Fight for 2024: Will BJP win the 2024 election?

KAKALI DAS

There are 38 seats in National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and 26 in Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) – the battle lines have been drawn for 2024.

The election winds have been now turned into a storm. Opposition alliance INDIA has a new energy, a new found angst in the parliament and outside. Will the opposition alliance give a tough fight to BJP?

Will the opposition break the arrogance of the ruling party?

INDIA alliance needs a lot more. In politics, anything can change in hours.

For an instance, the Telegu Desam Party (TDP), in 2019, had moved a no-confidence motion against BJP in 2019. Now, they are planning to join the alliance. Modi-ji had said in Bhopal that the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is involved in corruption.

A few days later, Ajit Pawar, who was called the leader of corruption by BJP, was made the Finance Minister of Maharashtra. The left and Trinamool Congress (TMC), Bengal who have been up against each other for decades, the unity and love, lately, have increased between them.

So this election confusion is not only for the voters, but big leaders are also confused on their position. But, more than unity, INDIA’s tagline and joint statement, their power on the ground is important. How much power and seats can they win?

NDA vs I.N.D.I.A.

The government often forgets this fact, but our country is diverse. And of course, there are different political equations in every state. Every state has different parties, different arithmetic, different equations. And to understand NDA vs INDIA, we need to look at every state map.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP swept Gujarat and Hindi belt, expanded in the North East, penetrated in Bengal and Odisha, and swept in Karnataka. BJP alone got 33 seats. BJP’s allies had 353 seats.

But now, after departure of Janata Dal (United) and Shiv Sena, there is reduction in seats, but not a major difference. On the other hand, the Congress party had only 52 seats. The 10% seats for the leader of opposition could not be achieved. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was struggling to cross 100.

Fight for 2024: Will BJP win the 2024 election?

If we look at the recent party meetings, 38 parties have 329 seats in NDA, and 26 parties have 140 seats in INDIA alliance. These numbers can still change, but for argument’s sake, let’s assume 330 vs 140. If such parties have around 70 seats with them, which can swing either way – this can be viewed as a non-aligned movement of Nehru. Interesting!!!

One thing is clear. INDIA will not have a chance unless the NDA tally is not reduced by more than 100 seats. Even if NDA lose 100 seats, they will still have 230, as the magic number for forming government is 272. But even if that happens, it will be good for democracy. We believe that a democracy should have balance of power.

To understand this 2024 fight, the comparison between the state is important. Let’s divide the states into three categories – states where BJP vs Congress directly fight, states where alliance partners will work, and the role of regional satraps.

BJP vs Congress

There are many states where BJP and Congress have a direct fight – here alliances won’t work as only two players are dominant. For example, Mamata Banerjee will not help INDIA alliance in Rajasthan.

There are 170 seats like these where BJP and Congress have a direct fight. In 2019, BJP won the elections in these seats in many states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and many more. It was overall an astonishing victory for BJP. In many states, BJP got more than 50% vote share – in 224 seats. Among these, majority of the seats were from BJP vs Congress’ direct fight.

BJP’s vote share in Rajasthan was 59%. In Gujarat, it was 62%. In Himachal, it was 69%. So of course, Congress lost the election. In other words, till Congress’ vote share doesn’t rise, till BJP’s vote share doesn’t fall in these seats, INDIA alliance can only dream of power. In Congress-BJP direct fight seats, unless BJP is reduced to 40-50 seats, there is no danger to them in 2024. It won’t be easy.

Undoubtedly, Congress has got a boost after the Karnataka election. Congress might be able to reduce some seats for BJP after Janata Dal (Secular) weakened. But will Congress be able to carry this momentum in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh?

And remember, this is not just about winning the semi-finals. Congress had won these three states in Assembly elections before 2019. But after a few months, in those same states, they lost their face in Lok Sabha elections.

But, after a morale boost, the upcoming semi-final elections will be crucial for Congress to understand if Congress can compete with BJP in the 2024 election.

Role of Alliance States

The second category of states – where BJP and Congress are present but with local players in their alliances. For example, Bihar, where BJP has Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Remember, LJP had two factions but both are now with BJP. Along with LJP, there are two small parties – Hindustan Avami Morcha and Vikas Shiel Insan Party. Now, this is NDA.

On the other hand, the INDIA alliance has JDU, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Left. All the influential parties in Bihar have already decided which alliance they will be in.

But if we look at the numbers and vote share, INDIA alliance will be electorally and arithmetically strong in Bihar. BJP will lose many seats because of this. Remember, BJP was an ally of JDU in Bihar. So, BJP will lose seats given this time’s arithmetic. Unless, they break some parties.

In Maharashtra, the split has been successful. Congress, Shiv Sena alliance had a good chance of winning. But now, Shiv Sena and NCP have split. But which faction will get the votes and secure victory? That is yet to be known. Because, even in alliance states, arithmetic alone won’t work. Maths is important, but chemistry is also necessary.

Let’s take Uttar Pradesh as an example. In 2019, BJP vs Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Congress wasn’t part of this alliance. In UP’s 80 seats, BJP won 62 seats – a big number. And vote share was 49.9%. If Congress had supported this union in 2019, it would not have been a different story. Because, it is not just arithmetic that works in politics.

