Karnataka Elections: How did Congress win against BJP?

KAKALI DAS

Undoubtedly, Congress has achieved a historic feat in the Karnataka Elections. With a majority of 135 seats, Congress has won in Karnataka. Even with the power of Electoral bonds, ED, Godi media, IT cell, CBI, communal politics and Modi-ji’s magic, the results are such that TV channels had to remove our Supreme Leader Modi-ji’s photo, and put J. P. Nadda’s photo on their screens. (lol)

But how did this miracle happen? How did Congress win? Why did after such money-muscle power BJP lose? What is its impact on 2024 national elections?

As per the report, in the 224-member House – Congress secured 135 constituencies, BJP bagged 66 seats, JD (S) 19 seats, and others 04 seats. The BJP increased seat share in Bangaluru – increased in number in Postal Karnataka. Congress defeated BJP in Central Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka and Bombay Karnataka. Congress defeated both JD (S) and BJP in old Mysuru region with 44 out of 64 seats.

Reasons for Congress Win

The history of Karnataka plays a major role in BJP’s defeat and Congress’s win in the state. But what exactly happened in this election?

There are 5 main reasons for this –

(1)

Grounded Campaigning – From the very beginning, Congress paid a sharp focus in the concept of welfare and development in the state. According to surveys, the primary concerns of the voters of Karnataka are unemployment and poverty. No doubt, they were frustrated with the condition, but merely because of the anti-incumbency the government doesn’t automatically change. In Gujarat too, the biggest problem is unemployment, but BJP still managed to win there. The difference in Karnataka is that the campaigning of Congress in the state was not low key. The workers and leaders of the Congress relentlessly worked on ground to raise these pressing issues of the people – accepted the burning issue of Caste Census, provided 5 guarantees so as to gain people’s trust in the party.

Congress’s 5 guarantees –

Gruha Laxmi – monthly payment of Rs2000 to women head
Gurha Jyoti – 200 units of free electricity to all houses every month
Anna Bhagya – 10kg rice, free of cost/person/month to BPL families
Yuva Nidhi – Rs3000 to unemployed graduates and Rs1,500 to unemployed diploma holders every month
Uchita Prayana scheme – free bus travel to all women across the State.

How far these promises will be executed, time will tell. After all, the execution or implementation track record of every party hasn’t been something to be proud of. But as a perception, these promises have been impactful during this election.

Alongside, Congress systematically attacked the problems or defects of BJP like – 40% commission campaign – to showcase a picture that BJP as a government is dangerous for the people of the state.

Karnataka Elections: How did Congress win against BJP?

(2)

Limited reach pf BJP’s Hindutva politics – The only focus of BJP is on the problems (which the party deemed important) like Hijab, Halal, Hindu-Muslim etc. But there was no effective positive agenda to appease voters – jumlebaaji merely won’t work each time. Had there been a solid positive agenda, people would have certainly noticed it. As per surveys, people, no doubt, understood BJP as corrupted, but their interest also wasn’t much in their Hindu-Muslim fiasco. Somewhere or the other, the life span of this Hindu-Muslim divide, this hate politics can be seen coming to an end, at least in this election.

Besides, there wasn’t more strong state level leaders left in the BJP – like there is B. S. Yediyurappa, but he is almost 80 years old to be campaigning and influencing with extreme zest and zeal. Actually, BJP as a party got extremely dependent on its national leadership which was parachuted within the state. Also, BJP’s seat share at the last moment might have increased because of the sudden visit of our Supreme Leader Modiji in the state – ignoring the havoc in Manipur, Jantarmantar. (slow claps)

(3)

Organisational Coherence – BJP, which is known for its organisational coherence, didn’t work much in this election. Congress’ performance with their state level leaders was remarkably influential – there was a strong leadership organisationally with Siddaramaiah, Mallikarjun kharge, D. K. Shivakumar. Where BJP was displaying the faces of the same national level leaders like Modiji, Amit Shah as mascots for their campaigning, Congress went ‘vocal for local’ by positioning the local home-grown leaders of Karnataka at the forefront. And this sentiment is powerful enough to have played a humongous role in Congress winning the state.

Also, the high command of Congress, Mr. Rahul Gandhi didn’t let history to be repeated, ensured not to utter bullshit to poison the efforts like in the past. There was a uniform face of Congress in each constituency in the election – even though Rahul Gandhi made his presence during the campaigns, the face of the local leaders in the posters remained the same. No matter how much of a difference there is – between Siddaramaiah and D. K. Shivakumar, they both stood united in this election.

BJP, in this Karnataka election seemed a little lost or shattered. In the 69 Lingayat dominated seats, Congress won by 45, BJP by merely 20 seats.

But, this Congress’ win is not merely based on community based politics – and this is the real game – can’t be so simply explained.

(4)

Rainbow Coalition and Class Mobilization – Congress achieved rainbow coalition and class mobilization, and this is quite praiseworthy. Because of Congress’ development oriented promises and campaigning, it gained a tremendous broad-base support in this election. Congress’ performance speaks for itself –

Lingayat dominated seats – Congress lead
Vokkaliga dominated seats – Congress lead
Muslim dominated seats – Congress lead
SC seats – Congress lead
ST seats – Congress almost clean sweep

The numbers too show that even though they had support of the traditional Congress base, but Congress also tried to assemble other communities together with them. Interestingly and surprisingly, someone from the Congress sat and calculatedly strategized every move in this election, which couldn’t be seen in the previous elections. As per surveys, women score higher turnout than men in 43 assembly seats of Karnataka.

