serving Russian leader, adding intrigue to the political landscape.
As summer approaches, India, the world’s largest democracy, prepares for an extensive week-long electoral exercise. The battle is between a potential record third term for Narendra Modi and the opposition alliance. Will the opposition alliance change the game for Modi? The outcome holds implications not only for India but resonates on the global stage.
The year concludes with the much-anticipated US Presidential election, featuring a likely rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The result carries implications for the US allies worldwide, sparking questions about aid for Ukraine and the potential threat of NATO withdrawal. The global community watches with bated breath as the democratic process unfolds in the world’s superpower.
In essence, 2024 stands out as the “Year of Elections,” where ballots play a defining role, shaping the geopolitical landscape with outcomes that will resonate far beyond national borders.
So, ballots will be a big feature of 2024. Also, bullets!
2023 was the year of Geopolitical Volatility. What is in store for 2024?
The tumultuous events of 2023, marked by geopolitical volatility, have left the world apprehensive about what lies ahead in 2024. The past year witnessed a cascade of conflicts, including the Ukraine-Russia war, Israel-Hamas clashes, the Sudan War, and tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The repercussions of these conflicts resonated globally, emphasizing the interconnectedness of nations. The burning question now is whether 2024 will usher in a period of peace.
Vladimir Putin signals openness to talks, albeit with conditions, as Ukraine and the West grapple with fatigue and financial constraints. In West Asia, Israel pursues a mission against Hamas, facing increasing isolation amid a rising death toll in Gaza. The crucial juncture arises—when will America declare “enough is enough”?
Tensions escalate in the South China Sea, with Taiwan teetering on the edge. North Korea’s leader engages in war rhetoric and missile launches, contributing to the militarization of the region. The geopolitical landscape resembles a powder keg, with a single misstep capable of triggering catastrophic consequences.
Wars not only sow discord but also wreak havoc on the global economy. The Red Sea tensions force ships to reroute, elevating shipping costs and consequently raising import prices. One War is bad news for Global markets, two Wars spell doom.
Economists expected a recession in 2023 – thankfully didn’t happen. What about the year ahead? Moody’s predicts this deceleration due to the delayed impact of 2023’s interest rate hikes and weakening consumer demand. In the U.S., recession fears persist, fuelling debates over whether it will be a hard or soft landing.
China faces a loss of economic momentum, marked by foreign firms pulling out and real estate developers defaulting. The anticipated revival in 2023 did not materialize, leaving Beijing grappling with the choice between high debt and slow growth. In contrast, India and Brazil emerge as bright spots, defying the overall economic gloom. Investors and global agencies express optimism, reshaping the narrative of political power dynamics.
The ascendance of middle powers like India, France, and Brazil characterizes the evolving global landscape. As the world becomes more divided, countries face pressure to align with either Russia or the West, Israel or the Arab world. However, nations like India reject such binary choices, opting for a pragmatic approach that prioritizes stability and collaboration with multiple partners.
Russia’s modest projected economic growth of 0.7% in 2024, as forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), highlights that it remains economically resilient despite Western sanctions. The global South’s role in mitigating the impact of these sanctions becomes evident, setting the stage for similar dynamics in the coming year. Expectations point towards a continuation of these trends in 2024, shaping the course of geopolitics and the world economy.
2023 was the year of unfulfilled Climate Action. Will 2024 follow suit?
In 2023, Climate Action fell short, raising doubts about 2024’s prospects. The upcoming year is predicted to be marked by global multi-polarity, nations prioritizing individual interests. But will the world put their money where their mouth is?
Despite shared concerns, climate action may lag, even as 2024 is anticipated to break temperature records, fuelled by rising emissions and an impending El Niño. It could be the hottest year in history, costing $16 million hourly. What is the proposed solution to fix it? Another COP, COP29 next? COPs year after year, with no significant solutions at the end.
Thus, don’t hold your breath for meaningful action on this front.
Weight Loss Drugs, the new market in 2024?
In 2024, Weight Loss Drugs have emerged as a lucrative market, capturing the attention of a global population seeking effective solutions. Despite the science not being full-proof, the undeniable results, coupled with celebrity endorsements, fuel the industry’s growth. Approximately 1.1 billion individuals, constituting 14% of the world’s population, grapple with obesity-related issues, where conventional methods like exercise and diet often fall short.
Leading the charge in this competitive landscape are Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with numerous other companies poised to enter. Projections indicate a surge in the market, with over 70 obesity treatments anticipated by 2030, resulting in a staggering $77 billion valuation. The synergy between weight loss drugs and AI is set to become mainstream, marking a transformative era in addressing both aesthetic and medical challenges associated with obesity.
2023 saw the disruption of AI, will it be more in 2024?
In 2023, AI disrupted daily life, becoming integral. 2024 anticipates further evolution with GPT5’s release, surpassing its predecessors. Gemini, Google’s GPT4 rival, adds to the AI landscape. Calls for transparency, standards, and regulations grow as technology transforms work and life. AI induces job market disruption, automation, and layoffs.
Adaptation becomes crucial. Hybrid work models, immersive boardrooms, and AI language solutions redefine work. However, not all sectors embrace this change; real estate suffers. Low demand for offices slashes property values, expecting a 35% drop by 2025. A third of global office leases may expire by 2026, leading to empty offices, lower rents, and a shift in workspace dynamics.
What about the Space World in 2024?
In 2024, NASA embarks on its first Crude Luna Mission since the 1970s, while Artemis 2, set for November, plans to carry three men and one woman. Concurrently, China prepares for the CHANG-E-6 Lunar Mission, aiming to collect samples from the far side of the Moon. India, represented by ISRO, outlines an ambitious agenda with 12 major missions pushing the boundaries of space exploration.
These endeavours collectively signify a vibrant era in space exploration, featuring renewed lunar ambitions and a diversified global pursuit of scientific and technological milestones.
2024 promises excitement. Ultimately, a year is crafted by the risks embraced, lessons applied, skills gained, and choices made. The shaping of 2024 hinges on personal initiatives, moulding the journey through intentional actions.
Kakali Das is the Assistant Editor of MAHABAHU
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