Chemistry is also important such as – a clear agenda, a united front, a common minimum program, a good campaign strategy. All these should be with the opposition – only forming alliance isn’t enough.

So, votes are not automatically transferred. I mean, a BSP voter who does not like SP, and the SP candidate, and on top of that, he is angry that because of the alliance, the BSP candidate could not contest. They will think of voting for BJP, instead of SP – this is where chemistry comes into play.

And in UP, it is also important to see if BSP will be a part of the INDIA alliance. Because without BSP, chances of INDIA alliance reduce in UP.

Regional Satraps

There are many states where regional parties are the strongest. The election result of 2019 makes it clear that regional parties are still dominant in South and East India. There are 3 types of regional parties –

The parties with fixed alliance
The independent parties recently a part of allied parties
The fence-sitting parties – not in either of the alliance

In the first category, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and Left parties are there. DMK has been with Congress for a long time. It seems like 2019, in 2024 too, DMK Congress alliance will win seats. In Kerala, the fight is between Congress and Left. So, even though there will be no seat sharing, 20 seats will be taken by the I.N.D.I.A. alliance.

BJP has no scope there. In Kashmir, there is an old alliance between National Conference and Congress. And recently, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal have rejuvenated their old friendship. So, NDA will be the same in Punjab as 2019.

The second category includes parties that have just become part of an alliance – like TMC. It will be complicated to manage this category. So, if it is easy in Bihar, it is as difficult in Bengal. Because, the players who are already in the alliance will be replaced by a new player. Mamata wants to be supported by the opposition on all seats – and in return, TMC to support I.N.D.I.A. alliance on national level.

In 2019, Mr busy PM’s party made a historic entry in West Bengal. They won 18 of 42 seats. Now, Mamata wants to win all the seats. She wants Congress to vote for her. She wants only TMC in Bengal. But will Congress and Left agree to this? Leftists, anyway, are angry that they were brutally attacked by TMC in West Bengal Panchayat poll. And on the other hand, Sitaram Yachchuri is sharing stage with Mamata Didi.

There is less chemistry in these newly formed alliances which can benefit BJP. BJP has a lot of leftist voters as left vote share shifted. Same can happen in 2024, to defeat TMC, left voters may vote for BJP. INDIA alliance’s common narrative and seat sharing in West Bengal seems difficult.

The third category is of the regional parties. Parties that are not in either of the sides. Like Yuvajana Sramika Rythu (YSR) Congress Party and Telegu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha. These non-aligned groups are not small. Andhra, Telangana and Odissa made 63 seats – which are very important in securing power.

There are talks between TDP and BJP. Jana Sena party is also involved, which is party of Telugu film star Pawan Kalyan. YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is not particularly anti BJP. The congress party humiliated him and threw him out of the party after his father YSR’s death.

According to the analysts, the parties of Andhra will go with that who is forming government. For now, they are taking a soft pro-BJP stand. If you see the voting patterns in Rajya Sabha, you can see if their interest is with NDA or INDIA.

In Odisha, BJD is also in a similar situation. There won’t be a pre-poll alliance or seat sharing. But there may be a post-poll alliance with party in power. But the most interesting is the Telangana’s BRS. There is a triangular fight between Congress, BJP and BRS. In the 2019 elections, in Telangana, out of 17 seats, BRS, Congress, BJP and AIMIM got 9 seats, 3 seats, 4 seats and 1 seat respectively.

Even though there is a triangular fight, but here the regional party is not at number three, it is at number one.

In some cases, BJP and BRS are fighting each other directly. While Congress has got a boost after Karnataka. Many politicians are joining the Congress, making it clear number two. It is a contender in the coming assembly elections. So, BRS and Congress are fighting each other. How can they be part of INDIA alliance?

North East

In little time, BJP made its presence felt in the North-eastern region of India. NDA will try to keep their hold because North East makes a huge difference. You can see the effect of Manipur crisis in National Discourse. But if you look at the cold numbers, 25 seats are held in Lok Sabha from the North East.

In 2019, NDA got 18 seats out of 25 from the North East. So, they will try to keep up their performance. Small regional parties can switch sides but BJP has the money and muscle power.

Assam, where there are 14 seats, is also a BJP vs Congress state. In 2019, BJP won 9, INC 3, AIUDF won 1 seat, and 1 seat to an independent candidate.

Conclusion

So, looking at the numbers and alliances, some things are clear.

Congress will have to give extraordinary performance for the seats of BJP-Congress direct competition. Alliance, merely, won’t matter – what matters is the performance of Congress.
I.N.D.I.A’s arithmetic is strong in some states. Like Bihar. But INDIA is not ready in states like Bengal and UP. There is no guarantee of vote transfer, because of lack of chemistry.
Alliances do not merely depend on caste and vote bank. Chemistry is needed for vote transfer. A strong, positive, ideological and policy program is needed to inspire people.
Regional parties like YSR Congress, TRS, BJD, TDP will be very important. Local issues and politics will be important. NDA vs INDIA will need regional players. And the game plan if these regional ones are the same – they will see which way the wind is blowing and flow there.

Kakali Das is the Assistant Editor of Mahabahu

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