(5)

Emerging Bipolarity – This is the last factor which makes election a marginal to historic victory. The vote shares of JD(S) decreased by 5% – meaning 17 seats less in number in this election. One of the reasons for this is that BJP tried to trespass into Old Mysuru (considered to be a hotspot for JD(S), and became somewhat successful too. Congress, also, on the other hand, was slightly benefited by their clash. Let’s consider – if due to the loss of every 10 votes of JD(S), BJP made a profit of 7 and Congress 3, it became theoretically fruitful for BJP – but the result somewhat turned out to be like Gujarat. In Gujarat – due to the divide of votes between AAP and Congress, BJP gained an increase. Similarly, in Old Mysuru – due to the vote divide between JD(S) and BJP, Congress made a sweep – 43 out of 64 seats. So many seats which were considered as a stronghold of JD(S), these are now in the hands of Congress.

These are certain factors which influenced the results of Karnataka Election, 2023.

Key Takeaways of this election

These numbers show that BJP has lost its ground in the state of Karnataka, a loss which its spokespersons are unable to digest – began insulting one another on TV. And in fact, a few anchors dismissed Karnataka election and started displaying results of UP local body elections – to prove that there is still an influence left of their leader Modiji in the states. Too much local body elections were also not telecasted – Jalandhar Lok Sabha by poll results were too not shown in which BJP secured the 4^th position.

The takeaway of Karnataka election is crystal clear to some extent –

Hindu-Muslim divide, merely, won’t work everywhere, especially in South India. It’s vitally important to flare the flag of welfare and development, and any party that won’t run an election with the ground realities of unemployment, poverty, malnutrition etc. as their primary agendas, will never be able to win an election. It’s a matter of common sense to raise local issues to earn faith and gain vote bank – communal agenda isn’t enough anymore. Hence, BJP’s Karnataka model failed miserably. C. T. Ravi, BJP’s national general secretary, who started the infamous halal food controversy and held the flag of economic jihad, lost in Chikmagalur. BJP’s B. C. Nagesh, education minister, who enforced Hijab ban and expelled Muslim students from school, got in turn expelled from his own seat. On the other hand, Congress’ Kaneez Fatima, a Muslim woman who wears hijab won from Gulbarga’s North.
The magic of Modi won’t work everywhere. National or an international party, local issues must be focused on. The leaders of the state contesting elections must be kept at the forefront in the race. Take the example of Mallikarjun Kharge, who after becoming the AICC President, was trolled and insulted as Gandhi, puppet leader, but the majority of the credit for Congress’ win goes to this 80’yr-old – he was the one who fine-tuned the finer points in the ticket distribution, party unity and campaign management in the election.
BJP can be defeated – it’s not a herculean task. And this can be done by a party like Congress too, considering the party brings a strong, positive, effective agenda to regain and get hold of the long lost trust in the people. And, there seems to be a hope that the Indian National Congress Committee is finally understanding their flaws and making amends to resolve it. Better late than never! By the way, Congress won 36 out of 51 seats covered by Rahul Gandhi in Bharat Jodo Yatra – meaning, junior Gandhi is somewhat successful in his months-long efforts.

What next? Big questions!

What will happen to Operation Kamal? – BJP’s minister R. Ashoka, before the result, declared that if plan A fails then they have plan B to work on. He openly voiced that they will come to power, come what may. (eyes roll) No constitutional morality left, it seems. Post Congress’ clear victory, BJP’s Operation Kamal (Lotus) although seems somewhat though, but there is a possibility still – Congress should better be awake.
Who will be the CM face of Congress? – Even though there’s visible majority, yet it’s unclear who will be the face of the party – Siddaramaiah or D. K. Shivakumar? Both the leaders won with major lead in their constituencies. Although both are capable of being the CM, but on the basis of seniority, Sitharamaya might sit on the throne. It would be known in the coming days, how the party resolves the internal disputes between them.
What is the future of JD(S)? Who was supposed to be the kingmaker? Will he merely remain a pawn? The destiny and future of JD(S) seems to be blurred. Nikhil Kumarawamy, son of ex-CM H. D Kumaraswamy, lost JD(S)’ safe seat Ramanagaram by 10,000 votes. It will be notable how Congress will consider to make an alliance of the local parties.
What will be Congress’ Ideology? Can Congress contest BJP in the national election? Of course, this hefty win in Karnataka has given the party a sense of confidence and boost, but to maintain this momentum won’t be easy either. The reason behind Modi coming to power again in the 2024 election is Congress’ disunity. So, whether or not Congress can bring unity into the party will be crucial. Rahul Gandhi, in his winning speech, said that on the one hand, there are power of the crony-capitalists, and on the other hand, the strength of the poor common mass – and the strength defeated the power. Furthermore, he said that all the states will witness this – Congress will stand hand in hand with the poor and will run elections on the issues of the poor. This speech showcases that Congress has gained a spark, a new focus to march forward. It will be significant to witness if Congress would step up and execute the promises made.

Hence, if Congress continues with their good work, implements it on the ground, and the country gets a strong principle opposition, there could be visible changes seen in the upcoming 2024 national election. If Congress can unite other parties together and walk forward, can bring viable alternative, and a positive agenda, then it would be interesting to watch table turn.

14-05-2023

[Images from different sources]

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